Exacerbation predictive modelling using real-world data from the myCOPD app.

Background: Acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD) are episodes of breathlessness, cough and sputum which are associated with the risk of hospitalisation, progressive lung function decline and death. They are often missed or diagnosed late. Accurate timely intervention can improve these poor outcomes. Digital tools can be used to capture symptoms and other clinical data in COPD. This study aims to apply machine learning to the largest available real-world digital dataset to develop AECOPD Prediction tools which could be used to support early intervention and improve clinical outcomes. Objective: To create and validate a machine learning predictive model that forecasts exacerbations of COPD 1-8 days in advance. The model is based on routine patient-entered data from myCOPD self-management app. Method: Adaptations of the AdaBoost algorithm were employed as machine learning approaches. The dataset included 506 patients users between 2017 and 2021. 55,066 app records were available for stable COPD event labels and 1263 records of AECOPD event labels. The data used for training the model included COPD assessment test (CAT) scores, symptom scores, smoking history, and previous exacerbation frequency. All exacerbation records used in the model were confined to the 1-8 days preceding a self-reported exacerbation event. Results: TheEasyEnsemble Classifier resulted in a Sensitivity of 67.0 % and a Specificity of 65 % with a positive predictive value (PPV) of 5.0 % and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 98.9 %. An AdaBoost model with a cost-sensitive decision tree resulted in a a Sensitivity of 35.0 % and a Specificity of 89.0 % with a PPV of 7.08 % and NPV of 98.3 %. Conclusion: This preliminary analysis demonstrates that machine learning approaches to real-world data from a widely deployed digital therapeutic has the potential to predict AECOPD and can be used to confidently exclude the risk of exacerbations of COPD within the next 8 days.

Intermittent preventive treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine but not dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine modulates the relationship between inflammatory markers and adverse pregnancy outcomes in Malawi.

Women in malaria-endemic areas receive sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) as Intermittent Preventive Treatment in Pregnancy (IPTp) to reduce malaria. While dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (DP) has superior antimalarial properties as IPTp, SP is associated with superior fetal growth. As maternal inflammation influences fetal growth, we investigated whether SP alters the relationship between inflammation and birth outcomes. We measured C-reactive protein (CRP) and alpha-1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) at enrollment (16-28 gestation weeks (gw)), visit 3 (24-36 gw) and delivery in 1319 Malawian women randomized to receive monthly SP, DP, or DP and single-dose azithromycin (AZ) in the IMPROVE trial (NCT03208179). Logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between adverse outcomes, inflammation, and treatment arm. Elevated AGP at enrollment was associated with adverse birth outcome (aRR 1.40, 95% CI: 1.15, 1.70), with similar associations observed across treatment arms, exceptions being that elevated AGP was associated with low maternal weight gain in SP recipients (aRR 1.94, 95% CI: 1.36, 2.76) and with small for gestational age in DP+AZ recepients (aRR 1.49, 95% CI 1.02, 2.17). At visit 3 there were few associations between inflammation andoutcomes. At delivery, women with elevated AGP receiving either DP or DP+AZ had an increased risk of adverse birth outcomes (aRR 1.60, 95% CI: 1.28, 2.00), including low birth weight, pre-term birth and foetal loss, this was not seen in women receiving SP (aRR 0.82, 95% CI: 0.54, 1.26). The risk of an association between elevated AGP and adverse birth outcome was higher in those receiving DP or DP+AZ compared to those receiving SP (aRR 1.95, 95% CI: 1.21, 3.13). No clear associations between CRP and adverse outcomes were observed. AGP identified women at risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. SP modifies the relationship between inflammatory biomarkers and adverse outcomes. Our findings provide insights into potential mechanisms by which SP may improve pregnancy outcomes.

Lung function trajectories from school age to adulthood and their relationship with markers of cardiovascular disease risk.

RATIONALE: Lung function in early adulthood is associated with subsequent adverse health outcomes. OBJECTIVES: To ascertain whether stable and reproducible lung function trajectories can be derived in different populations and investigate their association with objective measures of cardiovascular structure and function. METHODS: Using latent profile modelling, we studied three population-based birth cohorts with repeat spirometry data from childhood into early adulthood to identify trajectories of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1)/forced vital capacity (FVC). We used multinomial logistic regression models to investigate early-life predictors of the derived trajectories. We then ascertained the extent of the association between the derived FEV1/FVC trajectories and blood pressure and echocardiographic markers of increased cardiovascular risk and stroke in ~3200 participants at age 24 years in one of our cohorts. RESULTS: We identified four FEV1/FVC trajectories with strikingly similar latent profiles across cohorts (pooled N=6377): above average (49.5%); average (38.3%); below average (10.6%); and persistently low (1.7%). Male sex, wheeze, asthma diagnosis/medication and allergic sensitisation were associated with trajectories with diminished lung function in all cohorts. We found evidence of an increase in cardiovascular risk markers ascertained by echocardiography (including left ventricular mass indexed to height and carotid intima-media thickness) with decreasing FEV1/FVC (with p values for the mean crude effects per-trajectory ranging from 0.10 to p<0.001). In this analysis, we considered trajectories as a pseudo-continuous variable; we confirmed the assumption of linearity in all the regression models. CONCLUSIONS: Childhood lung function trajectories may serve as predictors in the development of not only future lung disease, but also the cardiovascular disease and multimorbidity in adulthood.

