Colonoscopy and Subsequent Risk of Parkinson's Disease.

Background: Parkinson's disease (PD) is caused by the misfolding and aggregation of α-synuclein in neurons into toxic oligomers and fibrils that have prion-like properties allowing them to infect healthy neurons and to be transmitted to animal models of PD by injection or oral exposure. Given α-synuclein fibrils' potential transmission on the gut-brain axis, α-synuclein may be transmitted through colonoscopy procedures. Objective: This study examines a possible association between colonoscopy and PD. Methods: Longitudinal health insurance data of 250,000 individuals aged 50+ from 2004-2019 was analyzed. Cox proportional hazard and competing risk models with death as a competing event were estimated to calculate the risk of PD. Colonoscopy was categorized as never receiving colonoscopy, colorectal cancer (CRC) screening without or with biopsy, destruction or excision (BDE), and diagnostic colonoscopy without or with BDE. Results: We identified 6,422 new cases of PD among 221,582 individuals. The Cox model revealed a significantly increased risk of PD for patients who ever had a diagnostic colonoscopy without or with BDE (HR = 1.31; 95% CI: [1.23-1.40]; HR = 1.32 [1.22-1.42]) after adjustment for age and sex. After controlling for covariates and death, persons who ever underwent CRC screening had a 40% reduced risk of PD (CRHR = 0.60 [0.54-0.67]), while persons who underwent diagnostic colonoscopy had a 20% reduced risk of PD (CRHR = 0.81 [0.75-0.88]). Conclusions: Colonoscopy does not increase the risk of PD, after adjusting for death and covariates. Individuals who underwent only CRC screening had the lowest risk of PD, which may be a result of a more health-conscious lifestyle.

Informal care and mental health in Germany: What are the differences between non-migrants and ethnic German immigrants? A longitudinal comparative analysis.

OBJECTIVE: In aging Germany, a large part of care is provided by informal caregivers. We aimed to analyze the main drivers of the mental health of caregivers and their intersection with migration status. METHODS: Using panel data covering 18 years (n = 25,659 individuals, aged 16 to 103 years; mean age of 49.5 years) and applying linear regression models we investigated the association between informal caregiving and mental health. We compared non-migrant Germans (NMG) and ethnic German immigrants (EGI), who are the oldest immigrant group in Germany. Informal caregiving was defined as living with a person in need of care or by providing care for ≥2 h per day; the main health outcomes were mental health and mental health changes, measured by a metric scale of six items. RESULTS: Even accounting for selection into caregiving, short-term care seemed to be disadvantageous only for NMG, while long-term care was generally associated with poorer mental health, with a particular disadvantage for EGI. Socio-economic characteristics and personality traits affected mental health changes, but only weakly the caregiving-health association. CONCLUSION: Informal caregiving presents a health burden which is not explained by socio-economic characteristics and personality, but by migration status. Policies to promote health in an aging society need to consider differences in short- and long-term care provision and between migrants and the non-migrants.

Association between the starting age of non-parental Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC), and psycho-social problems in adolescence in West and East Germany - a natural experiment using data from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS).

INTRODUCTION: The study aimed to investigate the association between the start age of non-parental Early Childhood Education and Care (ECEC) and psycho-social problems in adolescence. The similarities and differences between West and East Germany were also investigated in a natural experiment. METHODS: Our sample consisted of 1022 children (621 from West Germany, 401 from East Germany) aged 3-4 years at wave 2003-2006 that were followed up to wave 2014-2017 as adolescents (mean ± SD age = 14.4 ± 0.03 years) in the KiGGS study. The psycho-social problems were measured by the parent-reported Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) at wave 2014-2017. Linear regression was used to explore the relationship between ECEC-start-age and psycho-social problems in adolescence in Germany, and stratified by West and East Germany. RESULTS: Those who started ECEC between 2 and 3 years old (reference) had the lowest scores of psycho-social problems in the whole Germany and in West Germany in adolescence. In comparison, those who started ECEC older than 3 years old had higher scores of internalizing psycho-social problems in both West Germany (with statistically significant results) and East Germany (with a relatively larger effect size but insignificant results). Those who started ECEC younger than 1 year old had statistically significant higher scores for externalizing psycho-social problems in West Germany, even though less children started ECEC younger than 1 in West Germany compared to East Germany. This significant association was not found in East Germany. Those who started ECEC between 1 and 2 years old tended to have higher scores of externalizing psycho-social problems in both West and East Germany. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that if children start ECEC older than 3 years or younger than 2 years, more attention needs to be given to internalizing or externalizing psycho-social problems respectively. The regional differences for children younger than 1 year old may suggest a selection effect in West Germany where only fewer parents bring babies to ECEC, while the regional similarities for children over 3 years old indicate the importance of providing access to ECEC for children over 3 years old.

