Clinical and longitudinal patterns of frequent presenters to emergency departments: A multi-centre data linkage analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To describe clinical characteristics and longitudinal patterns of representation in a cohort of patients who frequently present to EDs for care. METHODS: A retrospective data analysis linking routinely collected ED data across three hospitals. The study population consisted of patients who presented to any ED on 10 or more occasions in any continuous 365-day period from 1 July 2015 to 30 June 2021. Presenting complaints were divided into those with any mental health, drug and alcohol, or social presentations (MHDAS group) and those without (non-MHDAS group). Outcomes of interest were number of presentations as well as temporal and facility clustering of presentations. A per patient regression analysis was performed to identify independent risk factors for increased presentations. RESULTS: Presentations by 1640 frequent ED presenters in the study constituted 4.6% of total ED presentations. MHDAS study group were younger, predominantly English speaking, twice as likely to be married, had lower hospital admission rates and almost three times as many of them did not wait for treatment. Statistically significant differences were also found between these groups regarding presentation clustering, facility entropy, each of the four categories of the number of ED presentations, and Index of Relative Socio-Economic Advantage and Disadvantage. CONCLUSION: Representations associated with MHDAS have a different trajectory of representation episodes compared to non-MHDAS group. Escalating number of presentations and clustering are important predictors of future representation numbers. Those 'did not waits' who appear to be representing would be the highest risk of ongoing and persistent representations in the future and should be the target of early interventions to ensure they are accessing appropriate care before this happens.

Formulating Initial Programme Theories of the Healthy Homes and Neighbourhoods Integrated Care Initiative.

Introduction: The Healthy Homes and Neighbourhoods (HHAN) integrated care initiative was designed to break intergenerational cycles of social and health inequalities and enhance access to and engagement with health and social services for vulnerable families in the Sydney Local Health District. We sought to unearth the initial programme theory of the HHAN initiative to inform rollout to other relevant areas. Methods: We conducted a critical realist evaluation using steps. (1) Exploring the events around the HHAN initiative development. (2) Explore consumer experiences. (3) Identifying the entities and associations characterising the HHAN initiative and related outcomes. (4) Searching for different theoretical perspectives and explanations (abduction). (5) Hypothesising the mechanisms and [context] conditions that might have activated the generation of the HHAN outcomes (retroduction). Results: We identified three central mechanisms; trust, buy-in and motivation, and understanding family dynamics operating across consumer, provider and systems levels of the HHAN initiative. Discussion: These programme theories reveal that to achieve the goals of HHAN, interpersonal dynamics, fostering buy-in and ensuring motivation of both the consumers and care workers should be sought and sustained at all levels. Conclusion: The programme theories unveil that integrated care initiatives should foster positive relationships at all levels to ensure favourable consumer outcomes.

Unpacking the design, implementation and uptake of community-integrated health care services: a critical realist synthesis.

INTRODUCTION: Community-integrated care initiatives are increasingly being used for social and health service delivery and show promising outcomes. Nevertheless, it is unclear what structures and underlining causal agents (generative mechanisms) are responsible for explaining how and why they work or not. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Critical realist synthesis, a theory-driven approach to reviewing and synthesising literature based on the critical realist philosophy of science, underpinned the study. Two lenses guided our evidence synthesis, the community health system and the patient-focused perspective of integrated care. The realist synthesis was conducted through the following steps: (1) concept mining and framework formulation, (2) searching for and scrutinising the evidence, (3) extracting and synthesising the evidence (4) developing the narratives from causal explanatory theories, and (5) disseminate, implement and evaluate. RESULTS: Three programme theories, each aligning with three groups of stakeholders, were unearthed. At the systems level, three bundles of mechanisms were identified, that is, (1) commitment and motivation, (2) willingness to address integrated health concerns and (3) shared vision and goals. At the provider level, five bundles of mechanisms critical to the successful implementation of integrated care initiatives were abstracted, that is, (1) shared vision and buy-in, (2) shared learning and empowerment, (3) perceived usefulness, (4) trust and perceived support and (5) perceived role recognition and appreciation. At the user level, five bundles of mechanisms were identified, that is, (1) motivation, (2) perceived interpersonal trust, (3) user-empowerment, (4) perceived accessibility to required services and (5) self-efficacy and self-determination. CONCLUSION: We systematically captured mechanism-based explanatory models to inform practice communities on how and why community-integrated models work and under what health systems conditions. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42020210442.