Intraoperative Extravascular Ultrasound in the Identification of Flow-Limiting Dissections after Balloon Angioplasty in the Femoropopliteal Segment.

Background: The BIO REACT study is designed to investigate the incremental value of Extravascular UltraSound (EVUS) added to conventional angiography, compared to conventional angiography only for the identification of Flow-Limiting Dissections (FLD) and to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the REsponse Adapted Combination Therapy (REACT) for the treatment of femoropopliteal lesions. Methods: The primary endpoints were the specificity and sensitivity of EVUS added to angiography for the detection of FLD. Secondary endpoints were primary patency of the REACT therapy within 12 months, fCD-TLR, freedom from MAE, major target limb amputations (mTLA) and survival rates within 24 months. Results: A total of 150 patients were included. EVUS added to angiography had an overall sensitivity of 29% and specificity of 93% for the detection of FLD. There was no PSVR cut-off offering a clinically acceptable trade-off between meaningful sensitivity and specificity values for the detection of FLD. At 12 months, treatment with the REACT resulted in primary patency and fCD-TLR of 81.6% and 94.3%, respectively. In addition, freedom from MAE was 94.3% at 12 months. At 24 months, the survival rate was 94.0%. No mTLA was reported up to the 24-month follow-up. Conclusions: The addition of DUS to angiography showed limited value for detecting FLD in femoropopliteal artery disease.

Chemoprevention for malaria with monthly intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine in pregnant women living with HIV on daily co-trimoxazole in Kenya and Malawi: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of daily co-trimoxazole, an antifolate used for malaria chemoprevention in pregnant women living with HIV, is threatened by cross-resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to the antifolate sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. We assessed whether addition of monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine to daily co-trimoxazole is more effective at preventing malaria infection than monthly placebo plus daily co-trimoxazole in pregnant women living with HIV. METHODS: We did an individually randomised, two-arm, placebo-controlled trial in areas with high-grade sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Kenya and Malawi. Pregnant women living with HIV on dolutegravir-based combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) who had singleton pregnancies between 16 weeks' and 28 weeks' gestation were randomly assigned (1:1) by computer-generated block randomisation, stratified by site and HIV status (known positive vs newly diagnosed), to daily co-trimoxazole plus monthly dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (three tablets of 40 mg dihydroartemisinin and 320 mg piperaquine given daily for 3 days) or daily co-trimoxazole plus monthly placebo. Daily co-trimoxazole consisted of one tablet of 160 mg sulfamethoxazole and 800 mg trimethoprim. The primary endpoint was the incidence of Plasmodium infection detected in the peripheral (maternal) or placental (maternal) blood or tissue by PCR, microscopy, rapid diagnostic test, or placental histology (active infection) from 2 weeks after the first dose of dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine or placebo to delivery. Log-binomial regression was used for binary outcomes, and Poisson regression for count outcomes. The primary analysis was by modified intention to treat, consisting of all randomised eligible participants with primary endpoint data. The safety analysis included all women who received at least one dose of study drug. All investigators, laboratory staff, data analysts, and participants were masked to treatment assignment. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04158713. FINDINGS: From Nov 11, 2019, to Aug 3, 2021, 904 women were enrolled and randomly assigned to co-trimoxazole plus dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (n=448) or co-trimoxazole plus placebo (n=456), of whom 895 (99%) contributed to the primary analysis (co-trimoxazole plus dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, n=443; co-trimoxazole plus placebo, n=452). The cumulative risk of any malaria infection during pregnancy or delivery was lower in the co-trimoxazole plus dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group than in the co-trimoxazole plus placebo group (31 [7%] of 443 women vs 70 [15%] of 452 women, risk ratio 0·45, 95% CI 0·30-0·67; p=0·0001). The incidence of any malaria infection during pregnancy or delivery was 25·4 per 100 person-years in the co-trimoxazole plus dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group versus 77·3 per 100 person-years in the co-trimoxazole plus placebo group (incidence rate ratio 0·32, 95% CI 0·22-0·47, p<0·0001). The number needed to treat to avert one malaria infection per pregnancy was 7 (95% CI 5-10). The incidence of serious adverse events was similar between groups in mothers (17·7 per 100 person-years in the co-trimoxazole plus dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group [23 events] vs 17·8 per 100 person-years in the co-trimoxazole group [25 events]) and infants (45·4 per 100 person-years [23 events] vs 40·2 per 100 person-years [21 events]). Nausea within the first 4 days after the start of treatment was reported by 29 (7%) of 446 women in the co-trimoxazole plus dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group versus 12 (3%) of 445 women in the co-trimoxazole plus placebo group. The risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes did not differ between groups. INTERPRETATION: Addition of monthly intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine to the standard of care with daily unsupervised co-trimoxazole in areas of high antifolate resistance substantially improves malaria chemoprevention in pregnant women living with HIV on dolutegravir-based cART and should be considered for policy. FUNDING: European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership 2; UK Joint Global Health Trials Scheme (UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office; Medical Research Council; National Institute for Health Research; Wellcome); and Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency.

