Sin Nombre virus prevalence from 2014-2017 in wild deer mice, Peromyscus maniculatus, on five of the California Channel Islands.

Sin Nombre virus (SNV) is a zoonotic virus that is highly pathogenic to humans. The deer mouse, Peromyscus maniculatus, is the primary host of SNV, and SNV prevalence in P. maniculatus is an important indicator of human disease risk. Because the California Channel Islands contain permanent human settlements, receive hundreds of thousands of visitors each year, and can have extremely high densities of P. maniculatus, surveillance for SNV in island P. maniculatus is important for understanding the human risk of zoonotic disease. Despite the importance of surveillance on these heavily utilized islands, SNV prevalence (i.e. the proportion of P. maniculatus that test positive to antibodies to SNV) has not been examined in the last 13-27 years. We present data on 1,610 mice sampled for four consecutive years (2014-2017) on five of the California Channel Islands: East Anacapa, Santa Barbara, Santa Catalina, San Nicolas, and San Clemente. Despite historical data indicating SNV-positive mice on San Clemente and Santa Catalina, we detected no SNV-positive mice on these islands, suggesting very low prevalence or possible loss of SNV. Islands historically free of SNV (East Anacapa, Santa Barbara, and San Nicolas) remained free of SNV, suggesting that rates of pathogen introduction from other islands and/or the mainland are low. Although continued surveillance is warranted to determine whether SNV establishes on these islands, our work helps inform current human disease risk in these locations and suggests that SNV prevalence on these islands is currently very low.

Biogeographic and ecological regulation of disease: prevalence of Sin Nombre virus in island mice is related to island area, precipitation, and predator richness.

The relative roles of top-down and bottom-up forces in affecting disease prevalence in wild hosts is important for understanding disease dynamics and human disease risk. We found that the prevalence of Sin Nombre virus (SNV), the agent of a severe disease in humans (hantavirus pulmonary syndrome), in island deer mice from the eight California Channel Islands was greater with increased precipitation (a measure of productivity), greater island area, and fewer species of rodent predators. In finding a strong signal of the ecological forces affecting SNV prevalence, our work highlights the need for future work to understand the relative importance of average rodent density, population fluctuations, behavior, and specialist predators as they affect SNV prevalence. In addition to illustrating the importance of both bottom-up and top-down limitation of disease prevalence, our results suggest that predator richness may have important bearing on the risk of exposure to animal-borne diseases that affect humans.

Extirpation of alternative prey during a small rodent crash.

We document two episodes, in different years, of Barn Owls (Tyto alba) preying on a winter population of Burrowing Owls (Athene cunicularia) on a southern California island. The predation in each case followed a marked shift in the diet of the Barn Owls, due to the cyclic decline of their normal small mammal prey. Heavy predation in the first year resulted in the extirpation of the Burrowing Owls on the island. Such heavy predation on alternative prey species is commonly reported in cyclic predator-prey systems, however this is the first documented case of extirpation of the alternative prey. Complete elimination of any prey species by terrestrial predators is, in fact, very rare.