Gastrointestinal Events in High-Dose vs Standard-Dose Influenza Vaccine Recipients.

Passive surveillance data had signaled the possibility of gastrointestinal adverse events occurring after the administration of high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV-HD). However, in a large, prospective randomized clinical trial, rates of serious gastrointestinal events were no greater among IIV-HD recipients than among those who received a standard-dose influenza vaccine.

Effect of Previous-Year Vaccination on the Efficacy, Immunogenicity, and Safety of High-Dose Inactivated Influenza Vaccine in Older Adults.

BACKGROUND: High-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV-HD) is an alternative to the standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV-SD) in the United States for influenza prevention in older adults. IIV-HD improved efficacy relative to IIV-SD in a randomized controlled trial. Recent observational studies suggest that previous influenza vaccination may influence the immunogenicity and effectiveness of current-season vaccination. METHODS: The original study was a double-blind, randomized trial comparing IIV-HD to IIV-SD in adults aged ≥65 years over 2 influenza seasons. A subset of year 1 (Y1) participants reenrolled in year 2 (Y2), receiving vaccine by random assignment in both years. We evaluated the effect of Y1 vaccination on Y2 relative vaccine efficacy (VE), immunogenicity (hemagglutination inhibition [HAI] titers), and safety among reenrolled participants. RESULTS: Of 14 500 Y1 participants, 7643 reenrolled in Y2. Relative to participants who received IIV-SD both seasons, VE was higher for IIV-HD vaccinees in Y2 (28.3% overall; 25.1% for Y1 IIV-HD, Y2 IIV-HD; and 31.6% for Y1 IIV-SD, Y2 IIV-HD). In multivariate logistic regression models, Y1 vaccine was not a significant modifier of Y2 VE (P= .43), whereas Y2 IIV-HD remained significantly associated with lower influenza risk (P= .043). Compared to administration of IIV-SD in both years, postvaccination HAI titers were significantly higher for patterns that included IIV-HD in Y2. No safety concerns were raised with IIV-HD revaccination. CONCLUSIONS: IIV-HD is likely to provide clinical benefit over IIV-SD irrespective of previous-season vaccination with IIV-HD or IIV-SD. IIV-HD consistently improved immune responses, and no safety concerns emerged in the context of IIV-HD revaccination.

Correlates of Protection against Influenza in the Elderly: Results from an Influenza Vaccine Efficacy Trial.

Although a number of studies have investigated and quantified immune correlates of protection against influenza in adults and children, data on immune protection in the elderly are sparse. A recent vaccine efficacy trial comparing standard-dose with high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine in persons 65 years of age and older provided the opportunity to examine the relationship between values of three immunologic assays and protection against community-acquired A/H3N2 influenza illness. The high-dose vaccine induced significantly higher antibody titers than the standard-dose vaccine for all assays. For the hemagglutination inhibition assay, a titer of 40 was found to correspond with 50% protection when the assay virus was antigenically well matched to the circulating virus--the same titer as is generally recognized for 50% protection in younger adults. A dramatically higher titer was required for 50% protection when the assay virus was a poor match to the circulating virus. With the well-matched virus, some protection was seen at the lowest titers; with the poorly matched virus, high levels of protection were not achieved even at the highest titers. Strong associations were also seen between virus neutralization test titers and protection, but reliable estimates for 50% protection were not obtained. An association was seen between titers of an enzyme-linked lectin assay for antineuraminidase N2 antibodies and protection; in particular, the proportion of treatment effect explained by assay titer in models that included both this assay and one of the other assays was consistently higher than in models that included either assay alone. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under registration no. NCT01427309.).

Some extensions in continuous models for immunological correlates of protection.