Gastrointestinal parasite infections in Nepalese Gurkha recruits arriving in the United Kingdom from 2012-2020.

BACKGROUND: Gastrointestinal parasite (GIP) infections are a major cause of global morbidity, infecting hundreds of millions of people each year and potentially leading to lifelong infection and serious complications. Few data exist on screening for GIP infections in migrants entering the UK or on the current performance of different traditional diagnostic approaches. This study aimed to describe the prevalence of GIP infections in Nepalese Gurkha recruits screened on arrival in the UK. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We present a retrospective analysis of data from screening male adults (18-21 years) who arrived in the UK from Nepal between 2012 and 2020. Three separate faecal samples were obtained from participants at weekly intervals and processed for formalin-ethyl acetate (FEA) concentration/light microscopy and charcoal culture. Serum samples were analysed for IgG antibodies to Strongyloides stercoralis by ELISA. Results were available from 2,263 participants, of whom 463 (20.5%, 95% CI 18.8%-22.2%) had a positive diagnostic test for at least one GIP infection. A total of 525 potential infections were identified. Giardia duodenalis was most common (231/2263, 10.2%), followed by S. stercoralis (102/2263, 4.5%), and hookworm species (86/2263, 3.8%). Analysis (microscopy and culture) of the initial stool sample diagnosed only 244/427 (57.1%) faecally identified pathogens, including 41/86 (47.7%) hookworm infections. The proportion of participants infected with any GIP showed a downward trend over the study period. Log-binomial regression showed risk of infection decreasing by 6.1% year-on-year (95% CI 3.2% - 9.0%). This was driven predominantly by a fall in hookworm, S. stercoralis and Trichuris trichiura prevalence. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The level of potentially pathogenic GIP infection in young Nepalese men migrating to the UK is high (20.5%) and requires a combined diagnostic approach including serology and analysis of multiple stool samples incorporating specialised parasitological methods. Advances in molecular approaches may optimise and simplify the intensive screening strategy required.

Genome-wide association study of preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm).

BACKGROUND: Preserved ratio impaired spirometry (PRISm) is defined as a forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) <80% predicted and FEV1/forced vital capacity ≥0.70. PRISm is associated with respiratory symptoms and comorbidities. Our objective was to discover novel genetic signals for PRISm and see if they provide insight into the pathogenesis of PRISm and associated comorbidities. METHODS: We undertook a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of PRISm in UK Biobank participants (Stage 1), and selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) reaching genome-wide significance for replication in 13 cohorts (Stage 2). A combined meta-analysis of Stage 1 and Stage 2 was done to determine top SNPs. We used cross-trait linkage disequilibrium score regression to estimate genome-wide genetic correlation between PRISm and pulmonary and extrapulmonary traits. Phenome-wide association studies of top SNPs were performed. RESULTS: 22 signals reached significance in the joint meta-analysis, including four signals novel for lung function. A strong genome-wide genetic correlation (rg) between PRISm and spirometric COPD (rg=0.62, p<0.001) was observed, and genetic correlation with type 2 diabetes (rg=0.12, p=0.007). Phenome-wide association studies showed that 18 of 22 signals were associated with diabetic traits and seven with blood pressure traits. CONCLUSION: This is the first GWAS to successfully identify SNPs associated with PRISm. Four of the signals, rs7652391 (nearest gene MECOM), rs9431040 (HLX), rs62018863 (TMEM114) and rs185937162 (HLA-B), have not been described in association with lung function before, demonstrating the utility of using different lung function phenotypes in GWAS. Genetic factors associated with PRISm are strongly correlated with risk of both other lung diseases and extrapulmonary comorbidity.

Impact of sex on severe asthma: a cross-sectional retrospective analysis of UK primary and specialist care.