Dementia in Germany: epidemiology, trends and challenges.

Background: Dementia poses a growing challenge for individuals, healthcare, social support, and society amidst the ongoing ageing of populations. To evaluate the care requirements and social implications of dementia in Germany, reliable statistics regarding its current and future occurrence are necessary. Methods: Using existing data sources and recent research results, this paper compiles and analyses relevant statistics on the occurrence of dementia in Germany, presents protective and risk factors, and options for care provision. Results: Recent projections indicate a potential surge in the number of dementia patients in Germany, predicted to rise from 1.7 million at present to up to 3.0 million by the year 2070. Cognitive and motor deterioration and behavioural changes associated with dementia lower the ability to live independently. These changes are often tied to social exclusion and stigma and, particularly in the severe phase of the disease, necessitate extensive medical and care requirements. This contributes to dementia being one of the most costly diseases at old age from an overall societal perspective. Currently, there are no curative treatment options available. Conclusions: To reduce the increase in the number of dementia patients and associated costs in the future, preventive approaches, particularly promoting a healthy lifestyle, may prove effective. Simultaneously, the healthcare system, society, and caregivers must prepare for the increasing number of dementia patients. Improved diagnostics, new forms of therapy, and social innovations that support those who are affected and their relatives can help reduce the burden of dementia and its associated costs.

The Impact of Sex-Specific Survival on the Incidence of Dementia in Parkinson's Disease.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study is to analyze sex-specific patterns of Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD) incidence. We are investigating the extent to which sex differences in survival after initial Parkinson's disease (PD) diagnosis influence differences in PDD risk among PD patients. METHODS: We used a random sample of German longitudinal health claims data of persons ages 50+ (2004-2019; n = 250,000) and identified new PD cases ages 65+ who were followed-up for a PDD diagnosis or death between 2006 and 2017. We performed Cox and competing-risk regression models, with death as competing event, to calculate PDD hazard ratios (HR) adjusted for age at PD onset, PD severity as measured by the modified Hoehn and Yahr (HY) scale, comorbidities, and medications. RESULTS: Of 2195 new PD cases, 602 people died before PDD and 750 people developed PDD by the end of 2017. The adjusted risk of PDD differs by sex, with men having a higher PDD risk than women. When accounting for death, men and women do not differ in their PDD risk (HR = 1.02, P = 0.770). Sex-specific analyses showed significant age and severity effects in women (age: HR = 1.05, P < 0.001; HY 3-5 vs. 0-2.5: HR = 1.46, P = 0.011), but not in men. CONCLUSION: Older age at first PD diagnosis and higher disease severity increase PDD risk, but this association is attenuated for PD men when controlling for death. This implies that the most frail PD men die rapidly before receiving a dementia diagnosis, whereas women with PD survive at higher rates, regardless of their age at onset and disease severity. © 2023 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Sporadic Use of Antibiotics in Older Adults and the Risk of Dementia: A Nested Case-Control Study Based on German Health Claims Data.

