Characterization of the Temporal Trends in the Rate of Cattle Carcass Condemnations in the US and Dynamic Modeling of the Condemnation Reasons in California With a Seasonal Component.

Based on the 2016 National Cattlemen's Beef Association statistics, the cattle inventory in the US reached 93.5 million head, from which 30.5 million were commercial slaughter in 2016. California ranked fourth among all the US states that raise cattle and calves, with 5.15 million head and approximately 1.18 million slaughtered animals per year. Approximately 0.5% of cattle carcasses in the US are condemned each year, which has an important economic impact on cattle producers.In this study, we first described and compared the temporal trends of cattle carcass condemnations in all the US states from Jan-2005 to Dec-2014. Then, we focused on the condemnation reasons with a seasonal component in California and used dynamic harmonic regression (DHR) models both to model (from Jan-2005 to Dec-2011) and predict (from Jan-2012 to Dec-2014) the carcass condemnations rate in different time horizons (3 to 12 months).Data consisted of daily reports of 35 condemnation reasons per cattle type reported in 684 federally inspected slaughterhouses in the US from Jan-2005 to Dec-2014 and the monthly slaughtered animals per cattle type per states. Almost 1.5 million carcasses were condemned in the US during the 10 year study period (Jan 2005-Dec 2014), and around 40% were associated with three condemnation reasons: malignant lymphoma, septicemia and pneumonia. In California, emaciation, eosinophilic myositis and malignant lymphoma were the only condemnation reasons presenting seasonality and, therefore, the only ones selected to be modeled using DHRs. The DHR models for Jan-2005 to Dec-2011 were able to correctly model the dynamics of the emaciation, malignant lymphoma and eosinophilic myositis condemnation rates with coefficient of determination ( Rt2 ) of 0.98, 0.87 and 0.78, respectively. The DHR models for Jan-2012 to Dec-2014 were able to predict the rate of condemned carcasses 3 month ahead of time with mean relative prediction error of 33, 11, and 38%, respectively. The systematic analysis of carcass condemnations and slaughter data in a more real-time fashion could be used to identify changes in carcass condemnation trends and more timely support the implementation of prevention and mitigation strategies that reduce the number of carcass condemnations in the US.

Tuberculosis Prevalence Among US Crop-Workers, 2000 to 2012: Trends and Contributing Factors.

OBJECTIVE: We intend to study tuberculosis (TB) in one of the poorest communities in the US, hired agriculture workers, for most recent years (2000 to 2012) including the last recession period. METHODS: Time-chart, simple mean differences, and logistic regressions were used to describe TB-prevalence and risk factors among US crop-workers. Data were drawn from the National Agricultural Workers Survey (NAWS). RESULTS: A high TB-prevalence was found among crop-workers with a dramatically increasing trend in recent years. Hispanic ethnicity, having farmworker family members, the presence of health insurance, and good spoken English were associated with an increased TB-prevalence. CONCLUSION: We found risk factors related to ethnicity and poor access to health care, a strong association between agriculture activity and TB, and an increase of TB-cases due to the 2008 downturn in this underserved population. We urge the health authorities to control this epidemic.