INTRODUCTION: After puberty, females are more likely to develop asthma and in a more severe form than males. The associations between asthma and sex are complex with multiple intrinsic and external factors. AIM: To evaluate the sex differences in the characteristics and treatment of patients with severe asthma (SA) in a real-world setting. METHODS: Demographic, clinical and treatment characteristics for patients with SA in the UK Severe Asthma Registry (UKSAR) and Optimum Patient Care Research Database (OPCRD) were retrospectively analysed by sex using univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses adjusted for year, age and hospital/practice. RESULTS: 3679 (60.9% female) patients from UKSAR and 18 369 patients (67.9% female) from OPCRD with SA were included. Females were more likely to be symptomatic with increased Asthma Control Questionnaire-6 (UKSAR adjusted OR (aOR) 1.14, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.18) and Royal College of Physicians-3 Question scores (OPCRD aOR 1.29, 95% CI 1.13 to 1.47). However, they had a higher forced expiratory volume in 1 second per cent (FEV1%) predicted (UKSAR 68.7% vs 64.8%, p<0.001) with no significant difference in peak expiratory flow. Type 2 biomarkers IgE (UKSAR 129 IU/mL vs 208 IU/mL, p<0.001) and FeNO (UKSAR 36ppb vs 46ppb, p<0.001) were lower in females with no significant difference in blood eosinophils or biological therapy. Females were less likely to be on maintenance oral corticosteroids (UKSAR aOR 0.86, 95% CI 0.75 to 0.99) but more likely to be obese (UKSAR aOR 1.67, 95% CI 145 to 1.93; OPCRD SA aOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.34 to 1.58). CONCLUSIONS: Females had increased symptoms and were more likely to be obese despite higher FEV1% predicted and lower type 2 biomarkers with consistent and clinically important differences across both datasets.

Clinical remission in severe asthma with biologic therapy: an analysis from the UK Severe Asthma Registry.

BACKGROUND: Novel biologic therapies have revolutionised the management of severe asthma with more ambitious treatment aims. Here we analyse the definition of clinical remission as a suggested treatment goal and consider the characteristics associated with clinical remission in a large, real-world severe asthma cohort. METHODS: This was a retrospective analysis of severe asthma patients registered in the UK Severe Asthma Registry (UKSAR) who met strict national access criteria for biologics. Patients had a pre-biologics baseline assessment and annual review. The primary definition of clinical remission applied included Asthma Control Questionnaire (ACQ)-5 <1.5 and no oral corticosteroids for disease control and forced expiratory volume in 1 s above lower limit of normal or no more than 100 mL less than baseline. RESULTS: 18.3% of patients achieved the primary definition of remission. The adjusted odds of remission on biologic therapy were 7.44 (95% CI 1.73-31.95)-fold higher in patients with type 2 (T2)-high biomarkers. The adjusted odds of remission were lower in patients who were female (OR 0.61, 95% CI 0.45-0.93), obese (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.24-0.65) or had ACQ-5 ≥1.5 (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.12-0.31) pre-biologic therapy. The likelihood of remission reduced by 14% (95% CI 0.76-0.97) for every 10-year increase in disease duration. 12-21% of the cohort attained clinical remission depending on the definition applied; most of those who did not achieve remission failed to meet multiple criteria. CONCLUSIONS: 18.3% of patients achieved the primary definition of clinical remission. Remission was more likely in T2-high biomarker patients with shorter duration of disease and less comorbidity. Further research on the optimum time to commence biologics in severe asthma is required.

A history of asthma may be associated with grandparents' exposures to stress and cigarette smoking.

Introduction: Within human epidemiological studies, associations have been demonstrated between grandparental exposures during childhood and grandchildren's outcomes. A few studies have assessed whether asthma has ancestral associations with exposure to cigarette smoking, but results have been mixed so far. Material and methods: In this study we used four generations: (F0 great-grandparents, F1 grandparents, F2 parents, F3 study children) of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) to determine whether there is evidence of associations between asthma in generations F2 or F3 and exposures to severe trauma in childhood and/or active cigarette smoking during the adolescence of grandmothers and grandfathers in generations F0 and F1 respectively, or of a history of a F0 or F1 grandmother smoking during pregnancy. Results: We have shown that: a) stress exemplified by the death of a F1 grandparent's parent during the grandparents' childhood was associated with increased risk of asthma in generation F3, especially if the grandparent involved was the paternal grandmother; b) if the grandparents of generations F0 or F1 smoked during adolescence (i.e. < 17 years), their grandchildren in generations F2 and F3 were more likely to have a history of asthma; c) paternal F1 grandmother's smoking in pregnancy was associated with her F3 grandchild's asthma at age 7; d) There were differences between the results for the grandsons and granddaughters of the paternal grandmother with exposure to smoking in adolescence and with smoking in pregnancy. e) The addition of all of the individual exposure variables to the different analyses often provided a considerable increase in goodness of fit compared with only adding demographic factors associated with asthma at P < 0.10 such as social class; this was particularly true when all four exposure variables were combined in one model, suggesting possible synergistic effects between them. Discussion: We have shown associations between all four types of exposure to the grandparents to be associated with asthma in the grandchildren, such that the results both depended on whether the male or female line was involved, and the sex of the grandchildren. It was notable that the paternal grandmother was particularly involved in many of the associations. We emphasize that these are exploratory analyses, that asthma diagnostic criteria likely changed over time and may not be consistent between generations, and that the results should be tested in other cohorts.

