Changes in cold-related mortalities between 1995 and 2016 in South East England.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study was to examine trends in cold-related mortalities between 1995 and 2016. STUDY DESIGN: This is a longitudinal mortality study. METHODS: For men and women aged 65-74 years or those older than 85 years in South East England, the relationship between daily mortality (deaths per million population) and outdoor temperatures below 18 °C, with allowance for influenza epidemics, was assessed by linear regression on an annual basis. The regression coefficients were expressed as a percentage of the mortality at 18 °C to adjust for changes in mortality through health care. Trends in 'specific' cold-related mortalities were then examined over two periods, 1977-1994 and 1995-2016. RESULTS: In contrast to the early period, annual trends in cold-related specific mortalities showed no decline between 1995 and 2016. 'Specific' cold-related mortality of women, but not men, in the age group older than 85 years showed a significant increase over the 1995-2016 period, which was different from the trend over the earlier period (P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: Despite state-funded benefits to help alleviate fuel poverty and public health advice, very elderly women appear to be at increasing risk of cold-related mortality-greater help may be necessary.

Misspecification of at-risk periods and distributional assumptions in estimating COPD exacerbation rates: The resultant bias in treatment effect estimation.

In trials comparing the rate of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation between treatment arms, the rate is typically calculated on the basis of the whole of each patient's follow-up period. However, the true time a patient is at risk should exclude periods in which an exacerbation episode is occurring, because a patient cannot be at risk of another exacerbation episode until recovered. We used data from two chronic obstructive pulmonary disease randomized controlled trials and compared treatment effect estimates and confidence intervals when using two different definitions of the at-risk period. Using a simulation study we examined the bias in the estimated treatment effect and the coverage of the confidence interval, using these two definitions of the at-risk period. We investigated how the sample size required for a given power changes on the basis of the definition of at-risk period used. Our results showed that treatment efficacy is underestimated when the at-risk period does not take account of exacerbation duration, and the power to detect a statistically significant result is slightly diminished. Correspondingly, using the correct at-risk period, some modest savings in required sample size can be achieved. Using the proposed at-risk period that excludes recovery times requires formal definitions of the beginning and end of an exacerbation episode, and we recommend these be always predefined in a trial protocol.

Use of home oxygen for children in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: With the introduction of a standardised ordering system in February 2006, the opportunity arose to collect data on children requiring home oxygen in England and Wales. The authors' aim was to determine the incidence and patterns of home oxygen prescribing. METHODS: A paediatric home oxygen clinical network and the Children's Home Oxygen Record Database were established. During a 3-year period (February 2006 to January 2009), prescribers were requested to submit copies of the Home Oxygen Order Forms. In addition, anonymised point prevalence data on all patients currently receiving home oxygen in June 2007 were obtained from the four provider companies. RESULTS: Children's Home Oxygen Record Database--Forms were analysed for 888 children <16 years (58% boys) with a median age of 4.1 months; 656 (74%) were <1 year. 541 (68%) had a diagnosis of chronic neonatal lung disease; 53 (7%), neurodisability; and 49 (6%), cardiac disease. Order forms were often incomplete, and prescribing practice was variable. Provider's cross-sectional survey--There were 3338 children <16 years, representing 4% of all patients on home oxygen. Median age was 3.1 years with a peak at 6 months. The prevalence for paediatric home oxygen use in England and Wales was 0.33 per 1000, with a peak of 1.08 per 1000 for those <1 year. Marked regional variation was noted. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first national dataset available for children prescribed home oxygen in England and Wales. The study emphasises the need for a coordinated approach to home oxygen prescribing and justifies the recent publication of evidence-based guidelines.

Predictive accuracy of patient-reported exacerbation frequency in COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbation frequency is important for clinical risk assessment and trial recruitment. In order to accurately establish exacerbation frequency, patients need to be followed for 1 yr, although this is not always practical. 1) Patient recall of exacerbation number during the year prior to recruitment to the London COPD cohort was compared with the number of exacerbations recorded on diary cards during the subsequent year; and 2) patient recall of their exacerbation number after 1 yr of follow-up was compared with documented exacerbations over the same year. A total of 267 patients (forced expiratory volume in 1 s 1.14 L) recorded worsening of respiratory symptoms on daily diary cards for 1 yr. Exacerbations were defined according to previously validated criteria. There was no difference between the exacerbation number recalled by patients prior to recruitment and the number detected during the first year (median 2.0 (interquartile range 1.0-4.0) and 2.0 (1.0-4.0); expected agreement 76.4%; agreement 84.6%; κ = 0.3469). There was no difference between the number of exacerbations remembered by patients and the number recorded on diary cards over the same 1-yr period (2.0 (1.0-4.0) for both groups; expected agreement 74.9%; actual agreement 93.3%; κ = 0.6146). Patients remember the number of exacerbations they have in a year. Accuracy is increased when comparing the same 1-yr period. Patient recall is sufficiently robust for stratification into frequent and infrequent exacerbator groups for subsequent years.