BACKGROUND: A scaled logit model has previously been proposed to quantify the relationship between an immunological assay and protection from disease, and has been applied in a number of settings. The probability of disease was modelled as a function of the probability of exposure, which was assumed to be fixed, and of protection, which was assumed to increase smoothly with the value of the assay. METHODS: Some extensions are here investigated. Alternative functions to represent the protection curve are explored, applications to case-cohort designs are evaluated, and approaches to variance estimation compared. The steepness of the protection curve must sometimes be bounded to achieve convergence and methods for doing so are outlined. Criteria for evaluating the fit of models are proposed and approaches to assessing the utility of results suggested. Models are evaluated by application to sixteen datasets from vaccine clinical trials. RESULTS: Alternative protection curve functions improved model evaluation criteria for every dataset. Standard errors based on the observed information were found to be unreliable; bootstrap estimates of precision were to be preferred. In most instances, case-cohort designs resulted in little loss of precision. Some results achieved suggested measures for utility. CONCLUSIONS: The original scaled logit model can be improved upon. Evaluation criteria permit well-fitting models and useful results to be identified. The proposed methods provide a comprehensive set of tools for quantifying the relationship between immunological assays and protection from disease.

Prevention of serious events in adults 65 years of age or older: A comparison between high-dose and standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccines.

BACKGROUND: A recent study showed that a high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV-HD) was 24.2% more efficacious than a standard-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV-SD) in preventing laboratory-confirmed symptomatic influenza in adults ≥65 years. Here we evaluate the effectiveness of IIV-HD compared to IIV-SD in preventing serious illnesses considered potential sequelae or complications of influenza infection. METHODS: The original study was a double-blind, randomized, active-controlled, multicenter trial. Participants were adults ≥65 years randomized to receive IIV-HD or IIV-SD, and followed for 6-8 months post-vaccination for the occurrence of influenza and serious adverse events (SAEs). SAEs were events: leading to death or hospitalization (or its prolongation); considered life-threatening or medically important; or resulting in disability. For the present analysis, reported SAEs were classified as possibly related to influenza by three blinded physicians and rates per 1000 participant-seasons were calculated. Relative vaccine effectiveness (rVE) was estimated as (1-Rate Ratio)×100. RESULTS: 31,989 participants were enrolled, with 15,991 and 15,998 randomized to receive IIV-HD and IIV-SD, respectively. IIV-HD was significantly more effective than IIV-SD in preventing SAEs possibly related to influenza overall (rVE, 17.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.6-27.4%) and serious pneumonia (rVE, 39.8%; 95% CI, 19.3-55.1%). Borderline significance was observed for the efficacy of IIV-HD relative to IIV-SD for the prevention of all-cause hospitalizations (rVE, 6.9%; 95% CI, 0.5-12.8%). CONCLUSIONS: Compared to IIV-SD, IIV-HD reduced the risk of SAEs possibly related to influenza. The observed relative effectiveness against serious pneumonia is particularly noteworthy considering the burden of influenza and pneumonia in older adults.

Efficacy and immunogenicity of high-dose influenza vaccine in older adults by age, comorbidities, and frailty.