Western Australian State Trauma Registry analysis of incidence and injury patterns associated with e-Scooter injuries: 5-year retrospective case series.

BACKGROUND: Electric scooters (e-Scooters) are a form of motorized vehicle that offers cheap, efficient and environmentally friendly transportation. Increased e-Scooter utilization has been accompanied by increases in e-Scooter related injuries in multiple countries. This project describes the incidence, injury pattern, injury severity and patient factors associated with e-Scooter use from the Western Australian State Trauma Registry. METHODS: Retrospective cohort of all trauma patients captured by the Western Australian State Trauma Registry between 01 July 2017 and 30 June 2022 were analysed. Patient demographics, helmet use, reported drug use, and injury details (including principal and additional diagnoses, ISS) were collected. RESULTS: Eighty-one patients sustained e-Scooter related injuries between 2017 and 2022. Fifty-four (66%) of hospital admissions were recorded in 2021-2022, an annual percent change of 385.7% from the previous year. Most patients were male (80%). Median age was 40 years (IQR: 32-50). Helmet use was reported in 43% of patients. Helmet use was associated with a significantly lower odds of head injury (OR = 4.42, CI: 1.38-14.21; P = 0.01). Thirty-five percent of patients were intoxicated with either alcohol or drugs. Forty-four (54%) patients required surgery. CONCLUSION: E-Scooter crashes are a new mechanism of injury affecting patients captured by the Western Australian State Trauma Registry. Helmet use correlated with a reduced risk of head injury.

Fetal growth and birth weight are independently reduced by malaria infection and curable sexually transmitted and reproductive tract infections in Kenya, Tanzania, and Malawi: A pregnancy cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: Malaria and sexually transmitted and reproductive tract infections (STIs/RTIs) are highly prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa and associated with poor pregnancy outcomes. We investigated the individual and combined effects of malaria and curable STIs/RTIs on fetal growth in Kenya, Tanzania, and Malawi. METHODS: This study was nested within a randomized trial comparing monthly intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in pregnancy with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine vs dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, alone or combined with azithromycin. Fetal weight gain was assessed by serial prenatal ultrasound. Malaria was assessed monthly, and Treponema pallidum, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis, Chlamydia trachomatis, and bacterial vaginosis at enrollment and in the third trimester. The effect of malaria and STIs/RTIs on fetal weight/birthweight Z-scores was evaluated using mixed-effects linear regression. RESULTS: In total, 1435 pregnant women had fetal/birth weight assessed 3950 times. Compared to women without malaria or STIs/RTIs (n = 399), malaria-only (n = 267), STIs/RTIs only (n = 410) or both (n = 353) were associated with reduced fetal growth (adjusted mean difference in fetal/birth weight Z-score [95% confidence interval]: malaria = -0.18 [-0.31,-0.04], P = 0.01; STIs/RTIs = -0.14 [-0.26,-0.03], P = 0.01; both = -0.20 [-0.33,-0.07], P = 0.003). Paucigravidae experienced the greatest impact. CONCLUSION: Malaria and STIs/RTIs are associated with poor fetal growth especially among paucigravidae women with dual infections. Integrated antenatal interventions are needed to reduce the burden of both malaria and STIs/RTIs.

Impact of SARS-CoV-2 infective exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease on clinical outcomes in a prospective cohort study of hospitalised adults.