Relationship between depression and exacerbations in COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is associated with exacerbations. Some patients are prone to frequent exacerbations and these individuals have a worse quality of life, greater limitation of their daily activity and faster disease progression than patients with less frequent exacerbations. A prospective study in a well-characterised cohort was performed and it was assessed whether depression, as determined by the Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, was related to exacerbation frequency, systemic inflammation and various social factors. The associations of any increase in depressive symptoms at exacerbation were also investigated. Frequent exacerbators had a significantly higher median (interquartile range) baseline depression score than infrequent exacerbators (17.0 (7.0-25.0) and 12.0 (6.0-18.0), respectively). Depressed patients spend significantly less time outdoors and had significantly worse quality of life as measured by the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire. Depression increased significantly in patients from baseline to exacerbation (12.5 (5.0-19.0) and 19.5 (12.0-28.0) respectively). The present study is the first to show a relationship between depression and exacerbation frequency in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The finding that frequent exacerbators are more depressed than infrequent exacerbators is relevant, as exacerbation frequency is an important outcome measure in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

Effect of tiotropium on sputum and serum inflammatory markers and exacerbations in COPD.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients experiencing frequent exacerbations demonstrate increased stable-state airway inflammation. Tiotropium has been shown to reduce exacerbation frequency, but its effect on airway inflammation is unknown. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of tiotropium on sputum inflammatory markers and exacerbation frequency. Patients (n = 142) were randomised to receive tiotropium or placebo in addition to their usual medication for 1 yr. Sputum and serum cytokines were assayed by ELISA and exacerbation frequency calculated using a symptom-based diary. There was no difference in the area under the curve for sputum interleukin (IL)-6 or myeloperoxidase between the groups, but sputum IL-8 level was increased in the tiotropium arm. There was no difference between start and end of study in serum IL-6 or C-reactive protein level. Tiotropium was associated with a 52% reduction in exacerbation frequency (1.17 versus 2.46 exacerbations.yr(-1)). Of patients on tiotropium, 43% experienced at least one exacerbation, compared with 64% on placebo. The total number of exacerbation days was reduced compared with placebo (17.3 versus 34.5 days). Tiotropium reduces exacerbation frequency in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, but this effect does not appear to be due to a reduction in airway or systemic inflammation.

Inflammatory changes, recovery and recurrence at COPD exacerbation.

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations are associated with increased airway and systemic inflammation, though relationships between exacerbation recovery, recurrent exacerbation and inflammation have not been previously reported. In the present study, inflammatory changes at COPD exacerbations were related to clinical nonrecovery and recurrent exacerbations within 50 days. Serum interleukin (IL)-6, C-reactive protein (CRP), sputum IL-6 and IL-8 were measured in 73 COPD patients when stable, at exacerbation and at 7, 14 and 35 days post-exacerbation. In 23% of patients, symptoms did not recover to baseline by day 35. These patients had persistently higher levels of serum CRP during the recovery period. A total of 22% of the patients who had recurrent exacerbations within 50 days had significantly higher levels of serum CRP at day 14, compared with those without recurrences: 8.8 mg.L(-1) versus 3.4 mg.L(-1). Frequent exacerbators had a smaller reduction in systemic inflammation between exacerbation onset and day 35 compared with infrequent exacerbators. Nonrecovery of symptoms at chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation is associated with persistently heightened systemic inflammation. The time course of systemic inflammation following exacerbation is different between frequent and infrequent exacerbators. A high serum C-reactive protein concentration 14 days after an index exacerbation may be used as a predictor of recurrent exacerbations within 50 days.

COPD exacerbations .1: Epidemiology.

The epidemiology of exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is reviewed with particular reference to the definition, frequency, time course, natural history and seasonality, and their relationship with decline in lung function, disease severity and mortality. The importance of distinguishing between recurrent and relapsed exacerbations is discussed.