Audit of the Sydney Local Health District Public Health Unit notification and contact tracing system during the first wave of COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: To conduct a real-time audit to assess a Continuous Quality Improvement (CQI) activity to improve the quality of public health data in the Sydney Local Health District (SLHD) Public Health Unit during the first wave of COVID-19. METHODS: A real-time audit of the Notifiable Conditions Information Management System was conducted for positive cases of COVID-19 and their close contacts from SLHD. After recording missing and inaccurate data, the audit team then corrected the data. Multivariable regression models were used to look for associations with workload and time. RESULTS: A total of 293 cases were audited. Variables measuring completeness were associated with improvement over time (p<0.0001), whereas those measuring accuracy reduced with increased workload (p=0.0003). In addition, the audit team achieved 100% data quality by correcting data. CONCLUSION: Utilising a team, separate from operational staff, to conduct a real-time audit of data quality is an efficient and effective way of improving epidemiological data. Implications for public health: Implementation of CQI in a public health unit can improve data quality during times of stress. Auditing teams can also act as an intervention in their own right to achieve high-quality data at minimal cost. Together, this can result in timely and high-quality public health data.

Using Geospatial Analysis to Inform Development of a Place-Based Integrated Care Initiative: The Healthy Homes and Neighbourhoods Experience.

INTRODUCTION: Disadvantaged families experience many barriers to accessing health and social care. The Healthy Homes and Neighbourhoods (HHAN) Integrated Care Initiative was developed to address these barriers, and ensure families have their complex needs met and are kept safe and connected to society. DESCRIPTION: A spatial epidemiology approach was taken, as part of the HHAN feasibility phase, to identify the geographical distribution of the "most vulnerable" families in Sydney Local Health District (SLHD). A literature review was conducted to identify indicators of family stress and disadvantage, and cluster and hotspot analyses were undertaken. Hotspots of family stress and disadvantage were mapped for SLHD and used to identify areas for HHAN place-based delivery, and for collaborative co-design. DISCUSSION: The HHAN initiative called for consideration of context and the undertaking of collaborative design with communities. The spatial analysis provided a more accurate picture of family stress and disadvantage than previously available and provided a tool that could be used during consultation and planning activities. CONCLUSION: When planning place-based integrated care initiatives, spatial analysis of small geographic scales can allow identification of areas of concentrated or complex disadvantage that may be masked when analysis is performed on larger areas, allowing for targeted, place-based delivery of programs to those most in need.

Care Coordination for Vulnerable Families in the Sydney Local Health District: What Works for Whom, under What Circumstances, and Why?

INTRODUCTION: Healthy Homes and Neighbourhoods (HHAN), an integrated care programme in the Sydney Local Health District (SLHD), seeks to address the needs of disadvantaged families through care coordination, as one of its components. This research aims to determine for whom, when and why the care coordination component of HHAN works, and establish the reported outcomes for clients, service-providers and partner organisations. METHODS: Critical realist methodology was utilised to undertake a qualitative evaluation of the impact of care coordination. Purposive sampling was used to select a total of 37 participants for interview, including consumers, service-providers and key stakeholders. Thematic analysis was undertaken to derive the major modes of intervention of HHAN, and data representing these elements was coded and summarised under contexts, mechanisms and outcomes. RESULTS: Analysis indicates that care coordination has a positive impact on clients' sense of independence, self-awareness and outlook on life. Trust and favourable interpersonal relations were identified as major underlying mechanisms for a successful client-provider working relationship. The identified modes of intervention facilitating positive consumer outcomes included accessibility, flexibility and service navigation. Persistent siloes in health and systemic resistance to collaboration was seen to hinder effective care delivery. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that a care coordination model may be effective in engaging disadvantaged families in healthcare, assist them in navigating the health system and can lead to beneficial health and social outcomes. Successful implementation of care coordination requires flexible programme design and experienced and skilful clinicians to fulfil the care coordinator role. There is a need to appreciate the negative impact that the complex and siloed health system can have on disadvantaged families.

A Critical Realist Translational Social Epidemiology Protocol for Concretising and Contextualising a "Theory of Neighbourhood Context, Stress, Depression, and the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD)", Sydney Australia.

