Stability in change: building a stable ecological security pattern in Northeast China under climate and land use changes.

Climate change and land use change caused by human activities have a profound impact on ecological security. Simulating the spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service value and ecological security patterns under different carbon emission scenarios in the future is of great significance for formulating sustainable development policies. This study quantified the four major ecosystem services (habitat quality, water retention, soil erosion, and carbon storage) in Northeast China (NC), identified ecological source areas, and constructed a stable ecological security pattern. The results show that the spatial patterns of soil erosion, carbon storage, water retention, and habitat quality, the four major ecosystem services in NC, are relatively stable in the next 30 years, and there is no significant difference from the current spatial pattern distribution. The SSP1-2.6 carbon emission scenario is a priority model for the development of NC in the next 30 years. In this carbon emission scenario, the NC has the largest ecological resources (191,177 km2) and the least comprehensive resistance value (850.006 × 10-4). At the same time, the relative resistance of the corridor in this scenario is the smallest, and the area of the mandatory reserve pinch points is the least. The ecological corridors in the SSP1-2.6 scenario form a network distribution among the ecological sources, connecting several large ecological sources as a whole. This study fills the knowledge gap in building a stable ecological security pattern in NC under the background of global change, and provides a scientific basis for the decision-making of regional ecological security and land resource management.

Distribution and protection of Thesium chinense Turcz. under climate and land use change.

Wild medicinal plants are prominent in the field of Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), but their availability is being impacted by human activities and ecological degradation in China. To ensure sustainable use of these resources, it is crucial to scientifically plan areas for wild plant cultivation. Thesium chinense, a known plant antibiotic, has been overharvested in recent years, resulting in a sharp reduction in its wild resources. In this study, we employed three atmospheric circulation models and four socio-economic approaches (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to investigate the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of T. chinense. We also examined changes in its suitable area using the Biomod2 package. Additionally, we utilized the PLUS model to project and analyze future land use changes in climate-stable regions for T. chinense. Our planning for wild tending areas of T. chinense was facilitated by the ZONATION software. Over the next century, the climate-stable regions for T. chinense in China is approximately 383.05 × 104 km2, while the natural habitat in this region will progressively decline. Under the current climate conditions, about 65.06% of the habitats in the high suitable areas of T. chinense are not affected by future land use changes in China. Through hotspot analysis, we identified 17 hotspot cities as ideal areas for the wild tending of T. chinense, including 6 core hotspot cities, 6 sub-hotspot cities, and 5 fringe hotspot cities. These findings contribute to a comprehensive research framework for the cultivation planning of T. chinense and other medicinal plants.