OBJECTIVES: To determine whether acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) triggered by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), have worse outcomes than AECOPD caused by other infectious agents or non-infective AECOPD (NI-COPD). DESIGN: A two-hospital prospective cohort study of adults hospitalised with acute respiratory disease. We compared outcomes with AECOPD and a positive test for SARS-CoV-2 (n = 816), AECOPD triggered by other infections (n = 3038) and NI-COPD (n = 994). We used multivariable modelling to adjust for potential confounders and assessed variation by seasons associated with different SARS-CoV-2 variants. SETTING: Bristol UK, August 2020-May 2022. PARTICIPANTS: Adults (≥18 y) hospitalised with AECOPD. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: We determined the risk of positive pressure support, longer hospital admission and mortality following hospitalisation with AECOPD due to non-SARS-CoV-2 infection compared with SARS-CoV-2 AECOPD and NI-COPD. RESULTS: Patients with SARS-CoV-2 AECOPD, in comparison to non-SARS-CoV-2 infective AECOPD or NI-COPD, more frequently required positive pressure support (18.5% and 7.5% vs. 11.7%, respectively), longer hospital stays (median [interquartile range, IQR]: 7 [3-15] and 5 [2-10] vs. 4 [2-9] days, respectively) and had higher 30-day mortality (16.9% and 11.1% vs. 5.9%, respectively) (all p < 0.001). In adjusted analyses, SARS-CoV-2 AECOPD was associated with a 55% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 24-93), 26% (95% CI: 15-37) and 35% (95% CI: 10-65) increase in the risk of positive pressure support, hospitalisation length and 30-day mortality, respectively, relative to non-SARS-CoV-2 infective AECOPD. The difference in risk remained similar during periods of wild-type, Alpha and Delta SARS-CoV-2 strain dominance, but diminished during Omicron dominance. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-CoV-2-related AECOPD had worse patient outcomes compared with non-SARS-CoV-2 AECOPD or NI-AECOPD, although the difference in risks was less pronounced during Omicron dominance.

Surveillance towards preventing paediatric incidence of respiratory syncytial virus attributable respiratory tract infection in primary and secondary/tertiary healthcare settings in Merseyside, Cheshire and Bristol, UK.

INTRODUCTION: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common respiratory virus, particularly affecting children, and can cause respiratory infections such as croup and bronchiolitis. The latter is a leading cause of paediatric hospitalisation within the UK. Children <3 years of age and/or with underlying health conditions are more vulnerable to severe RSV infection.There are currently limited data on the incidence of laboratory-confirmed RSV, particularly within primary care settings and outside the typical 'RSV season', which in the Northern hemisphere tends to coincide with winter months. There is also a lack of data on the health economic impact of RSV infection on families and healthcare systems.This observational surveillance study aims to collect data on the incidence of laboratory-confirmed RSV-attributable respiratory tract infection (RTI) in children aged <3 years presenting to primary, secondary or tertiary care; it also aims to estimate the health economic and quality of life impact of RSV-attributable infection in this cohort. Such data will contribute to informing public health strategies to prevent RSV-associated infection, including use of preventative medications. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Parents/carers of children <3 years of age with RTI symptoms will consent for a respiratory sample (nasal swab) to be taken. Laboratory PCR testing will assess for the presence of RSV and/or other pathogens. Data will be obtained from medical records on demographics, comorbidities, severity of infection and hospitalisation outcomes. Parents will complete questionnaires on the impact of ongoing infection symptoms at day 14 and 28 following enrolment. The primary outcome is incidence of laboratory-confirmed RSV in children <3 years presenting to primary, secondary or tertiary care with RTI symptoms leading to health-seeking behaviours. Recruitment will be carried out from December 2021 to March 2023, encompassing two UK winter seasons and intervening months. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been granted (21/WS/0142), and study findings will be published as per International Committee of Medical Journal Editors' guidelines.

Lung function and cognitive ability in children: a UK birth cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Decreased adult lung function is associated with subsequent impairment in cognition. A similar relationship in early life could be of great policy importance, since childhood cognitive ability determines key adult outcomes, including socioeconomic status and mortality. We aimed to expand the very limited data available on this relationship in children, and hypothesised that reduced lung function would be longitudinally associated with decreased cognitive ability. METHODS: Lung function was measured at age 8 (forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC); % predicted), and cognitive ability was measured at ages 8 (Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, third edition) and 15 (Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence), in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Potential confounders were identified as preterm birth, birth weight, breastfeeding duration, prenatal maternal smoking, childhood environmental tobacco smoke exposure, socioeconomic status and prenatal/childhood air pollution exposure. Univariable and multivariable linear models (n range=2332-6672) were fitted to assess the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of lung function with cognitive ability, and change in cognitive ability between ages 8 and 15. RESULTS: In univariate analyses, both FEV1 and FVC at age 8 were associated with cognitive ability at both ages, but after adjustment, only FVC was associated with full-scale IQ (FSIQ) at ages 8 (ß=0.09 (95% CI 0.05 to 0.12; p<0.001)) and 15 (ß=0.06 (0.03 to 0.10; p=0.001)). We did not find evidence of an association between either lung function parameter and interval change in standardised FSIQ. DISCUSSION: Reduced FVC, but not FEV1, is independently associated with decreased cognitive ability in children. This low-magnitude association attenuates between ages 8 and 15, while no association is evident with longitudinal change in cognitive ability. Our results support a link between FVC and cognition across the life course, possibly due to shared genetic or environmental risk, rather than causation.

