Predicting daily COVID-19 case rates from SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations across a diversity of wastewater catchments

We assessed the relationship between municipality COVID-19 case rates and SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in the primary sludge of corresponding wastewater treatment facilities. Over 1,000 daily primary sludge samples were collected from six wastewater treatment facilities with catchments serving 18 cities and towns in the State of Connecticut, USA. Samples were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations during a six-month time period that overlapped with fall 2020 and winter 2021 COVID-19 outbreaks in each municipality. We fit a single regression model to estimate reported case rates in the six municipalities from SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations collected daily from corresponding wastewater treatment facilities. Results demonstrate the ability of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in primary sludge to estimate COVID-19 reported case rates across treatment facilities and wastewater catchments, with coverage probabilities ranging from 0.94 to 0.96. Leave-one-out cross validation suggests that the model can be broadly applied to wastewater catchments that range in more than one order of magnitude in population served. Estimation of case rates from wastewater data can be useful in locations with limited testing availability or testing disparities, or delays in individual COVID-19 testing programs.

Pooling saliva to increase SARS-CoV-2 testing capacity

Expanding testing capabilities is integral to managing the further spread of SARS-CoV-2 and developing reopening strategies, particularly in regards to identifying and isolating asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals. Central to meeting testing demands are specimens that can be easily and reliably collected and laboratory capacity to rapidly ramp up to scale. We and others have demonstrated that high and consistent levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be detected in saliva from COVID-19 inpatients, outpatients, and asymptomatic individuals. As saliva collection is non-invasive, extending this strategy to test pooled saliva samples from multiple individuals could thus provide a simple method to expand testing capacity. However, hesitation towards pooled sample testing arises due to the dilution of positive samples, potentially shifting weakly positive samples below the detection limit for SARS-CoV-2 and thereby decreasing the sensitivity. Here, we investigated the potential of pooling saliva samples by 5, 10, and 20 samples prior to RNA extraction and RT-qPCR detection of SARS-CoV-2. Based on samples tested, we conservatively estimated a reduction of 7.41%, 11.11%, and 14.81% sensitivity, for each of the pool sizes, respectively. Using these estimates we modeled anticipated changes in RT-qPCR cycle threshold to show the practical impact of pooling on results of SARS-CoV-2 testing. In tested populations with greater than 3% prevalence, testing samples in pools of 5 requires the least overall number of tests. Below 1% however, pools of 10 or 20 are more beneficial and likely more supportive of ongoing surveillance strategies.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA by multiplex RT-qPCR

The current RT-qPCR assay recommended for SARS-CoV-2 testing in the United States requires analysis of three genomic targets per sample: two viral and one host. To simplify testing and reduce the volume of required reagents, we developed a multiplex RT-qPCR assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 in a single reaction. We used existing N1, N2, and RP primer and probe sets by the CDC, but substituted fluorophores to allow multiplexing of the assay. The cycle threshold (Ct) values of our multiplex RT-qPCR were comparable to those obtained by the singleplex assay adapted for research purposes. Low copies (>500 copies / reaction) of SARS-CoV-2 RNA were consistently detected by the multiplex RT-qPCR. Our novel multiplex RT-qPCR improves upon current singleplex diagnostics by saving reagents, costs, time and labor.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in primary municipal sewage sludge as a leading indicator of COVID-19 outbreak dynamics

We report a time course of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in primary sewage sludge during the Spring COVID-19 outbreak in a northeastern U.S. metropolitan area. SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in all environmental samples, and when adjusted for the time lag, the virus RNA concentrations tracked the COVID-19 epidemiological curve. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations were a leading indicator of community infection ahead of compiled COVID-19 testing data and local hospital admissions. Decisions to implement or relax public health measures and restrictions require timely information on outbreak dynamics in a community.