BACKGROUND: We will describe here a translational social epidemiology protocol for confirming a critical realist "Theory of Neighbourhood Context, Stress, Depression, and the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD). The approach will include the concretising and contextualising of the above causal theory into programme theories for child and adolescent interventions that aim to break intergenerational cycles of disadvantage and poor life outcomes. In undertaking this work we seek to advance realist translational methodology within the discipline of applied perinatal and paediatric social epidemiology. THEORY AND METHODS: The research settings are in metropolitan Sydney. The design will be a longitudinal, multi-level, mixed method realist evaluation of applied programme interventions that seek to break the intergeneration cycle of social disadvantage and poor child health and developmental outcomes. The programme of research will consist of three components: 1) Operationalisation of the theory and designing of programme initiatives for implementation; 2) Evaluation of the translated programme and implementation theory using Theory of Change and critical realist evaluation; and 3) Theory Testing of realist hypotheses using both intensive and extensive critical realist research methods including realist structural modelling. DISCUSSION: The proposed programme of research will assist in translating empirical explanatory theory building to theory driven interventions. The research will be situated in socially disadvantaged regions of Sydney where the local child and family inter-agencies will collaborate to design and implement new initiatives that address significant disparities in childhood development and adolescent outcomes attributed to neighbourhood circumstances, family stress and intergenerational cycles of disadvantage and poor mental health.

Designing Initiatives for Vulnerable Families: From Theory to Design in Sydney, Australia.

INTRODUCTION: Intergenerational cycles of poverty, violence and crime, poor education and employment opportunities, psychopathology, and poor lifestyle and health behaviours require innovative models of health care delivery to break them. We describe a programme of research informed service development targeting vulnerable families in inner metropolitan Sydney, Australia that is designed to build and confirm a "Theory of Neighbourhood Context, Stress, Depression, and the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD)". We describe the development of an intervention design and business case that drew on earlier realist causal and programme theoretical work. METHODS: Realist causal and programme theory were used to inform the collaborative design of initiatives for vulnerable families. The collaborative design process included: identification of desirable and undesirable outcomes and contextual factors, consultation forums, interagency planning, and development of a service proposal. RESULTS: The design elements included: perinatal coordination, sustained home visiting, integrated service model development, two place-based hubs, health promotion and strengthened research and analysis capability. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate here the design of interventions for vulnerable families in Sydney utilising translational research from previous realist causal and program theory building to operational service design. We have identified the importance of our earlier analysis of underlying causal mechanisms and related programme mechanisms for identifying the elements for the full intervention design. The application of theory added rigour to the design of the integrated care initiatives. In applying the theory to the local situation the analysis took into account: the role of the local agencies; evidence of program effectiveness; determinants and outcomes for local children and their families; the current deployment of service resources; and insights from front-line staff and interagency partners.

Designing an Integrated Care Initiative for Vulnerable Families: Operationalisation of Realist Causal and Programme Theory, Sydney Australia.

INTRODUCTION: In July 2015 Sydney Local Health District (SLHD) implemented an integrated care initiative for vulnerable families in the Inner West region of Sydney, Australia. The initiative was designed as a cross-agency care coordination network that would ensure that vulnerable families: had their complex health and social needs met; kept themselves and their children safe; and were connected to society. We will describe the development of the design that drew on earlier realist causal and program theoretical work. METHODS: Realist causal and program theory were used to inform the collaborative design of an initiative for vulnerable families. The collaborative design process included: identification of desirable and undesirable outcomes and contextual factors, stakeholder consultation, interagency planning, and development of a service proposal. RESULTS: The design elements included: identification of vulnerable family cohorts; care coordination; evidence-informed intervention(s); general practice engagement and support; family health improvement; placed-based neighbourhood initiatives; interagency system change and collaborative planning; monitoring of individual and family outcomes; and evaluation. CONCLUSIONS: The design study described advances toward the implementation of a whole-of-government integrated health and social care initiative. The initiative was designed as a cross-agency care coordination network that would ensure that vulnerable families: had their complex health and social needs met; kept themselves and their children safe; and were connected to society. In so doing we aim to break intergenerational cycles of poverty, violence and crime, poor education and employment opportunities, psychopathology, and poor lifestyle and health behaviours, through strengthening family resilience, improving access to services, and addressing the social determinants of health and wellbeing.

Implementation, Mechanisms of Effect and Context of an Integrated Care Intervention for Vulnerable Families in Central Sydney Australia: A Research and Evaluation Protocol.

