Reserve design for uncertain responses of coral reefs to climate change.

Rising sea temperatures cause mass coral bleaching and threaten reefs worldwide. We show how maps of variations in thermal stress can be used to help manage reefs for climate change. We map proxies of chronic and acute thermal stress and develop evidence-based hypotheses for the future response of corals to each stress regime. We then incorporate spatially realistic predictions of larval connectivity among reefs of the Bahamas and apply novel reserve design algorithms to create reserve networks for a changing climate. We show that scales of larval dispersal are large enough to connect reefs from desirable thermal stress regimes into a reserve network. Critically, we find that reserve designs differ according to the anticipated scope for phenotypic and genetic adaptation in corals, which remains uncertain. Attempts to provide a complete reserve design that hedged against different evolutionary outcomes achieved limited success, which emphasises the importance of considering the scope for adaptation explicitly. Nonetheless, 15% of reserve locations were selected under all evolutionary scenarios, making them a high priority for early designation. Our approach allows new insights into coral holobiont adaptation to be integrated directly into an adaptive approach to management.

Thresholds and the resilience of Caribbean coral reefs.

The deteriorating health of the world's coral reefs threatens global biodiversity, ecosystem function, and the livelihoods of millions of people living in tropical coastal regions. Reefs in the Caribbean are among the most heavily affected, having experienced mass disease-induced mortality of the herbivorous urchin Diadema antillarum in 1983 and two framework-building species of coral. Declining reef health is characterized by increases in macroalgae. A critical question is whether the observed macroalgal bloom on Caribbean reefs is easily reversible. To answer this question, we must resolve whether algal-dominated reefs are an alternative stable state of the ecosystem or simply the readily reversible result of a phase change along a gradient of some environmental or ecological parameter. Here, using a fully parameterized simulation model in combination with a simple analytical model, we show that Caribbean reefs became susceptible to alternative stable states once the urchin mortality event of 1983 confined the majority of grazing to parrotfishes. We reveal dramatic hysteresis in a natural system and define critical thresholds of grazing and coral cover beyond which resilience is lost. Most grazing thresholds lie near the upper level observed for parrotfishes in nature, suggesting that reefs are highly sensitive to parrotfish exploitation. Ecosystem thresholds can be combined with stochastic models of disturbance to identify targets for the restoration of ecosystem processes. We illustrate this principle by estimating the relationship between current reef state (coral cover and grazing) and the probability that the reef will withstand moderate hurricane intensity for two decades without becoming entrained in a shift towards a stable macroalgal-dominated state. Such targets may help reef managers face the challenge of addressing global disturbance at local scales.

Prey selection, vertical migrations and the impacts of harvesting upon the population dynamics of a predator-prey system.

A model is developed to describe the interaction between a predator and two prey types located in different regions. Conditions for stability and persistence are analysed. The effects of harvesting the predators are investigated by making the predator mortality rate habitat dependent. Results demonstrate that for any given set of parameter values there is a value of the intrinsic preference of the predator for each prey type at which the system undergoes a Hopf bifurcation. Above this critical value the system evolves towards a stable equilibrium, whereas below it, stable limit cycles arise by Hopf bifurcations. Simulations demonstrate that the presence of demographic stochasticity may destabilise oscillatory populations, thereby causing population extinctions. An application of the model to the foraging behaviour of North Sea cod is described. It is shown that if the preferred prey is more productive, it is likely that the equilibrium will be stable, whereas if the less preferred prey is more productive, populations are likely to display cycles and in the stochastic case become extinct. As cod fishing mortality is increased, the point of bifurcation and region of parameter space for which the system is unstable decreases. An increased understanding of how cod behave may enable fish stocks to be managed more successfully, for example by indicating where marine reserves should be placed.

Mutation analysis of the human CYP3A4 gene 5' regulatory region: population screening using non-radioactive SSCP.

Human CYP3A4 is the major cytochrome P450 isoenzyme in adult human liver and is known to metabolise many xenobiotic and endogenous compounds. There is substantial inter-individual variation in the hepatic levels of CYP3A4. Although, polymorphic mutations have been reported in the 5' regulatory region of the CYP3A4 gene, those that have been investigated so far do not appear to have any effect on gene expression. To determine whether other mutations exist in this region of the gene, we have performed a new population screen on a panel of 101 human DNA samples. A 1140 bp section of the 5' proximal regulatory region of the CYP3A4 gene, containing numerous regulatory motifs, was amplified from genomic DNA as three overlapping segments. The 300 bp distal enhancer region at -7.9kb containing additional regulatory motifs was also amplified. Mutation analysis of the resulting PCR products was carried out using non-radioactive single strand conformation polymorphism (SSCP) and confirmatory sequencing of both DNA strands in those samples showing extra SSCP bands. In addition to detection of the previously reported CYP3A4*1B allele in nine subjects, three novel alleles were found: CYP3A4*1E (having a T-->A transversion at -369 in one subject), CYP3A4*1F (having a C-->G tranversion at -747 in 17 subjects) and CYP3A4*15B containing a nine-nucleotide insertion between -845 and -844 linked to an A-->G transition at -392 and a G-->A transition in exon 6 (position 485 in the cDNA) in one subject. All the novel alleles were heterozygous. No mutations were found in the upstream distal enhancer region. Our results clearly indicate that this rapid and simple SSCP approach can reveal mutant alleles in drug metabolising enzyme genes. Detection and determination of the frequency of novel alleles in CYP3A4 will assist investigation of the relationship between genotype, xenobiotic metabolism and toxicity in the CYP3A family of isoenzymes.