BACKGROUND: Antibiotics for systemic use may increase the risk of neurodegeneration, yet antibiotic therapy may be able to halt or mitigate an episode of neurodegenerative decline. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of sporadic use of antibiotics and subsequent dementia risk (including Alzheimer's disease). METHODS: We used data from the largest public health insurance fund in Germany, the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkasse (AOK). Each of the 35,072 dementia cases aged 60 years and older with a new dementia diagnosis during the observation period from 2006 to 2018 was matched with two control-patients by age, sex, and time since 2006. We ran conditional logistic regression models for dementia risk in terms of odds ratios (OR) as a function of antibiotic use for the entire antibiotic group and for each antibiotic subgroup. We controlled for comorbidities, need for long-term care, hospitalizations, and nursing home placement. RESULTS: Antibiotic use was positively associated with dementia (OR = 1.18, 95% confidence interval (95% CI):1.14-1.22), which became negative after adjustment for comorbidities, at least one diagnosis of bacterial infection or disease, and covariates (OR = 0.93, 95% CI:0.90-0.96). Subgroups of antibiotics were also negatively associated with dementia after controlling for covariates: tetracyclines (OR = 0.94, 95% CI:0.90-0.98), beta-lactam antibacterials, penicillins (OR = 0.93, 95% CI:0.90-0.97), other beta-lactam antibacterials (OR = 0.92, 95% CI:0.88-0.95), macrolides, lincosamides, and streptogramins (OR = 0.88, 95% CI:0.85-0.92), and quinolone antibacterials (OR = 0.96, 95% CI:0.92-0.99). CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that there was a decreased likelihood of dementia for preceding antibiotic use. The benefits of antibiotics in reducing inflammation and thus the risk of dementia need to be carefully weighed against the increase in antibiotic resistance.

The association of unhealthy and healthy food store accessibility with obesity prevalence among adults in the Netherlands: A spatial analysis.

Introduction: Obesity prevalence has almost tripled in Europe since 1980, and the obesogenic (food) environment is hypothesised to be one of the main drivers. Still, empirical evidence is rare for Europe. Objective: This ecological study explores spatial patterns of obesity prevalence of adults (aged 19+) in the Netherlands in 2016. It studies, in particular, its global associations with (un)healthy food store accessibility while assessing local differences and evaluating the importance of the immediate versus the wider food surroundings. Methods: In our ecological study, we used small-area estimated obesity prevalence (adults, aged 19+) from 2836 neighbourhoods (six-digit postal codes, wijken) and combined this with measures from Statistics Netherlands on accessibility to (unhealthy) fast food and (healthy) fresh food. Spatial lag of X (SLX) models were estimated for the entire Netherlands to explore global associations. Separate models for urban, suburban, and rural neighbourhoods and a geographically weighted regression (GWR) were estimated to explore and visualise local variations in the associations. Total associations from the SLX models were then decomposed to yield contributions of the immediate and wider food surroundings. Results: Regional clusters of high obesity were observed in selected areas in the north-east, the south-west, and south-east. Limited accessibility to unhealthy food was globally associated with lower obesity prevalence, whereas better accessibility to fresh food stores and supermarkets was not. The association regarding worse accessibility to unhealthy food was strongest for urban neighbourhoods, especially for the Randstad region. In urban settings, also better accessibility to fresh food stores proved relevant. The wider food surrounding proved more important than the immediate food surrounding, throughout. Discussion: Public policies addressing obesity might be more effective when reducing the presence of unhealthy food rather than expanding healthy food supply. Moreover, they should focus on urban regions and high obesity clusters, thereby considering wider food surroundings.

Dementia risk predictions from German claims data using methods of machine learning.

INTRODUCTION: We examined whether German claims data are suitable for dementia risk prediction, how machine learning (ML) compares to classical regression, and what the important predictors for dementia risk are. METHODS: We analyzed data from the largest German health insurance company, including 117,895 dementia-free people age 65+. Follow-up was 10 years. Predictors were: 23 age-related diseases, 212 medical prescriptions, 87 surgery codes, as well as age and sex. Statistical methods included logistic regression (LR), gradient boosting (GBM), and random forests (RFs). RESULTS: Discriminatory power was moderate for LR (C-statistic = 0.714; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.708-0.720) and GBM (C-statistic = 0.707; 95% CI  = 0.700-0.713) and lower for RF (C-statistic = 0.636; 95% CI  = 0.628-0.643). GBM had the best model calibration. We identified antipsychotic medications and cerebrovascular disease but also a less-established specific antibacterial medical prescription as important predictors. DISCUSSION: Our models from German claims data have acceptable accuracy and may provide cost-effective decision support for early dementia screening.

