Estimating shadow prices in economies with multiple market failures.

Approaches to the estimation of shadow prices generally assume that all but one market function correctly. However, multiple market failures are common in developing countries. We present a theoretical model and an empirical strategy to estimate the shadow price of a subsistence good in an economy where labor markets fail. Our results show that: 1) among subsistence producers, the shadow price of this good must be greater than or equal to the market price, and equal to it for surplus growers; and 2) current methods create biases when the otherwise-perfect-markets assumption is violated. The propositions are tested using a representative survey for rural Mexico. We find that the shadow wage is below that of the market (MXN $93.2/day vs. MXN $132.3/day), and that the shadow price for subsistence corn is over ten times greater than its market price (MXN $32.37/kg vs. MXN $3.19/kg). Unbiased shadow price estimates for subsistence goods help to overcome the limitations of current income poverty measures: their overestimation of the purchasing power of subsistence households and their underestimation of the value of subsistence goods. In rural Mexico, current practice underestimates the population in food poverty by 2%; an additional 9% has income above the poverty line yet fail to meet the utilization dimension of food security.

Genetic erosion in maize's center of origin.

Crop genetic diversity is an indispensable resource for farmers and professional breeders responding to changing climate, pests, and diseases. Anecdotal appraisals in centers of crop origin have suggested serious threats to this diversity for over half a century. However, a nationwide inventory recently found all maize races previously described for Mexico, including some formerly considered nearly extinct. A flurry of social studies seems to confirm that farmers maintain considerable diversity. Here, we compare estimates of maize diversity from case studies over the past 15 y with nationally and regionally representative matched longitudinal data from farmers across rural Mexico. Our findings reveal an increasing bias in inferences based on case study results and widespread loss of diversity. Cross-sectional, case study data suggest that farm-level richness has increased by 0.04 y(-1) nationwide; however, direct estimates using matched longitudinal data reveal that richness dropped -0.04 y(-1) between 2002 and 2007, from 1.43 to 1.22 varieties per farm. Varietal losses occurred across regions and altitudinal zones, and regardless of farm turnover within the sector. Extinction of local maize populations may not have resulted in an immediate loss of alleles, but low varietal richness and changes in maize's metapopulation dynamics may prevent farmers from accessing germplasm suitable to a rapidly changing climate. Declining yields could then lead farmers to leave the sector and result in a further loss of diversity. Similarities in research approaches across crops suggest that methodological biases could conceal a loss of diversity at other centers of crop origin.

Inexplicable or simply unexplained? The management of maize seed in Mexico.

Farmer management of plant germplasm pre-dates crop domestication, but humans' role in crop evolution and diversity remains largely undocumented and often contested. Seemingly inexplicable practices observed throughout agricultural history, such as exchanging or replacing seed, continue to structure crop populations across the developing world. Seed management practices can be construed as events in the life history of crops and management data used to model crop demography, but this requires suitable quantitative data. As a prerequisite to addressing the causes and implications of maize seed management, we describe its patterns of variation across Mexico by drawing from the literature and new analysis. We find that rates of seed replacement, introduction and diffusion differ significantly across regions and altitudinal zones, but interactions among explanatory factors can obscure patterns of variation. The type, source, geographic origin and ownership of seed help explain observed rates. Yet, controlling for the characteristics of germplasm barely reduces interregional differences vastly exceeding variation across elevations. With few exceptions, monotonic altitudinal trends are absent. Causal relationships between management practices and the physical environment could determine farmers' wellbeing and crop conservation in the face of climate change. Scarce and inconsistent data on management nevertheless could prevent an understanding of these relationships. Current conceptions on the management and dynamics of maize diversity are founded on a patchwork of observations in surprisingly few and dissimilar environments. Our estimates of management practices should shed light on differences in maize population dynamics across Mexico. Consistency with previous studies spanning over a decade suggests that common sets of forces are present within large areas, but causal associations remain unknown. The next step in explaining crop diversity should address variation in seed management across space and time simultaneously while identifying farmers' values and motivations as underlying forces.

Is there an ideal REDD+ program? An analysis of policy trade-offs at the local level.