BACKGROUND: A randomized trial demonstrated that a high-dose inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV-HD) was 24.2% more efficacious than a standard-dose vaccine (IIV-SD) against laboratory-confirmed influenza illness in adults ≥65 years. To evaluate the consistency of IIV-HD benefits, supplemental analyses explored efficacy and immunogenicity by baseline characteristics of special interest. METHODS: Double-blind, randomized, active-controlled, multicenter trial. Adults ≥65 years were randomized 1:1 to receive IIV-HD or IIV-SD and followed for 6-8 months postvaccination for the occurrence of influenza. One third of participants were randomly selected to provide sera for measurement of hemagglutination inhibition antibody (HAI) titers. Efficacy (IIV-HD vs. IIV-SD) against laboratory-confirmed, protocol-defined influenza-like illness (PD-ILI) and HAI geometric mean titer (GMT) ratios (IIV-HD/IIV-SD) were evaluated by age, and number of high-risk comorbid and frailty conditions. RESULTS: Efficacy (95% confidence intervals) of IIV-HD relative to IIV-SD against laboratory-confirmed PD-ILI was 19.7% (0.4%; 35.4%) for participants 65-74 years, 32.4% (8.1%; 50.6%) for those ≥75 years, 22.1% (3.9%; 37.0%) for participants with ≥1 high-risk comorbidity, 23.6% (-3.2%; 43.6%) for those with ≥2 high-risk comorbidities, 27.5% (0.4%; 47.4%) for persons with 1 frailty condition, 23.9% (-9.0%; 47.2%) for those with 2 frailty conditions, and 16.0% (-16.3%; 39.4%) for those with ≥3 frailty conditions. There was no evidence of vaccine efficacy heterogeneity within age, comorbidity, and frailty strata (P-values 0.351, 0.875, and 0.838, respectively). HAI GMT ratios were significantly higher among IIV-HD recipients for all strains and across all subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Estimates of relative efficacy consistently favored IIV-HD over IIV-SD. There was no significant evidence that baseline age, comorbidity, or frailty modified the efficacy of IIV-HD relative to IIV-SD. IIV-HD significantly improved HAI responses for all strains and in all subgroups. IIV-HD is likely to provide benefits beyond IIV-SD for adults ≥65 years, irrespective of age and presence of comorbid or frailty conditions.

Control of type 1 error in a hybrid complete two-period vaccine efficacy trial.

A complete two-period experimental design has been defined as one in which subjects are randomized to treatment, observed for the occurrence of an event of interest, re-randomized, and observed again for the event in a second period. A 4-year vaccine efficacy trial was planned to compare a high-dose vaccine with a standard dose vaccine. Subjects would be randomized each year, and subjects who had participated in a previous year would be allowed to re-enroll in a subsequent year and would be re-randomized. A question of interest is whether positive correlation between observations on subjects who re-enrolled would inflate the variance of test statistics. The effect of re-enrollment and correlation on type 1 error in a 4-year trial is investigated by simulation. As conducted, the trial met its power requirements after two years. Subjects therefore included some who participated for a single year and others who participated in both years. Those who participated in both years constituted a complete two-period design. An algebraic expression for the variance of the treatment difference in a complete two-period design is derived. It is shown that under a 'no difference' null, correlation does not result in variance inflation in this design. When there is a treatment difference, there is variance inflation but it is small. In the vaccine efficacy trial, the effect of correlation on the statistical inference was negligible.

Efficacy of high-dose versus standard-dose influenza vaccine in older adults.

BACKGROUND: As compared with a standard-dose vaccine, a high-dose, trivalent, inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3-HD) improves antibody responses to influenza among adults 65 years of age or older. This study evaluated whether IIV3-HD also improves protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza illness. METHODS: We conducted a phase IIIb-IV, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, active-controlled trial to compare IIV3-HD (60 µg of hemagglutinin per strain) with standard-dose trivalent, inactivated influenza vaccine (IIV3-SD [15 µg of hemagglutinin per strain]) in adults 65 years of age or older. Assessments of relative efficacy, effectiveness, safety (serious adverse events), and immunogenicity (hemagglutination-inhibition [HAI] titers) were performed during the 2011-2012 (year 1) and the 2012-2013 (year 2) northern-hemisphere influenza seasons. RESULTS: A total of 31,989 participants were enrolled from 126 research centers in the United States and Canada (15,991 were randomly assigned to receive IIV3-HD, and 15,998 to receive IIV3-SD). In the intention-to-treat analysis, 228 participants in the IIV3-HD group (1.4%) and 301 participants in the IIV3-SD group (1.9%) had laboratory-confirmed influenza caused by any viral type or subtype associated with a protocol-defined influenza-like illness (relative efficacy, 24.2%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 9.7 to 36.5). At least one serious adverse event during the safety surveillance period was reported by 1323 (8.3%) of the participants in the IIV3-HD group, as compared with 1442 (9.0%) of the participants in the IIV3-SD group (relative risk, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85 to 0.99). After vaccination, HAI titers and seroprotection rates (the percentage of participants with HAI titers ≥ 1:40) were significantly higher in the IIV3-HD group. Conclusions: Among persons 65 years of age or older, IIV3-HD induced significantly higher antibody responses and provided better protection against laboratory-confirmed influenza illness than did IIV3-SD. (Funded by Sanofi Pasteur; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01427309.).