Stents versus bypass surgery: 3-year mortality risk of patients with coronary interventions aged 50+ in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: Due to demographic aging, the prevalence of coronary artery disease (CAD) is expected to increase in the future, resulting in a growing demand for stent and bypass interventions. This study aims to investigate the mortality risk of patients following conventional coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) or endovascular procedure by the implantation of bare-metal stents (BMS) or drug-eluting stents (DES). METHODS: Based on a random sample of 250,000 members of Germany's largest health insurance 'Allgemeine Ortskrankenkassen' (AOK) from 2004 to 2015, incident CAD patients were analyzed by Cox Proportional-Hazard models. Risk adjustment was made for sex, age, other cardiac diseases, non-cardiovascular comorbidities and years since intervention. Due to later admission of DES and thus a shorter observation time, mortality was examined for 3 years since the intervention. RESULTS: BMS represented the most frequent procedure (48%). We found similar proportions of CABG (19%) and DES interventions (23%). After risk adjustment, the models showed a 21% (p = 0.004) lower mortality risk of patients with DES and also a 21% (p = 0.002) lower mortality risk of CABG patients compared to persons with BMS. CONCLUSION: Based on a large-scale dataset, our study demonstrated survival advantages of CABG and DES interventions over BMS, with no differences between the DES and CABG groups. The results help to assess the risks of coronary interventions. Aspects of quality of life, severity of postoperative physical limitations, duration of rehabilitation, patients' preferences, and aspects of cost-effectiveness for hospitals and society should be further considered.

Does the Mortality of Individuals with Severe Disabilities Contribute to the Persistent East-West Mortality Gap Among German Men?

After three decades since reunification male life expectancy in East Germany still lags behind that of West Germany. Unlike most of the prior studies focusing on the role of socioeconomic factors, this study aims at assessing the contribution of the population with severe disabilities to the persistent East-West male mortality gap. Our analysis is mainly based on the German Pension Fund data. It is restricted to men aged 30-59 receiving disability pension (DP). We estimate mortality indicators and compare trends among populations with or without DP. We use decomposition method to quantify the effects of changes in mortality and compositional changed in the prevalence of receiving DP on the East-West mortality difference. The analysis covers the period 1995-2013. The German Socioeconomic Panel data and Cox proportional hazard models are used to evaluate the regional differences in the risk of receiving DP. Our results suggest that both the higher prevalence of receiving DP in the East and the higher mortality level among men not receiving DP in the East explain the East-West gap. The mortality difference among those receiving DP is negligible and does not contribute much to it. The observed higher prevalence in receiving DP in the East is very likely to reflect the reality as we found no regional differences in the risk of transitioning to receiving DP. The disadvantageous position of the East can be explained by the post-reunification crisis which particularly hit young men in the 1990s, selective migration from East to West after reunification, and the higher proportion of the healthier foreign population living in the West. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10680-022-09609-4.

The influence of gender on COVID-19 infections and mortality in Germany: Insights from age- and gender-specific modeling of contact rates, infections, and deaths in the early phase of the pandemic.

Recent research points towards age- and gender-specific transmission of COVID-19 infections and their outcomes. The effect of gender, however, has been overlooked in past modelling approaches of COVID-19 infections. The aim of our study is to explore how gender-specific contact behavior affects gender-specific COVID-19 infections and deaths. We consider a compartment model to establish short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic over a time period of 75 days. Compartments are subdivided into different age groups and genders, and estimated contact patterns, based on previous studies, are incorporated to account for age- and gender-specific social behaviour. The model is fitted to real data and used for assessing the effect of hypothetical contact scenarios all starting at a daily level of 10 new infections per million population. On day 75 after the end of the lockdown, infection rates are highest among the young and working-age, but they also have increased among the old. Sex ratios reveal higher infection risks among women than men at working ages; the opposite holds true at old age. Death rates in all age groups are twice as high for men as for women. Small changes in contact rates at working and young ages have a considerable effect on infections and mortality at old age, with elderly men being always at higher risk of infection and mortality. Our results underline the high importance of the non-pharmaceutical mitigation measures (NPMM) in low-infection phases of the pandemic to prevent that an increase in contact rates leads to higher mortality among the elderly, even if easing measures take place among the young. At young and middle ages, women's contribution to increasing infections is higher due to their higher number of contacts. Gender differences in contact rates may be one pathway that contributes to the spread of the disease and results in gender-specific infection rates and their mortality outcome. To further explore possible pathways, more data on contact behavior and COVID-19 transmission is needed, which includes gender- and socio-demographic information.