We use economy-wide simulation methods to analyze the outcome of a simple REDD+ program in a mixed subsistence/commercial-agriculture economy. Alternative scenarios help trace REDD+'s causal chain, revealing how trade-offs between the program's public and private costs and benefits determine its effectiveness, efficiency and equity (the 3Es). Scenarios reveal a complex relationship between the 3Es not evident in more aggregate analyses. Setting aside land as a carbon sink always influences the productivity of agriculture and its supply of non-market goods and services; but the overall returns to land and labor-which ultimately determine the opportunity cost of enrollment, the price of carbon and the distribution of gains and losses-depend on local conditions. In the study area, market-oriented landowners could enroll 30% of local land into a cost-effective program, but local subsistence demands would raise their opportunity costs as REDD+ unfurls, increasing the marginal cost of carbon. A combination of rent and wage changes would create net costs for most private stakeholders, including program participants. Increasing carbon prices undermines the program's efficiency without solving its inequities; expanding the program reduces inefficiencies but increases private costs with only minor improvements in equity. A program that prevents job losses could be the best option, but its efficiency compared to direct compensation could depend on program scale. Overall, neither the cost nor the 3Es of alternative REDD+ programs can be assessed without accounting for local demand for subsistence goods and services. In the context of Mexico's tropical highlands, a moderate-sized REDD+ program could at best have no net impact on rural households. REDD+ mechanisms should avoid general formulas by giving local authorities the necessary flexibility to address the trade-offs involved. National programs themselves should remain flexible enough to adjust for spatially and temporally changing contexts.

Informal "seed" systems and the management of gene flow in traditional agroecosystems: the case of cassava in Cauca, Colombia.

Our ability to manage gene flow within traditional agroecosystems and their repercussions requires understanding the biology of crops, including farming practices' role in crop ecology. That these practices' effects on crop population genetics have not been quantified bespeaks lack of an appropriate analytical framework. We use a model that construes seed-management practices as part of a crop's demography to describe the dynamics of cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) in Cauca, Colombia. We quantify several management practices for cassava--the first estimates of their kind for a vegetatively-propagated crop--describe their demographic repercussions, and compare them to those of maize, a sexually-reproduced grain crop. We discuss the implications for gene flow, the conservation of cassava diversity, and the biosafety of vegetatively-propagated crops in centers of diversity. Cassava populations are surprisingly open and dynamic: farmers exchange germplasm across localities, particularly improved varieties, and distribute it among neighbors at extremely high rates vis-à-vis maize. This implies that a large portion of cassava populations consists of non-local germplasm, often grown in mixed stands with local varieties. Gene flow from this germplasm into local seed banks and gene pools via pollen has been documented, but its extent remains uncertain. In sum, cassava's biology and vegetative propagation might facilitate pre-release confinement of genetically-modified varieties, as expected, but simultaneously contribute to their diffusion across traditional agroecosystems if released. Genetically-modified cassava is unlikely to displace landraces or compromise their diversity; but rapid diffusion of improved germplasm and subsequent incorporation into cassava landraces, seed banks or wild populations could obstruct the tracking and eradication of deleterious transgenes. Attempts to regulate traditional farming practices to reduce the risks could compromise cassava populations' adaptive potential and ultimately prove ineffectual.

Dispersal of transgenes through maize seed systems in Mexico.

OBJECTIVES: Current models of transgene dispersal focus on gene flow via pollen while neglecting seed, a vital vehicle for gene flow in centers of crop origin and diversity. We analyze the dispersal of maize transgenes via seeds in Mexico, the crop's cradle. METHODS: We use immunoassays (ELISA) to screen for the activity of recombinant proteins in a nationwide sample of farmer seed stocks. We estimate critical parameters of seed population dynamics using household survey data and combine these estimates with analytical results to examine presumed sources and mechanisms of dispersal. RESULTS: Recombinant proteins Cry1Ab/Ac and CP4/EPSPS were found in 3.1% and 1.8% of samples, respectively. They are most abundant in southeast Mexico but also present in the west-central region. Diffusion of seed and grain imported from the United States might explain the frequency and distribution of transgenes in west-central Mexico but not in the southeast. CONCLUSIONS: Understanding the potential for transgene survival and dispersal should help design methods to regulate the diffusion of germplasm into local seed stocks. Further research is needed on the interactions between formal and informal seed systems and grain markets in centers of crop origin and diversification.

A crop population perspective on maize seed systems in Mexico.

Improvement of local germplasm through artificial selection is regarded as the main force behind maize evolution and diversity in Mexico, the crop's center of origin. This perspective neglects the larger social context of maize evolution. Using a theoretical approach and Mexico-wide data, we show that farmer-led evolution of maize is largely driven by a technological diffusion and appropriation process that selectively integrates nonlocal germplasm into local seed stocks. Our approach construes farmer practices as events in the life history of seed to build a demographic model. The model shows how random and systematic differences in management combine to structure maize seed populations into subpopulations that can spread or become extinct, in some cases independently of visible agronomic advantages. The process involves continuous population bottlenecks that can lead to diversity loss. Nonlocal germplasm thus might play a critical role in maintaining diversity in individual localities. Empirical estimates show that introduction of nonlocal seed in Central and Southeastern Mexico is rarer than previously thought; prompt replacement further prevents new seed from spreading. Yet introduced seed perceived as valuable diffuses rapidly, contributing variation in the form of type diversity or through introgression into local seed. Maize seed dynamics and evolution are thus part of a complex social process driven by farmers' desire to appropriate the value in maize farming, not always achieved by preserving or improving local seed stocks.