Mapping the spatial and temporal variability of flood susceptibility using remotely sensed normalized difference vegetation index and the forecasted changes in the future.

Accurate runoff forecasting plays a considerable role in the appropriate water resource planning and management. The spatial and temporal evaluation of the flood susceptibility was explored in the Quebec basin, Canada. This study provides a new strategy for runoff modelling as one of the complicated variables by developing new machine learning techniques along with remote sensing. A novel scheme of the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) known as the generalized structure of GMDH (GSGGMDH) is developed to overcome this classical approach's limitation. A simple time series based scenario with exogenous variables including precipitation and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was introduced for runoff forecasting. MODIS data included MOD13Q1 product was employed and a JavaScript code was developed to preprocess collected data in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment. Using different seasonal and non-seasonal lags of all input variables, the developed GSGMDH found the most optimum input combination for each station in terms of simplicity and accuracy, simultaneously (average values; SI = 0.554, RMSRE = 1.55, MAE = 5.076). The precipitation values are modelled with the CanEsm2 climate change model. To apply NDVI for runoff forecasting, a simple spatial-temporal GSGMDH based model was developed (average values; SI = 0.27; RMSRE = 8.27, MAE = 0.08). The forecasting results indicated that the months in which the maximum runoff occurred have changed, and these months have increased compared to the historic period. In the historical period, the frequency of maximum runoff was in April and March. Still, for the two forecasting periods (i.e. 2020-2039 and 2040-2059), the months in which the maximum runoff has occurred have changed, and their amount has been reduced and added to other months, especially February and August.

A novel stochastic wastewater quality modeling based on fuzzy techniques.

Measurement and prediction of wastewater quality parameters are crucial for evaluating the risk to the receiving waters. This study presents new methods for the identification of outlier data and smoothing as an effective pre-processing technique prito to modelling. This new data processing method uses a combination of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and -the adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system with fuzzy C-means clustering (FCM) (ANFIS-FCM). These new pre-processing methodsare compared to previously employed non-linear approaches for modelling of wastewater influent/effluent 5-day biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5), chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total suspended solids (TSS). Linear modelling of each parameter, 242 linear models, were investigated, and a linear model for each parameter was selected. The results of the non-linear models led to an acceptable prediction for qualitative parameters so that the high coefficient of determination (R 2 ) was observed for the influent and effluent BOD and TSS, respectively. The range of the R 2 for all models was recorded as 0.8-0.87 and 0.83-0.89, respectively. By a combination of the linear and non-linear mothods a hybrid model was introduced. The proposed hybrid model for the influent BOD with the highest correlation between the observed and predicted values, and limited scattering was identified as the optimal model (R2 = 0.95). The use of hybrid models to predict wastewater quality parameters improved the performance and efficiency of the models. In addition, a comparison of the hybrid model with the recently developed models in the literature indicates that the developed ARIMA-ANFIS-FCM outperformed other models.

A Novel Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Estimating the Bank Profile Shape and Dimensions of Stable Channels Using the Maximum Entropy Principle.

This paper presents an extensive and practical study of the estimation of stable channel bank shape and dimensions using the maximum entropy principle. The transverse slope (St) distribution of threshold channel bank cross-sections satisfies the properties of the probability space. The entropy of St is subject to two constraint conditions, and the principle of maximum entropy must be applied to find the least biased probability distribution. Accordingly, the Lagrange multiplier (λ) as a critical parameter in the entropy equation is calculated numerically based on the maximum entropy principle. The main goal of the present paper is the investigation of the hydraulic parameters influence governing the mean transverse slope (St¯) value comprehensively using a Gene Expression Programming (GEP) by knowing the initial information (discharge (Q) and mean sediment size (d50)) related to the intended problem. An explicit and simple equation of the St¯ of banks and the geometric and hydraulic parameters of flow is introduced based on the GEP in combination with the previous shape profile equation related to previous researchers. Therefore, a reliable numerical hybrid model is designed, namely Entropy-based Design Model of Threshold Channels (EDMTC) based on entropy theory combined with the evolutionary algorithm of the GEP model, for estimating the bank profile shape and also dimensions of threshold channels. A wide range of laboratory and field data are utilized to verify the proposed EDMTC. The results demonstrate that the used Shannon entropy model is accurate with a lower average value of Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) equal to 0.317 than a previous model proposed by Cao and Knight (1997) (MARE = 0.98) in estimating the bank profile shape of threshold channels based on entropy for the first time. Furthermore, the EDMTC proposed in this paper has acceptable accuracy in predicting the shape profile and consequently, the dimensions of threshold channel banks with a wide range of laboratory and field data when only the channel hydraulic characteristics (e.g., Q and d50) are known. Thus, EDMTC can be used in threshold channel design and implementation applications in cases when the channel characteristics are unknown. Furthermore, the uncertainty analysis of the EDMTC supports the model's high reliability with a Width of Uncertainty Bound (WUB) of ±0.03 and standard deviation (Sd) of 0.24.