Potential of prevention strategies for the modifiable risk factor type 2 diabetes with relation to the future number of dementia patients in Germany- a multi-state projection through 2040.

BACKGROUND: We assess the impact of prevention strategies regarding type 2 diabetes as a modifiable risk factor for dementia and its consequences for the future number of dementia patients in Germany. METHODS: We used a random sample of health claims data (N = 250,000) of insured persons aged 50+ drawn in 2014, and data on population size and death rates in 2015 from the Human Mortality Database. Using exponential hazard models, we calculated age- and sex-specific transition probabilities and death rates between the states (no diabetes/no dementia, diabetes/no dementia, no diabetes/dementia, diabetes/dementia). In multi-state projections, we estimated the future number of dementia cases aged 75+ through 2040 depending on the development of the incidence of diabetes among persons without diabetes and without dementia, and the dementia incidence among persons with and without diabetes. RESULTS: In 2015 there were 1.53 million people with dementia aged 75+ in Germany. A relative annual reduction in death rates of 2.5% and in dementia incidence in persons without diabetes of 1% will increase this number to 3.38 million by 2040. A relative reduction of diabetes incidence by 1% annually would decrease dementia cases by around 30,000, while a reduction of dementia incidence among people with diabetes by 1% would result in 220,000 fewer dementia cases. Both prevention strategies combined would prevent 240,000 dementia cases in 2040. CONCLUSIONS: The increase in life expectancy is decisive for the future number of people with dementia. Strategies of better diabetes treatment have the potential to lower the increase in the number of dementia patients in the coming decades.

Sex and Gender Differences in Environmental Influences on Dementia Incidence in Germany, 2014-2019: An Observational Cohort Study Based on Health Claims Data.

BACKGROUND: There is an ongoing debate about whether environmental characteristics influence dementia risk like individual traits do, and whether these differ by sex and gender. OBJECTIVE: This study examines the influence of regional characteristics on the incidence of dementia and explores sex and gender differences using individual-level health information and regional characteristics. METHODS: Using a random sample of 250,000 people aged 70 + insured through Germany's largest German public health agency, we analyzed quarterly data about diagnoses and place of residence from 2014 to 2019. Using five-digit postal codes, we added data on various dimensions of regional characteristics offered by the INKAR database and the 2011 Census database. We used multilevel survival regressions to tease out regional incidence differences while accounting for spatial clustering. RESULTS: After adjusting for multi-morbidity and relocation-related selection bias, we saw that people living in regions with the highest tertile of income (HR = 0.87, p < 0.001), and who had the highest tertile of remaining life expectancy at age 60 (HR = 0.93, p = 0.012) had lower dementia risks. There was no gender difference in the regional income effect, but the effect of education (HR = 0.91, p = 0.015) was significant only for men and remaining life-expectancy was significant only for women (HR = 0.93, p = 0.026). CONCLUSION: Environmental characteristics related to wealth and health resources of a region influence the risk of dementia among the elderly in Germany. This effect is independent of the health profiles of the individuals and differs between the two genders. Health policies need to acknowledge these modifiable risk factors and consider how they affect men and women differently.

Progression to severe visual impairment and blindness in POAG patients: pace and risk factors-a cohort study using German health claims data.