INTRODUCTION: In March 2014, the New South Wales (NSW) Government (Australia) announced the NSW Integrated Care Strategy. In response, a family-centred, population-based, integrated care initiative for vulnerable families and their children in Sydney, Australia was developed. The initiative was called Healthy Homes and Neighbourhoods. A realist translational social epidemiology programme of research and collaborative design is at the foundation of its evaluation. THEORY AND METHOD: The UK Medical Research Council (MRC) Framework for evaluating complex health interventions was adapted. This has four components, namely 1) development, 2) feasibility/piloting, 3) evaluation and 4) implementation. We adapted the Framework to include: critical realist, theory driven, and continuous improvement approaches. The modified Framework underpins this research and evaluation protocol for Healthy Homes and Neighbourhoods. DISCUSSION: The NSW Health Monitoring and Evaluation Framework did not make provisions for assessment of the programme layers of context, or the effect of programme mechanism at each level. We therefore developed a multilevel approach that uses mixed-method research to examine not only outcomes, but also what is working for whom and why.

Realist theory construction for a mixed method multilevel study of neighbourhood context and postnatal depression.

BACKGROUND: We have recently described a protocol for a study that aims to build a theory of neighbourhood context and postnatal depression. That protocol proposed a critical realist Explanatory Theory Building Method comprising of an: (1) emergent phase, (2) construction phase, and (3) confirmatory phase. A concurrent triangulated mixed method multilevel cross-sectional study design was described. The protocol also described in detail the Theory Construction Phase which will be presented here. METHODS: The Theory Construction Phase will include: (1) defining stratified levels; (2) analytic resolution; (3) abductive reasoning; (4) comparative analysis (triangulation); (5) retroduction; (6) postulate and proposition development; (7) comparison and assessment of theories; and (8) conceptual frameworks and model development. THEORY CONSTRUCTION: The stratified levels of analysis in this study were predominantly social and psychological. The abductive analysis used the theoretical frames of: Stress Process; Social Isolation; Social Exclusion; Social Services; Social Capital, Acculturation Theory and Global-economic level mechanisms. Realist propositions are presented for each analysis of triangulated data. Inference to best explanation is used to assess and compare theories. A conceptual framework of maternal depression, stress and context is presented that includes examples of mechanisms at psychological, social, cultural and global-economic levels. Stress was identified as a necessary mechanism that has the tendency to cause several outcomes including depression, anxiety, and health harming behaviours. The conceptual framework subsequently included conditional mechanisms identified through the retroduction including the stressors of isolation and expectations and buffers of social support and trust. CONCLUSION: The meta-theory of critical realism is used here to generate and construct social epidemiological theory using stratified ontology and both abductive and retroductive analysis. The findings will be applied to the development of a middle range theory and subsequent programme theory for local perinatal child and family interventions.

Being alone and expectations lost: a critical realist study of maternal depression in South Western Sydney.

The study reported here is part of a critical realist multilevel study. It seeks to identify and explain complex perinatal contextual social and psychosocial mechanisms that may influence the developmental origins of health and disease, with a focus on the role of postnatal depression. The aims of the greater study are to: (1) describe the phenomenon of postnatal depression in South Western Sydney; and (2) identify mechanisms that would add to our understanding of the psycho-social causes of maternal depression. This paper will move beyond our previous quantitative descriptions of individual-level predictors of depressive symptoms by seeking the views of local mothers and practitioners, to explain the mechanisms that might be involved. The study was set in South Western Sydney, New South Wales, Australia. An Explanatory Theory Building Method was used. The previously reported quantitative study was a non-linear principal component analysis and logistic regression study of 15,389 months delivering in 2002 and 2003. This intensive qualitative study used open coding of interviews, of seven practitioners and three naturally occurring mothers groups, to enable maximum emergence. The theoretical concepts identified were: attachment and nurturing, infant temperament, unplanned pregnancy and sole parenthood, support for mothers, access to services, stress, financial hardship, isolation and marginalisation, mothers' "loss of control" and "power", and expectations and dreams. Being alone and expectations lost emerged as possible triggers of stress and depression for mothers. These findings might also apply to others who have their dreams shattered during life's transitions. In these situations social and cultural context can either nurture and support or marginalise and isolate. The challenge for policy and practice is to support mothers and their partners during the transition to parenthood within a challenging social and material context.