Effects of exacerbations and seasonality on exhaled nitric oxide in COPD.

Exhaled nitric oxide (eNO) appears to be associated with airway inflammation seen in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The present authors studied the effects of exacerbation, season, temperature and pollution on eNO. eNO was measured seasonally and at exacerbations in 79 outpatients suffering from COPD (mean forced expiratory volume in one second=42%). The effects of exacerbation symptoms, physiological and environmental parameters were analysed. Stable eNO levels were correlated positively with arterial oxygen tension. Median levels were found to be lower in smokers (5.3 ppb) than in ex- or nonsmokers (6.8 ppb). Levels were higher during October to December (6.9 ppb) than in April to June (4.6 ppb). Levels were also higher during 68 exacerbations in 38 patients (7.4 ppb) than in stable conditions (5.4 ppb), independent of the effects of smoking. The rise in eNO was greater in exacerbations that were associated with colds, a sore throat or dyspnoea combined with a cold. In conclusion, exhaled nitric oxide levels were higher in colder weather and in the autumn, perhaps related to the increased prevalence of viral infection at this time of year. The levels were lower in more severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Exhaled nitric oxide levels were raised at the onset of exacerbation, particularly in the presence of a cold.

MMP-9, TIMP-1 and inflammatory cells in sputum from COPD patients during exacerbation.

BACKGROUND: Irreversible airflow obstruction in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) is thought to result from airway remodelling associated with aberrant inflammation. Patients who experience frequent episodes of acute deterioration in symptoms and lung function, termed exacerbations, experience a faster decline in their lung function, and thus over time greater disease severity However the mechanisms by which these episodes may contribute to decreased lung function are poorly understood. This study has prospectively examined changes in sputum levels of inflammatory cells, MMP-9 and TIMP-1 during exacerbations comparing with paired samples taken prior to exacerbation. METHODS: Nineteen COPD patients ((median, [IQR]) age 69 [63 to 74], forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) 1.0 [0.9 to 1.2], FEV1% predicted 37.6 [27.3 to 46.2]) provided sputa at exacerbation. Of these, 12 were paired with a samples collected when the patient was stable, a median 4 months [2 to 8 months] beforehand. RESULTS: MMP-9 levels increased from 10.5 microg/g [1.2 to 21.1] prior to exacerbation to 17.1 microg/g [9.3 to 48.7] during exacerbation (P < 0.01). TIMP-1 levels decreased from 3.5 microg/g [0.6 to 7.8] to 1.5 microg/g [0.3 to 4.9] (P = 0.16). MMP-9/TIMP-1 Molar ratio significantly increased from 0.6 [0.2 to 1.1] to 3.6 [2.0 to 25.3] (P < 0.05). Neutrophil, eosinophil and lymphocyte counts all showed significant increase during exacerbation compared to before (P < 0.05). Macrophage numbers remained level. MMP-9 levels during exacerbation showed highly significant correlation with both neutrophil and lymphocyte counts (Rho = 0.7, P < 0.01). CONCLUSION: During exacerbation, increased inflammatory burden coincides with an imbalance of the proteinase MMP-9 and its cognate inhibitor TIMP-1. This may suggest a pathway connecting frequent exacerbations with lung function decline.

Effects of exacerbations and seasonality on exhaled nitric oxide in COPD

Exhaled nitric oxide (eNO) appears to be associated with airway inflammation seen in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The present authors studied the effects of exacerbation, season, temperature and pollution on eNO. eNO was measured seasonally and at exacerbations in 79 outpatients suffering from COPD (mean forced expiratory volume in one second = 42%). The effects of exacerbation symptoms, physiological and environmental parameters were analysed. Stable eNO levels were correlated positively with arterial oxygen tension. Median levels were found to be lower in smokers (5.3 ppb) than in ex- or nonsmokers (6.8 ppb). Levels were higher during October to December (6.9 ppb) than in April to June (4.6 ppb). Levels were also higher during 68 exacerbations in 38 patients (7.4 ppb) than in stable conditions (5.4 ppb), independent of the effects of smoking. The rise in eNO was greater in exacerbations that were associated with colds, a sore throat or dyspnoea combined with a cold. In conclusion, exhaled nitric oxide levels were higher in colder weather and in the autumn, perhaps related to the increased prevalence of viral infection at this time of year. The levels were lower in more severe chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Exhaled nitric oxide levels were raised at the onset of exacerbation, particularly in the presence of a cold.