A threshold method for immunological correlates of protection.

BACKGROUND: Immunological correlates of protection are biological markers such as disease-specific antibodies which correlate with protection against disease and which are measurable with immunological assays. It is common in vaccine research and in setting immunization policy to rely on threshold values for the correlate where the accepted threshold differentiates between individuals who are considered to be protected against disease and those who are susceptible. Examples where thresholds are used include development of a new generation 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine which was required in clinical trials to meet accepted thresholds for the older 7-valent vaccine, and public health decision making on vaccination policy based on long-term maintenance of protective thresholds for Hepatitis A, rubella, measles, Japanese encephalitis and others. Despite widespread use of such thresholds in vaccine policy and research, few statistical approaches have been formally developed which specifically incorporate a threshold parameter in order to estimate the value of the protective threshold from data. METHODS: We propose a 3-parameter statistical model called the a:b model which incorporates parameters for a threshold and constant but different infection probabilities below and above the threshold estimated using profile likelihood or least squares methods. Evaluation of the estimated threshold can be performed by a significance test for the existence of a threshold using a modified likelihood ratio test which follows a chi-squared distribution with 3 degrees of freedom, and confidence intervals for the threshold can be obtained by bootstrapping. The model also permits assessment of relative risk of infection in patients achieving the threshold or not. Goodness-of-fit of the a:b model may be assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow approach. The model is applied to 15 datasets from published clinical trials on pertussis, respiratory syncytial virus and varicella. RESULTS: Highly significant thresholds with p-values less than 0.01 were found for 13 of the 15 datasets. Considerable variability was seen in the widths of confidence intervals. Relative risks indicated around 70% or better protection in 11 datasets and relevance of the estimated threshold to imply strong protection. Goodness-of-fit was generally acceptable. CONCLUSIONS: The a:b model offers a formal statistical method of estimation of thresholds differentiating susceptible from protected individuals which has previously depended on putative statements based on visual inspection of data.

High-dose trivalent influenza vaccine compared to standard dose vaccine in elderly adults: safety, immunogenicity and relative efficacy during the 2009-2010 season.

BACKGROUND: High-dose trivalent influenza vaccine was developed to improve antibody responses to influenza vaccine in the elderly and hence potentially impact favorably on influenza-associated morbidity and mortality in this population. METHODS: A phase IIIb, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, controlled trial was conducted to compare High-Dose (HD) trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (60µg of hemagglutinin [HA] per strain) to standard dose (SD) vaccine (15µg of HA per strain) in adults ≥65 years of age. Assessments of safety (serious adverse events [SAE]), immunogenicity (hemagglutination inhibition [HAI] titers) and relative efficacy were performed during the 2009-2010 influenza season, which coincided with the H1N1 pandemic. RESULTS: A total of 9172 participants were enrolled in 99 research centers in the US (6117 and 3055 randomized to the HD and SD groups, respectively). Within 180 days after vaccination, 6.7% and 6.5% of participants in the HD and SD vaccine groups, respectively, experienced at least one SAE, of which 0.4% and 0.3% had a fatal outcome. A total of 0.5% of participants in both groups discontinued the study due to a SAE. Post-vaccination HAI titers and rate of post-vaccination HAI titer ≥1:40 were significantly higher in the HD group. No cases of influenza caused by viral types/subtypes similar to those in the vaccines were observed. All cases genetically or antigenically characterized were classified as similar to influenza A/California/7/2009 (H1N1), the pandemic strain. The vaccine efficacy of HD vaccine relative to SD vaccine against any influenza viral type/subtype was 12.6% (95% CI -140.5; 65.8) in the intent-to-treat analysis. CONCLUSION: High-dose trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine is safe and well tolerated and provides superior immune responses compared to standard dose vaccine. Demonstration of a superior vaccine efficacy requires a separate large randomized, controlled trial.