Bayesian hierarchical spatial regression of maternal depressive symptoms in South Western Sydney, Australia.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing interest in the role played by maternal depression in mediating the effects of adversity during pregnancy and poor infant outcomes. There is also increasing evidence from multilevel regression studies for an association of area-level economic deprivation and poor individual mental health. The purpose of the study reported here is to explore the spatial distribution of postnatal depressive symptoms in South Western Sydney, Australia, and to identify covariate associations that could inform subsequent multilevel studies. METHODS: Mothers (n = 15,389) delivering in 2002 and 2003 were assessed at 2-3 weeks after delivery for risk factors for depressive symptoms. The individual-level binary outcome variables were Edinburgh Depression Scale (EDS) >9 and >12. The association between social, demographic and ecological factors and aggregated outcome variables were investigated using exploratory factor analysis and multivariate hierarchical Bayesian spatial regression. Relative risks from the final EDS >12 regression model were mapped to visualise the contribution from explanatory covariates and residual components. RESULTS: The exploratory factor analysis identified six factors: neighbourhood adversity, social cohesion, health behaviours, housing quality, social services, and support networks. Variables associated with neighbourhood adversity, social cohesion, social networks, and ethnic diversity were consistently associated with aggregated depressive symptoms. Measures of social disadvantage, lack of social cohesion and lack of social capital were associated with increased depressive symptoms. The association with social disadvantage was not significant when controlling for ethnic diversity and social capital. CONCLUSIONS: The findings support the theoretical proposition that neighbourhood adversity causes maternal psychological distress and depression within the context of social buffers including social networks, social cohesion, and social services. The finding have implications for the distribution of health services including early nurse home visiting which has recently been confirmed to be effective in preventing postnatal depression.

Realist explanatory theory building method for social epidemiology: a protocol for a mixed method multilevel study of neighbourhood context and postnatal depression.

A recent criticism of social epidemiological studies, and multi-level studies in particular has been a paucity of theory. We will present here the protocol for a study that aims to build a theory of the social epidemiology of maternal depression. We use a critical realist approach which is trans-disciplinary, encompassing both quantitative and qualitative traditions, and that assumes both ontological and hierarchical stratification of reality. We describe a critical realist Explanatory Theory Building Method comprising of an: 1) emergent phase, 2) construction phase, and 3) confirmatory phase. A concurrent triangulated mixed method multilevel cross-sectional study design is described. The Emergent Phase uses: interviews, focus groups, exploratory data analysis, exploratory factor analysis, regression, and multilevel Bayesian spatial data analysis to detect and describe phenomena. Abductive and retroductive reasoning will be applied to: categorical principal component analysis, exploratory factor analysis, regression, coding of concepts and categories, constant comparative analysis, drawing of conceptual networks, and situational analysis to generate theoretical concepts. The Theory Construction Phase will include: 1) defining stratified levels; 2) analytic resolution; 3) abductive reasoning; 4) comparative analysis (triangulation); 5) retroduction; 6) postulate and proposition development; 7) comparison and assessment of theories; and 8) conceptual frameworks and model development. The strength of the critical realist methodology described is the extent to which this paradigm is able to support the epistemological, ontological, axiological, methodological and rhetorical positions of both quantitative and qualitative research in the field of social epidemiology. The extensive multilevel Bayesian studies, intensive qualitative studies, latent variable theory, abductive triangulation, and Inference to Best Explanation provide a strong foundation for Theory Construction. The study will contribute to defining the role that realism and mixed methods can play in explaining the social determinants and developmental origins of health and disease.

Social determinants of maternal self-rated health in South Western Sydney, Australia.

BACKGROUND: From 2000 a routine survey of mothers with newborn infants was commenced in South Western Sydney. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship of maternal self-rated health, as a measure of well-being, to various socio-demographic factors including measures of social capital, country of birth, financial status and employment. RESULTS: The sample consisted of 23,534 mothers who delivered in South Western Sydney between 2004 and 2006. The data were collected as part of a routine post-partum assessment at 2-4 weeks postpartum. We examined the relationship of self-rated health with socio-demographic variables using binary logistic regression. Worse self-rated health was reported in 4% of women. Variables which were found to be significantly associated with worse self-rated health were: poor financial situation, public housing accommodation, fathers employment, no car access, unplanned pregnancy, maternal smoking, poor emotional and social support, and motherhood being more difficult than expected. CONCLUSION: We confirmed the importance of social disadvantage and social isolation as independent risk factors for poor self-reported health. The findings reported here provide further justification for public health interventions which increase support for socially excluded mothers and strengthen their connection to their community.

Immigrant maternal depression and social networks. A multilevel Bayesian spatial logistic regression in South Western Sydney, Australia.