OBJECTIVE: Glaucoma is a leading cause of severe visual impairment and blindness (SVI/B) worldwide. Hence, it is of utmost importance to explore relevant risk factors and study the pace of progression to SVI/B. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We used a random sample of 250 000 persons from administrative individual-level health records of the Allgemeine Ortskrankenkassen between 2004 and 2015. We identified 3535 primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) patients aged 55 and older and followed them for up to 10 years. Monocular and binocular SVI/B were defined by the ICD-10 classifications H54.0 and H54.4. Ophthalmological and chronic disease risk factors were analysed by applying a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: The risk of SVI/B in POAG patients was significantly increased by the presence of specific additional eye diseases such as secondary glaucoma (HR: 3.08, p<0.001), retinal vascular occlusion (HR: 3.00, p<0.001) or age-related macular degeneration (AMD) (HR: 2.26, p<0.001). The risk was highest in the first 2 years after the POAG diagnosis and significantly decreased after the fifth year (HR: 0.36, p=0.002). Ocular injuries, other ocular diseases, non-ophthalmological comorbidities, and age and sex had no significant influence (p>0.05). CONCLUSION: Although progression to SVI/B is relatively rare in POAG patients in Germany, one must be aware of additional risk factors, such as secondary glaucoma, retinal vascular occlusion and AMD. Regular ophthalmological examinations help prevent the progression of SVI/B, especially in the first years after the POAG diagnosis. Specific, targeted, and timely treatments for the other eye diseases could help prevent or delay SVI/B.

Social disparities in the first wave of COVID-19 incidence rates in Germany: a county-scale explainable machine learning approach.

OBJECTIVES: Knowledge about the socioeconomic spread of the first wave of COVID-19 infections in Germany is scattered across different studies. We explored whether COVID-19 incidence rates differed between counties according to their socioeconomic characteristics using a wide range of indicators. DATA AND METHOD: We used data from the Robert Koch-Institute (RKI) on 204 217 COVID-19 diagnoses in the total German population of 83.1 million, distinguishing five distinct periods between 1 January and 23 July 2020. For each period, we calculated age-standardised incidence rates of COVID-19 diagnoses on the county level and characterised the counties by 166 macro variables. We trained gradient boosting models to predict the age-standardised incidence rates with the macrostructures of the counties and used SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to characterise the 20 most prominent features in terms of negative/positive correlations with the outcome variable. RESULTS: The first COVID-19 wave started as a disease in wealthy rural counties in southern Germany and ventured into poorer urban and agricultural counties during the course of the first wave. High age-standardised incidence in low socioeconomic status (SES) counties became more pronounced from the second lockdown period onwards, when wealthy counties appeared to be better protected. Features related to economic and educational characteristics of the young population in a county played an important role at the beginning of the pandemic up to the second lockdown phase, as did features related to the population living in nursing homes; those related to international migration and a large proportion of foreigners living in a county became important in the postlockdown period. CONCLUSION: High mobility of high SES groups may drive the pandemic at the beginning of waves, while mitigation measures and beliefs about the seriousness of the pandemic as well as the compliance with mitigation measures may put lower SES groups at higher risks later on.

Diabetes duration and the risk of dementia: a cohort study based on German health claims data.

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes is a risk factor for dementia but little is known about the impact of diabetes duration on the risk of dementia. We investigated the effect of type 2 diabetes duration on the risk of dementia. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study using health claims data representative for the older German population. The data contain information about diagnoses and medical prescriptions from the in- and outpatient sector. METHODS: We performed piecewise exponential models with a linear and a quadratic term for time since first type 2 diabetes diagnosis to predict the dementia risk in a sample of 13,761 subjects (2,558 dementia cases) older than 65 years. We controlled for severity of diabetes using the Adopted Diabetes Complications Severity Index. RESULTS: We found a U-shaped dementia risk over time. After type 2 diabetes diagnosis the dementia risk decreased (26% after 1 year) and reached a minimum at 4.75 years, followed by an increase through the end of follow-up. The pattern was consistent over different treatment groups, with the strongest U-shape for insulin treatment and for those with diabetes complications at the time of diabetes diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a non-linear association of type 2 diabetes duration and the risk of dementia. Physicians should closely monitor cognitive function in diabetic patients beyond the first few years after diagnosis, because the later increase in dementia occurred in all treatment groups.