A generalized linear stochastic model for lake level prediction.

Endorheic lakes are one of the most important factors of an environment. Regarding their morphology, these lakes, in particular saline lakes, are much more sensitive and can either benefit or pose a threat to their surroundings. Thus, constant monitoring of such lakes' water level, modeling and analyzing them for future planning and management policies is vitally important. We proposed a generalized linear stochastic model (GLSM) for forecasting the weekly and monthly Urmia lake water levels, the sixth-largest saltwater lake on Earth. In this methodology, three approaches are defined to pre-process data. The first approach is merely based on the differencing method, while the second and third are a one-step (the combination of de-trending with standardization and spectral analysis) and two-step (the combination of the 2nd approach with normalization transform) preprocessing, respectively. A thorough comparison of the GLSM results with eminence nonlinear AI models (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems, ANFIS, Multilayer Perceptron, MLP, Gene Expression Programming, GEP, Support Vector Machine with Firefly algorithm, SVM-FFA, and Artificial Neural Networks ANN) showed that by using an appropriate method that delivers accurate information of the entailing terms in time series, it is possible to model Urmia lake level with acceptable precision. Concisely, the GSLM with coefficients of determination (R2) 99.957% and root mean squared error (RMSE) of 2.121% outperformed the SVM-FFA with R2 99.59%, RMSE 3.27%, ANN with R2 99.56%, RMSE 3.3%, ANFIS with R2 98.9%, RMSE 4.3%, GP with R2 99.89%, RMSE 3.47%, GEP with R2 94.75%, RMSE 4.15% for forecasting weekly time series. In forecasting monthly time series, the GLSM method with R2 99.517% and RMSE 6.91% also outperformed GEP R2 91.95%, RMSE 15.3%, ANFIS R2 92.85%, RMSE 47.55% models. Consequently, GSLM proved that by applying proper comprehensible linear techniques promising results can be obtained rather than using sophisticated AI methods.

Predicting wastewater treatment plant quality parameters using a novel hybrid linear-nonlinear methodology.

Biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total dissolved solids (TDS) and total suspended solids (TSS) are the most commonly regulated wastewater effluent parameters. The measurement and prediction of these parameters are essential for assessing the performance and upgrade of wastewater treatment facilities. In this study, a new methodology, combining a linear stochastic model (ARIMA) and nonlinear outlier robust extreme learning machine technique (ORELM) with various preprocesses, is presented to model the quality parameters of effluent wastewater (ARIMA-ORELM). For each of the studied parameters, 144 different (144 × 8 models) linear models (ARIMA) are presented, with the superior model of each parameter being selected based on statistical indices. Moreover, 48 nonlinear models (ORELM) and 48 hybrid models (ARIMA-ORELM) were considered. The use of linear and nonlinear approaches to model the linear and nonlinear terms (respectively) of each time series in the hybrid model increased the efficiency and accuracy of the predictions for all of the time series. The influent wastewater nonlinear TSS model and the effluent COD and BOD models attained the best performance with a high correlation coefficient of 0.95. The use of hybrid models improved the prediction capability of all quality parameters with the best performance being achieved for the effluent BOD model (R2 = 0.99).

Novel hybrid linear stochastic with non-linear extreme learning machine methods for forecasting monthly rainfall a tropical climate.

A novel hybrid approach is presented that can more accurately predict monthly rainfall in a tropical climate by integrating a linear stochastic model with a powerful non-linear extreme learning machine method. This new hybrid method was then evaluated by considering four general scenarios. In the first scenario, the modeling process is initiated without preprocessing input data as a base case. While in other three scenarios, the one-step and two-step procedures are utilized to make the model predictions more precise. The mentioned scenarios are based on a combination of stationarization techniques (i.e., differencing, seasonal and non-seasonal standardization and spectral analysis), and normality transforms (i.e., Box-Cox, John and Draper, Yeo and Johnson, Johnson, Box-Cox-Mod, log, log standard, and Manly). In scenario 2, which is a one-step scenario, the stationarization methods are employed as preprocessing approaches. In scenario 3 and 4, different combinations of normality transform, and stationarization methods are considered as preprocessing techniques. In total, 61 sub-scenarios are evaluated resulting 11013 models (10785 linear methods, 4 nonlinear models, and 224 hybrid models are evaluated). The uncertainty of the linear, nonlinear and hybrid models are examined by Monte Carlo technique. The best preprocessing technique is the utilization of Johnson normality transform and seasonal standardization (respectively) (R2 = 0.99; RMSE = 0.6; MAE = 0.38; RMSRE = 0.1, MARE = 0.06, UI = 0.03 &UII = 0.05). The results of uncertainty analysis indicated the good performance of proposed technique (d-factor = 0.27; 95PPU = 83.57). Moreover, the results of the proposed methodology in this study were compared with an evolutionary hybrid of adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) with firefly algorithm (ANFIS-FFA) demonstrating that the new hybrid methods outperformed ANFIS-FFA method.