Effect of monthly intermittent preventive treatment with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine with and without azithromycin versus monthly sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine on adverse pregnancy outcomes in Africa: a double-blind randomised, partly placebo-controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment in pregnancy (IPTp) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine is more effective than IPTp with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine at reducing malaria infection during pregnancy in areas with high-grade resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine by Plasmodium falciparum in east Africa. We aimed to assess whether IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, alone or combined with azithromycin, can reduce adverse pregnancy outcomes compared with IPTp with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine. METHODS: We did an individually randomised, double-blind, three-arm, partly placebo-controlled trial in areas of high sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance in Kenya, Malawi, and Tanzania. HIV-negative women with a viable singleton pregnancy were randomly assigned (1:1:1) by computer-generated block randomisation, stratified by site and gravidity, to receive monthly IPTp with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (500 mg of sulfadoxine and 25 mg of pyrimethamine for 1 day), monthly IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (dosed by weight; three to five tablets containing 40 mg of dihydroartemisinin and 320 mg of piperaquine once daily for 3 consecutive days) plus a single treatment course of placebo, or monthly IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus a single treatment course of azithromycin (two tablets containing 500 mg once daily for 2 consecutive days). Outcome assessors in the delivery units were masked to treatment group. The composite primary endpoint was adverse pregnancy outcome, defined as fetal loss, adverse newborn baby outcomes (small for gestational age, low birthweight, or preterm), or neonatal death. The primary analysis was by modified intention to treat, consisting of all randomised participants with primary endpoint data. Women who received at least one dose of study drug were included in the safety analyses. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03208179. FINDINGS: From March-29, 2018, to July 5, 2019, 4680 women (mean age 25·0 years [SD 6·0]) were enrolled and randomly assigned: 1561 (33%; mean age 24·9 years [SD 6·1]) to the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine group, 1561 (33%; mean age 25·1 years [6·1]) to the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group, and 1558 (33%; mean age 24·9 years [6.0]) to the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus azithromycin group. Compared with 335 (23·3%) of 1435 women in the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine group, the primary composite endpoint of adverse pregnancy outcomes was reported more frequently in the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group (403 [27·9%] of 1442; risk ratio 1·20, 95% CI 1·06-1·36; p=0·0040) and in the dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus azithromycin group (396 [27·6%] of 1433; 1·16, 1·03-1·32; p=0·017). The incidence of serious adverse events was similar in mothers (sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine group 17·7 per 100 person-years, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group 14·8 per 100 person-years, and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus azithromycin group 16·9 per 100 person-years) and infants (sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine group 49·2 per 100 person-years, dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine group 42·4 per 100 person-years, and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus azithromycin group 47·8 per 100 person-years) across treatment groups. 12 (0·2%) of 6685 sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, 19 (0·3%) of 7014 dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine, and 23 (0·3%) of 6849 dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine plus azithromycin treatment courses were vomited within 30 min. INTERPRETATION: Monthly IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine did not improve pregnancy outcomes, and the addition of a single course of azithromycin did not enhance the effect of monthly IPTp with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine. Trials that combine sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for IPTp should be considered. FUNDING: European & Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership 2, supported by the EU, and the UK Joint-Global-Health-Trials-Scheme of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, Medical Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care, Wellcome, and the Bill-&-Melinda-Gates-Foundation.

Pooling of sputum samples to increase tuberculosis diagnostic capacity in Brazil during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: We assessed whether combining (pooling) four individual's samples and testing with Xpert Ultra has the same accuracy as testing samples individually as a more efficient testing method. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study of individuals with presumptive tuberculosis attending primary health care or general hospital facilities in Alagoas, Brazil. The sputum samples of four consecutive individuals were pooled and the pool and individual samples were tested with Xpert Ultra. The agreement of the tests was compared using kappa statistics. We estimated the sensitivity and specificity of pooling using the individual test as the reference standard and potential cartridge savings. RESULTS: A total of 396 participants were tested. A total of 95 (24.0%) individual samples were Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB)-positive, 300 (75.8%) "MTB not detected", including 20 "MTB trace", and one reported an error. A total of 99 pools of four samples were tested, of which 62 (62.6%) had MTB detected and 37 (37.4%) MTB not detected, including six (6.1%) with MTB trace. The agreement between individual and pooled testing was 96.0%. Pooling had a sensitivity of 95.0% (95% confidence interval 86.9-99%), specificity of 97.1% (95% confidence interval 85.1-99.9%), and kappa of 0.913. The method saved 12.4% of cartridge costs. CONCLUSION: The pooled testing of specimens had a high level of agreement with individual testing. The pooling of samples for testing improves the efficiency of testing, potentially enabling the screening and testing of larger numbers of individuals more cost-effectively.

A novel algorithm for classification of interatrial communications within the oval fossa in the newborn.