Regional Characteristics of the Second Wave of SARS-CoV-2 Infections and COVID-19 Deaths in Germany.

(1) Background: In the absence of individual level information, the aim of this study was to identify the regional key features explaining SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 deaths during the upswing of the second wave in Germany. (2) Methods: We used COVID-19 diagnoses and deaths from 1 October to 15 December 2020, on the county-level, differentiating five two-week time periods. For each period, we calculated the age-standardized COVID-19 incidence and death rates on the county level. We trained gradient boosting models to predict the incidence and death rates by 155 indicators and identified the top 20 associations using Shap values. (3) Results: Counties with low socioeconomic status (SES) had higher infection and death rates, as had those with high international migration, a high proportion of foreigners, and a large nursing home population. The importance of these characteristics changed over time. During the period of intense exponential increase in infections, the proportion of the population that voted for the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in the last federal election was among the top characteristics correlated with high incidence and death rates. (4) Machine learning approaches can reveal regional characteristics that are associated with high rates of infection and mortality.

Recurring Gastrointestinal Infections Increase the Risk of Dementia.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal infections cause significant health problems, including those affecting the immune, musculoskeletal, and nervous system, and are one of the leading causes for death worldwide. Recent findings suggest that microbiota of the gastrointestinal tract contribute to dementia. OBJECTIVE: In this nested case-control study we investigated the role of common gastrointestinal infections on the subsequent risk of dementia. METHODS: We used a longitudinal sample of 202,806 individuals from health claims data of the largest German health insurer and applied a nested case-control design with 23,354 initial dementia cases between 2006 and 2014 and 23,354 matched controls. We used conditional logistic regression to compute odds ratios (ORs) for dementia and corresponding 95%confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for potential confounders. RESULTS: The risk of dementia was increased in patients with recurring incidences of quarters with diagnosed gastrointestinal infections when compared to the unexposed population (one quarter: OR = 1.49, 95%CI = 1.40-1.58; two quarters: OR = 1.70, 95%CI = 1.51-1.91; three or more quarters: OR = 1.64, 95%CI = 1.40-1.93), adjusted for potential confounders. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that recurring gastrointestinal infections are associated with an increased risk of subsequent dementia.

Long-term exposure to fine particulate matter, lung function and cognitive performance: A prospective Dutch cohort study on the underlying routes.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to fine particulate matter and black carbon is related to cognitive impairment and poor lung function, but less is known about the routes taken by different types of air pollutants to affect cognition. OBJECTIVES: We tested two possible routes of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and black carbon (BC) in impairing cognition, and evaluated their importance: a direct route over the olfactory nerve or the blood stream, and an indirect route over the lung. METHODS: We used longitudinal observational data for 49,705 people aged 18+ from 2006 to 2015 from the Dutch Lifelines cohort study. By linking current home addresses to air pollution exposure data from ELAPSE in 2010, long-term average exposure to PM2.5 and BC was assessed. Lung function was measured by spirometry and Global Initiative (GLI) z-scores of forced expiratory volume in 1s (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC) were calculated. Cognitive performance was measured by cognitive processing time (CPT) assessed by the Cogstate Brief Battery. Linear structural equation modeling was performed to test direct/indirect associations. RESULTS: Higher exposure to PM2.5 but not BC was related to higher CPT and slower cognitive processing speed [Total Effect PM2.5: FEV1 model = 8.31 × 10-3 (95% CI: 5.71 × 10-3, 10.91 × 10-3), FVC model = 8.30 × 10-3 (95% CI: 5.69 × 10-3, 10.90 × 10-3)]. The direct association of PM2.5 constituted more than 97% of the total effect. Mediation by lung function was low for PM2.5 with a mediated proportion of 1.32% (FEV1) and 2.05% (FVC), but higher for BC (7.01% and 13.82% respectively). DISCUSSION: Our results emphasise the importance of the lung acting as a mediator in the relationship between both exposure to PM2.5 and BC, and cognitive performance. However, higher exposure to PM2.5 was mainly directly associated with worse cognitive performance, which emphasises the health-relevance of fine particles due to their ability to reach vital organs directly.