Epidemiological relationships between the common cold and exacerbation frequency in COPD.

Higher exacerbation incidence rates in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are associated with more rapid decline in lung function and poorer quality of life, yet the mechanisms determining susceptibility to exacerbation remain ill-defined. The same viruses responsible for common colds are frequently isolated during exacerbations. The current authors hypothesised that exacerbation frequency may be associated with an increased frequency of colds, and investigated whether increased exacerbation frequency was associated with increased acquisition of colds, or a greater likelihood of exacerbation once a cold has been acquired. A total of 150 patients with COPD completed diary cards recording peak expiratory flow, and respiratory and coryzal symptoms for a median 1,047 days. Annual cold and exacerbation incidence rates (cold and exacerbation frequency) were calculated, and the relationships between these variables were investigated. This analysis is based on 1,005 colds and 1,493 exacerbations. Frequent exacerbators (i.e. those whose exacerbation frequency was greater than the median) experienced significantly more colds than infrequent exacerbators (1.73 versus 0.94.yr(-1)). The likelihood of exacerbation during a cold was unaffected by exacerbation frequency. Patients experiencing frequent colds had a significantly higher exposure to cigarette smoke (46 versus 33 pack-yrs). Exacerbation frequency in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is associated with an increased frequency of acquiring the common cold, rather than an increased propensity to exacerbation once a cold has been acquired.

Patterns of home mechanical ventilation use in Europe: results from the Eurovent survey.

The study was designed to assess the patterns of use of home mechanical ventilation (HMV) for patients with chronic respiratory failure across Europe. A detailed questionnaire of centre details, HMV user characteristics and equipment choices was sent to carefully identified HMV centres in 16 European countries. A total of 483 centres treating 27,118 HMV users were identified. Of these, 329 centres completed surveys between July 2001 and June 2002, representing up to 21,526 HMV users and a response rate of between 62% and 79%. The estimated prevalence of HMV in Europe was 6.6 per 100,000 people. The variation in prevalence between countries was only partially related to the median year of starting HMV services. In addition, there were marked differences between countries in the relative proportions of lung and neuromuscular patients using HMV, and the use of tracheostomies in lung and neuromuscular HMV users. Lung users were linked to a HMV duration of <1 yr, thoracic cage users with 6-10 yrs of ventilation and neuromuscular users with a duration of > or =6 yrs. In conclusion, wide variations exist in the patterns of home mechanical ventilation provision throughout Europe. Further work is needed to monitor its use and ensure equality of provision and access.

Changes in mortalities and hospital admissions associated with holidays and respiratory illness: implications for medical services.

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: To see whether net mortalities increase during and after reductions in medical services, either at average weekends, or at Christmas when pressure from illness is unusually high. METHODS: (1) Paired t-tests to compare mean daily deaths and hospital admissions during and after weekends (Saturday-Tuesday) with means for the week, in south-east England; (2) Linear regressions to see whether trends of daily deaths change when admissions are reduced at Christmas. RESULTS: Neither mean daily all-cause, respiratory or ischaemic heart deaths exceeded weekly averages during weekends, or during Saturday-Monday or Saturday-Tuesday, despite falls in daily elective and daily emergency hospital admissions at weekends that averaged 61-72% and 14-22%, respectively. During 19-24 December, daily deaths were above annual means, respiratory deaths by 49% (29, 1-58), but elective admissions fell and although emergency admissions tended to rise, total admissions rose only for respiratory disease, and only by 33% (376, -47 to 799). On Christmas Day (25 December), even emergency admissions fell sharply below previous trends, respiratory emergency admissions by 18% (P<0.01). Respiratory deaths alone then immediately increased (P<0.01) above trend, by 5.9% (5.8 deaths/day) on 26 December and by 12.9% (12.9) on 27 December. CONCLUSIONS: No adverse effect on mortality was apparent within 2 days from reduction in medical services at weekends. However, respiratory deaths accelerated sharply after reduction in elective and emergency admissions at Christmas, when rates of infection and mortality from respiratory disease were high. Implications for medical services during respiratory epidemics are discussed.

The impact of global warming on health and mortality.