Multi-objective evolutionary polynomial regression-based prediction of energy consumption probing.

Electrocoagulation (EC) is employed to investigate the energy consumption (EnC) of synthetic wastewater. In order to find the best process conditions, the influence of various parameters including initial pH, initial dye concentration, applied voltage, initial electrolyte concentration, and treatment time are investigated in this study. EnC is considered the main criterion of process evaluation in investigating the effect of the independent variables on the EC process and determining the optimum condition. Evolutionary polynomial regression is combined with a multi-objective genetic algorithm (EPR-MOGA) to present a new, simple and accurate equation for estimating EnC to overcome existing method weaknesses. To survey the influence of the effective variables, six different input combinations are considered. According to the results, EPR-MOGA Model 1 is the most accurate compared to other models, as it has the lowest error indices in predicting EnC (MARE = 0.35, RMSE = 2.33, SI = 0.23 and R2 = 0.98). A comparison of EPR-MOGA with reduced quadratic multiple regression methods in terms of feasibility confirms that EPR-MOGA is an effective alternative method. Moreover, the partial derivative sensitivity analysis method is employed to analyze the EnC variation trend according to input variables.

An expert system with radial basis function neural network based on decision trees for predicting sediment transport in sewers.

In this study, an expert system with a radial basis function neural network (RBF-NN) based on decision trees (DT) is designed to predict sediment transport in sewer pipes at the limit of deposition. First, sensitivity analysis is carried out to investigate the effect of each parameter on predicting the densimetric Froude number (Fr). The results indicate that utilizing the ratio of the median particle diameter to pipe diameter (d/D), ratio of median particle diameter to hydraulic radius (d/R) and volumetric sediment concentration (C(V)) as the input combination leads to the best Fr prediction. Subsequently, the new hybrid DT-RBF method is presented. The results of DT-RBF are compared with RBF and RBF-particle swarm optimization (PSO), which uses PSO for RBF training. It appears that DT-RBF is more accurate (R(2) = 0.934, MARE = 0.103, RMSE = 0.527, SI = 0.13, BIAS = -0.071) than the two other RBF methods. Moreover, the proposed DT-RBF model offers explicit expressions for use by practicing engineers.

A support vector regression-firefly algorithm-based model for limiting velocity prediction in sewer pipes.

Sediment transport without deposition is an essential consideration in the optimum design of sewer pipes. In this study, a novel method based on a combination of support vector regression (SVR) and the firefly algorithm (FFA) is proposed to predict the minimum velocity required to avoid sediment settling in pipe channels, which is expressed as the densimetric Froude number (Fr). The efficiency of support vector machine (SVM) models depends on the suitable selection of SVM parameters. In this particular study, FFA is used by determining these SVM parameters. The actual effective parameters on Fr calculation are generally identified by employing dimensional analysis. The different dimensionless variables along with the models are introduced. The best performance is attributed to the model that employs the sediment volumetric concentration (C(V)), ratio of relative median diameter of particles to hydraulic radius (d/R), dimensionless particle number (D(gr)) and overall sediment friction factor (λ(s)) parameters to estimate Fr. The performance of the SVR-FFA model is compared with genetic programming, artificial neural network and existing regression-based equations. The results indicate the superior performance of SVR-FFA (mean absolute percentage error = 2.123%; root mean square error =0.116) compared with other methods.

Comparison of genetic algorithm and imperialist competitive algorithms in predicting bed load transport in clean pipe.

The existence of sediments in wastewater greatly affects the performance of the sewer and wastewater transmission systems. Increased sedimentation in wastewater collection systems causes problems such as reduced transmission capacity and early combined sewer overflow. The article reviews the performance of the genetic algorithm (GA) and imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) in minimizing the target function (mean square error of observed and predicted Froude number). To study the impact of bed load transport parameters, using four non-dimensional groups, six different models have been presented. Moreover, the roulette wheel selection method is used to select the parents. The ICA with root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.007, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 3.5% show better results than GA (RMSE = 0.007, MAPE = 5.6%) for the selected model. All six models return better results than the GA. Also, the results of these two algorithms were compared with multi-layer perceptron and existing equations.