Efficacy and safety of a live attenuated influenza vaccine in adults 60 years of age and older.

This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study investigated the efficacy, safety, and immunogenicity of LAIV in community-dwelling ambulatory adults > or =60 years of age in South Africa in 2001. Nose and throat swabs were obtained for influenza virus culture based on the symptoms of influenza-like illness. A total of 3242 subjects were enrolled, with a mean age of 69.5 years. The efficacy of LAIV against influenza viruses antigenically similar to the vaccine was 42.3% (95% CI, 21.6-57.8%). Efficacy against A/H3N2 viruses was 52.5% (95% CI, 32.1-67.2%); vaccine efficacy was not observed against antigenically similar B strains. In post hoc analyses, efficacy in subjects 60 to <70 years of age was 41.8% and -22.7% against A/H3N2 and B, respectively and 65.7% and 9.9%, respectively, for subjects > or =70 years. Reactogenicity events were higher among LAIV than placebo recipients during 11 days postvaccination (P=0.042), including runny nose/nasal congestion, cough, sore throat, headache, muscle aches, tiredness, and decreased appetite. Rates of serious adverse events were similar for LAIV and placebo recipients. This was the first demonstration of statistically significant protection by LAIV against culture-confirmed influenza in adults > or =60 years of age. These results suggest that LAIV may provide an additional public health tool in the prevention of influenza in the elderly. (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT00217230.).

Correlation of cellular immune responses with protection against culture-confirmed influenza virus in young children.

The highly sensitive gamma interferon (IFN-gamma) enzyme-linked immunosorbent spot (ELISPOT) assay permits the investigation of the role of cell-mediated immunity (CMI) in the protection of young children against influenza. Preliminary studies of young children confirmed that the IFN-gamma ELISPOT assay was a more sensitive measure of influenza memory immune responses than serum antibody and that among seronegative children aged 6 to <36 months, an intranasal dose of 10(7) fluorescent focus units (FFU) of a live attenuated influenza virus vaccine (CAIV-T) elicited substantial CMI responses. A commercial inactivated influenza virus vaccine elicited CMI responses only in children with some previous exposure to related influenza viruses as determined by detectable antibody levels prevaccination. The role of CMI in actual protection against community-acquired, culture-confirmed clinical influenza by CAIV-T was investigated in a large randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled dose-ranging efficacy trial with 2,172 children aged 6 to <36 months in the Philippines and Thailand. The estimated protection curve indicated that the majority of infants and young children with >or=100 spot-forming cells/10(6) peripheral blood mononuclear cells were protected against clinical influenza, establishing a possible target level of CMI for future influenza vaccine development. The ELISPOT assay for IFN-gamma is a sensitive and reproducible measure of CMI and memory immune responses and contributes to establishing requirements for the future development of vaccines against influenza, especially those used for children.

A model for immunological correlates of protection.

Immunological assays measure characteristics of the immune system, such as antibody levels, specific to certain diseases. High assay values are often associated with protection from disease. A question of interest is how the relationship between assay values and subsequent development of disease should be quantitatively modelled. Existing approaches successfully model the relationship for high assay values, where the probability of developing disease is low. However at low assay values, the probability of developing disease is more closely associated with factors such as disease prevalence rates and an individual's chance of exposure to infection; these are less well captured by existing models. This paper presents a model that accommodates both assay values and factors independent of assay values, enabling protection from disease to be modelled over the whole range of assay values and proposing a method for predicting the efficacy of a vaccine from the assays of vaccinees and non-vaccinees.