The purpose is to explore the multilevel spatial distribution of depressive symptoms among migrant mothers in South Western Sydney and to identify any group level associations that could inform subsequent theory building and local public health interventions. Migrant mothers (n=7256) delivering in 2002 and 2003 were assessed at 2-3 weeks after delivery for risk factors for depressive symptoms. The binary outcome variables were Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale scores (EPDS) of >9 and >12. Individual level variables included were: financial income, self-reported maternal health, social support network, emotional support, practical support, baby trouble sleeping, baby demanding and baby not content. The group level variable reported here is aggregated social support networks. We used Bayesian hierarchical multilevel spatial modelling with conditional autoregression. Migrant mothers were at higher risk of having depressive symptoms if they lived in a community with predominantly Australian-born mothers and strong social capital as measured by aggregated social networks. These findings suggest that migrant mothers are socially isolated and current home visiting services should be strengthened for migrant mothers living in communities where they may have poor social networks.

Clusters of maternal depressive symptoms in South Western Sydney, Australia.

The purpose of this study is to explore the spatial distribution of perinatal depressive symptoms in South Western Sydney, Australia, and to identify any clusters that could inform subsequent qualitative, ecological and multilevel studies and local public health interventions. A routine survey of mothers with newborn infants was commenced in 2000. The survey included the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). Mothers (n=15,389) delivering in 2002 and 2003 were assessed at 2-3 weeks after delivery for risk factors for depressive symptoms. The binary outcome variables were EPDS>9 and EPDS>12. EPDS>9 and EPDS>12 was mapped for 101 suburbs using likelihood standardised morbidity ratios (SMRs) and Bayesian log-normal models with conditional autoregressive (CAR) components. Open domain software SaTScan™ was used to test for the presence of clusters. The Bayesian methods identified clusters of depressive symptoms in north-east, north-west and southern areas of the study region. The northern clusters were statistically significant using SaTScan™. There were two high risk clusters of EPDS>9 (radius 4.3 and 5.6 km, both p<0.001) and two high risk clusters of EPDS>12 (radius 1.8 km p=0.003 and radius 3.97 km p=0.012). The clusters were in regions known to be socially disadvantaged and with high rates of non-English speaking migrants. The study findings will be used to inform future qualitative and epidemiological research, and to plan interagency early intervention services for women, children and their families.

Relationship of postnatal depressive symptoms to infant temperament, maternal expectations, social support and other potential risk factors: findings from a large Australian cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: From 2000 a routine survey of mothers with newborn infants was commenced in South Western Sydney. The survey included the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS). The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and risk factors for postnatal depressive symptoms in women living in metropolitan Sydney, Australia. METHODS: Mothers (n=15,389) delivering in 2002 and 2003 were assessed at 2-3 weeks after delivery for risk factors for depressive symptoms. The binary outcome variables were EPDS>9 and >12. Logistic regression was used for the multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The prevalence of EPDS>9 was 16.93 per 100 (95% CI: 16.34 to 17.52) and EPDS>12 was 7.73 per 100 (95% CI: 6.96 to 7.78). The final parsimonious logistic regression models included measures of infant behaviour, financial stress, mother's expectation of motherhood, emotional support, sole parenthood, social support and mother's country of birth. CONCLUSIONS: Infant temperament and unmet maternal expectations have a strong association with depressive symptoms with implications for the design of both preventative and treatment strategies. The findings also support the proposition that social exclusion and social isolation are important determinants of maternal depression.

Postnatal depression and socio-demographic risk: factors associated with Edinburgh Depression Scale scores in a metropolitan area of New South Wales, Australia.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence and risk factors for postnatal depressive symptoms in women living in metropolitan Sydney, Australia. METHOD: A population-based cross-sectional study of mothers of newborn infants was undertaken during home and community clinic visits in South West Sydney from 2000 to 2004. A comprehensive 45 item survey questionnaire was completed by 29 405 mothers. A self-report Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) of depressive symptoms was completed by 25 455 mothers at the first child and family nurse visit. The primary study outcome measures were EPDS scores greater than 9 and greater than 12. RESULTS: At a mean infant age of 2.16 weeks the prevalence of EPDS >9 was 12% and EPDS >12 was 6.2%. Results from multiple logistic regression revealed that EPDS >9 and EPDS > 2 were associated with a maternal country of birth other than Australia, difficult financial situation, living in the suburb one year or less, 'no regret leaving the suburb', unplanned pregnancy, not breastfeeding, and poor rating of mother's own health. Other social demographic factors such as marital status, maternal age, education of mother, or being Aboriginal or a Torres Strait Islander show no significant association with postnatal depressive symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: The results confirm prevalence rates and maternal individual-level risk factors from previous studies. The study contributes to the limited number of studies of postnatal depression and socio-demographic factors. Neighbourhood and community group-level factors may be important and should be studied further.