Intra-individual variability of eGFR trajectories in early diabetic kidney disease and lack of performance of prognostic biomarkers.

Studies reporting on biomarkers aiming to predict adverse renal outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and kidney disease (DKD) conventionally define a surrogate endpoint either as a percentage of decrease of eGFR (e.g. ≥ 30%) or an absolute decline (e.g. ≥ 5 ml/min/year). The application of those study results in clinical practise however relies on the assumption of a linear and intra-individually stable progression of DKD. We studied 860 patients of the PROVALID study and 178 of an independent population with a relatively preserved eGFR at baseline and at least 5 years of follow up. Individuals with a detrimental prognosis were identified using various thresholds of a percentage or absolute decline of eGFR after each year of follow up. Next, we determined how many of the patients met the same criteria at other points in time. Interindividual eGFR decline was highly variable but in addition intra-individual eGFR trajectories also were frequently non-linear. For example, of all subjects reaching an endpoint defined as a decrease of eGFR by ≥ 30% between baseline and 3 years of follow up, only 60.3 and 45.2% lost at least the same amount between baseline and year 4 or 5. The results were similar when only patients on stable medication or subpopulations based on baseline eGFR or albuminuria status were analyzed or an eGFR decline of ≥ 5 ml/min/1.73m2/year was used. Identification of reliable biomarkers predicting adverse prognosis is a strong clinical need given the large interindividual variability of DKD progression. However, it is conceptually challenging in early DKD because of non-linear intra-individual eGFR trajectories. As a result, the performance of a prognostic biomarker may be accurate after a specific time of follow-up in a single population only.

Will the COVID-19 pandemic slow down in the Northern hemisphere by the onset of summer? An epidemiological hypothesis.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected most countries of the world. As corona viruses are highly prevalent in the cold season, the question remains whether or not the pandemic will improve with increasing temperatures in the Northern hemisphere. We use data from a primary care registry of almost 15,000 patients over 20 years to retrieve information on viral respiratory infection outbreaks. Our analysis suggests that the severity of the pandemic will be softened by the seasonal change to summer.

Fat-free mass and fasting glucose values in patients with and without statin therapy assigned to age groups between <60 and >75 years.

OBJECTIVE: The aging-associated changes in body composition result in an increased cardiometabolic risk. A tremendous reduction of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality can be obtained by statin therapy. Statins are well tolerated, with myopathy as the most serious negative side effect. Some recently published studies indicate that the incidence of type 2 diabetes might be increased during intensified statin therapy. The aim of our study was to investigate whether statin therapy has an influence on the aging-associated changes in fat-free mass (FFM). METHODS: A total of 3,280 persons attending a medical outdoor center between January 2005 and July 2011 were assigned to 3 age groups from <60 to >75 years. Clinical data, body mass index (BMI), and body composition were evaluated in the different age groups in patients with and without statin therapy. To analyze the impact of statin use on FFM, we regressed a patient's FFM on an interaction term between statin use and age and other control variables. RESULTS: Aging was associated with a decrease in BMI and FFM, while fat mass continuously increased up to the age of >75 years. This was paralleled by a continuous increase in fasting glucose levels in patients with and without statin therapy. The loss of FFM between the age group <60 years and >75 years was more pronounced in statin-treated patients (10.88%) than in non-statin users (8.47%). Creatine phosphokinase values revealed a decrease of 7.77 U/l between the age groups <60 and >75 years in non-statin users and of 14.75 U/l in statin users. Statistical analysis indicated that the effect of statin therapy on FFM is more pronounced in younger than in older patients. CONCLUSIONS: Patients under statin therapy seem to be more vulnerable to the aging-associated lowering of FFM. Diagnostic procedures and interventions to prevent a loss of muscle mass might be of particular advantage in elderly patients under statin therapy.

The influence of obesity on the frequency and distribution of medication.

Obesity is a serious health problem in industrialized countries and is associated with a significant increase in total health care costs. Only few data are available about the costs of drug therapies in patients with an increased body weight treated under clinical routine procedures. Such data could support efforts to intensify obesity prevention and treatment programmes in order to reduce comorbidities and costs. We have evaluated body mass index (BMI), diagnosis, and medication in 3360 outpatients (2175 women and 1185 men; mean age: 56.7 +/- 17.5 years). All patients underwent physical examinations, including BMI determination, and provided a detailed record concerning medication. In 1809 patients, the percentage of body fat content was measured with a bioimpedance method (OMRON BF 302 body fat monitor). Continuous variables were compared using the t-test or Wilcoxon U-test. Frequency distributions were compared using chi-squared tests. With respect to BMI, most of the patients (n = 1793; 53 %) were overweight or obese, 1349 (40 %) showed a normal BMI and 218 (7 %) a low BMI. The majority of cardiovascular (61 %), rheumatological (61.1 %) and metabolic (60.4 %) medication was administered to overweight and obese patients. Parallel findings could be obtained by analysing the percentage of body fat and the frequency of medication. Overall, 82.5 % of all medication was given to patients with a body fat content >20 %. Our results support the importance of weight-reduction programmes in order to prevent an overall increase in the costs of medication as a consequence of overweight and obesity.