BACKGROUND: An interatrial communication is present in most neonates. The majority are considered the "normal" patency of the oval foramen, while a minority are abnormal atrial septal defects. Differentiation between the two with transthoracic echocardiography may be challenging, and no generally accepted method of classification is presently available. We aimed to develop and determine the reliability of a new classification of interatrial communications in newborns. METHODS AND RESULTS: An algorithm was developed based on echocardiographic criteria from 495 newborns (median age 11[8;13] days, 51.5% females). The algorithm defines three main categories: patency of the oval foramen, atrial septal defect, and no interatrial communication as well as several subtypes. We found an interatrial communication in 414 (83.6%) newborns. Of these, 386 (93.2%) were categorised as patency of the oval foramen and 28 (6.8%) as atrial septal defects.Echocardiograms from another 50 newborns (median age 11[8;13] days, 36.0% female), reviewed by eight experts in paediatric echocardiography, were used to assess the inter- and intraobserver variation of classification of interatrial communications into patency of the oval foramen and atrial septal defect, with and without the use of the algorithm. Review with the algorithm gave a substantial interobserver agreement (kappa = 0.66), and an almost perfect intraobserver agreement (kappa = 0.82). Without the use of the algorithm, the interobserver agreement between experienced paediatric cardiologists was low (kappa = 0.20). CONCLUSION: A new algorithm for echocardiographic classification of interatrial communications in newborns produced almost perfect intraobserver and substantial interobserver agreement. The algorithm may prove useful in both research and clinical practice.

Biologic therapy practices in severe asthma; outcomes from the UK Severe Asthma Registry and survey of specialist opinion.

BACKGROUND: several biological treatments have become available for management of severe asthma. There is a significant overlap in the indication of these treatments with lack of consensus on the first-line biologic choice and switching practice in event of treatment failure. AIMS: to evaluate outcomes of biologic treatments through analysis of the UK Severe Asthma Registry (UKSAR), and survey of the UK severe asthma specialists' opinion. METHODS: patients registered in the UKSAR database and treated with biologics for severe asthma in the period between January 2014 and August 2021, were studied to explore biologic treatments practice. This was complemented by survey of opinion of severe asthma specialists. RESULTS: a total of 2,490 patients from 10 severe asthma centres were included in the study (mean age 51.3 years, 61.1% female, mean BMI 30.9kg/m2 ). Biologics use included mepolizumab 1,115 (44.8%), benralizumab 925 (37.1%), omalizumab 432 (17.3%), dupilumab 13 (0.5%), and reslizumab 5 (0.2%). Patients on omalizumab were younger and had earlier age of onset asthma than those prescribed mepolizumab or benralizumab. Patients prescribed mepolizumab and benralizumab had similar clinical characteristics. Those on benralizumab were more likely to continue treatment at approximately one year follow up (93.9%), than those on mepolizumab (80%), or omalizumab (69.6%). The first choice biologic differed between centres and changed over the study time period. Experts' opinion also diverged in terms of biologic initiation choice and switching practice. CONCLUSION: We observed significant variation and divergence in the prescribing practices of biologics in severe asthma that necessitates further research and standardisation.

Pooled testing of sputum with Xpert MTB/RIF and Xpert Ultra during tuberculosis active case finding campaigns in Lao People's Democratic Republic.

INTRODUCTION: Active case finding (ACF) of individuals with tuberculosis (TB) is a key intervention to find the 30% of people missed every year. However, ACF requires screening large numbers of individuals who have a low probability of positive results, typically <5%, which makes using the recommended molecular tests expensive. METHODS: We conducted two ACF surveys (in 2020 and 2021) in high TB burden areas of Lao PDR. Participants were screened for TB symptoms and received a chest X-ray. Sputum samples of four consecutive individuals were pooled and tested with Xpert Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB)/rifampicin (RIF) (Xpert-MTB/RIF) (2020) or Xpert-Ultra (2021). The agreement of the individual and pooled samples was compared and the reasons for discrepant results and potential cartridge savings were assessed. RESULTS: Each survey included 436 participants, which were tested in 109 pools. In the Xpert-MTB/RIF survey, 25 (sensitivity 89%, 95% CI 72.8% to 96.3%) of 28 pools containing MTB-positive samples tested positive and 81 pools containing only MTB-negative samples tested negative (specificity 100%, 95% CI 95.5% to 100%). In the Xpert-Ultra survey, all 32 (sensitivity 100%, 95% CI 89.3% to 100%) pools containing MTB-positive samples tested positive and all 77 (specificity 100%, 95% CI 95.3% to 100%) containing only MTB-negative samples tested negative. Pooling with Xpert-MTB/RIF and Xpert-Ultra saved 52% and 46% (227/436 and 199/436, respectively) of cartridge costs alone. CONCLUSION: Testing single and pooled specimens had a high level of agreement, with complete concordance when using Xpert-Ultra. Pooling samples could generate significant cartridge savings during ACF campaigns.