Initial concern about the possible effects of global warming on infections has declined with the realization that the spread of tropical diseases is likely to be limited and controllable. However, the direct effects of heat already cause substantial numbers of deaths among vulnerable people in the summer. Action to prevent these deaths from rising is the most obvious medical challenge presented by a global rise in temperature. Strategies to prevent such deaths are in place to some extent, and they differ between the United States and Europe. Air conditioning has reduced them in the United States, and older technologies such as fans, shade, and buildings designed to keep cool on hot days have generally done so in Europe. Since the energy requirements of air conditioning accelerate global warming, a combination of the older methods, backed up by use of air conditioning when necessary, can provide the ideal solution. Despite the availability of these technologies, occasional record high temperatures still cause sharp rises in heat-related deaths as the climate warms. The most important single piece of advice at the time a heat wave strikes is that people having dangerous heat stress need immediate cooling, eg, by a cool bath. Such action at home can be more effective than transporting the patient to hospital. Meanwhile, it must not be forgotten that cold weather in winter causes-many more deaths than heat in summer, even in most subtropical regions, and measures to control cold-related deaths need to continue.

Longitudinal changes in the nature, severity and frequency of COPD exacerbations.

Exacerbations are an important feature and outcome measure in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but little is known about changes in their severity, recovery, symptom composition or frequency over time. In this study 132 patients (91 male; median age 68.4 yrs and median forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) 38.4% predicted) recorded daily symptoms and morning peak expiratory flow. Patients were monitored for a median of 918 days and 1,111 exacerbations were identified. Patients with severe COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) category III, n=38) had an annual exacerbation frequency of 3.43 x yr(-1), 0.75 x yr(-1) higher than those with moderate COPD (GOLD II, n=94). Exacerbation frequency did not change significantly during the study. At exacerbation onset, symptom count increased to 2.23, relative to a baseline of 0.36 set 8-14 days previously, and this increase rose by 0.05 x yr(-1). Recovery to baseline levels in symptoms and FEV1 took longer (0.32 and 0.55 days x yr(-1)). Sputum purulence at exacerbation became more prevalent over time by 4.1% x yr(-1) from an initial value of 17%. The results of this study suggest that over time, individual patients have more symptoms during exacerbations, with an increased chance of sputum purulence and longer recovery times.

Longitudinal changes in the nature, severity and frequency of COPD exacerbations

Exacerbations are an important feature and outcome measure in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but little is known about changes in their severity, recovery, symptom composition or frequency over time. In this study 132 patients (91 male; median age 68.4 yrs and median forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) 38.4% predicted) recorded daily symptoms and morning peak expiratory flow. Patients were monitored for a median of 918 days and 1,111 exacerbations were identified. Patients with severe COPD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) category III, n=38) had an annual exacerbation frequency of 3.43·yr–1, 0.75·yr–1 higher than those with moderate COPD (GOLD II, n=94). Exacerbation frequency did not change significantly during the study. At exacerbation onset, symptom count increased to 2.23, relative to a baseline of 0.36 set 8–14 days previously, and this increase rose by 0.05·yr–1. Recovery to baseline levels in symptoms and FEV1 took longer (0.32 and 0.55 days·yr–1). Sputum purulence at exacerbation became more prevalent over time by 4.1%·yr–1 from an initial value of 17%. The results of this study suggest that over time, individual patients have more symptoms during exacerbations, with an increased chance of sputum purulence and longer recovery times.

Cardiovascular responses to heat stress and their adverse consequences in healthy and vulnerable human populations.

This paper reviews the basic thermoregulatory physiology of healthy people in relation to hazards from external heat stress and internal heat loads generated by physical exercise or radiofrequency (RF) radiation. In addition, members of the population are identified who may be particularly vulnerable to the effects of heat stress. These data are examined in relation to current international guidance on occupational and public exposure to RF radiation. When body temperature rises, heat balance of the body is normally restored by increased blood flow to the skin and by sweating. These responses increase the work of the heart and cause loss of salt and water from the body. They impair working efficiency and can overload the heart and cause haemoconcentration, which can lead to coronary and cerebral thrombosis, particularly in elderly people with atheromatous arteries. These adverse effects of thermoregulatory adjustments occur with even mild heat loads and account for the great majority of heat-related illness and death. They are, therefore, particularly relevant to determination of safe population exposures to additional sources of heat stress. It is concluded that exposure to RF levels currently recommended as safe for the general population, equivalent to heat loads of about one tenth basal metabolic rate, could continue to be regarded as trivial in this context, but that prolonged exposures of the general population to RF levels higher than that could not be regarded as safe in all circumstances.