Responding to eruptive transitions during the 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent.

A critical challenge during volcanic emergencies is responding to rapid changes in eruptive behaviour. Actionable advice, essential in times of rising uncertainty, demands the rapid synthesis and communication of multiple datasets with prognoses. The 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano exemplifies these challenges: a series of explosions from 9-22 April 2021 was preceded by three months of effusive activity, which commenced with a remarkably low level of detected unrest. Here we show how the development of an evolving conceptual model, and the expression of uncertainties via both elicitation and scenarios associated with this model, were key to anticipating this transition. This not only required input from multiple monitoring datasets but contextualisation via state-of-the-art hazard assessments, and evidence-based knowledge of critical decision-making timescales and community needs. In addition, we share strategies employed as a consequence of constraints on recognising and responding to eruptive transitions in a resource-constrained setting, which may guide similarly challenged volcano observatories worldwide.

Prevalence of overweight and obesity among children six to ten years of age in the North-East Health region of Jamaica / Prevalencia del sobrepeso y la obesidad entre niños de seis a diez años de edad en la región Noreste de atención a la salud en Jamaica

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence and correlates of overweight and obesity among children six to ten years old in the NorthEast Health Region (NEHR) of Jamaica. METHODS: Weights and heights were measured in a representative sample of 5710 children between the ages of six and ten years in 34 schools between October 2008 and March 2009. Overweight and obesity were defined as body mass index (BMI) Zscore >1SD and >2SD, respectively based on the World Health Organization (WHO)endorsed age and genderspecific growth standards for children. Point prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity were calculated. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to estimate associations between overweight and obesity and age, gender and school location. RESULTS: Overweight and obesity prevalence among children six to ten years old in NEHR, Jamaica, was 10.6% and 7.1%, respectively. Overweight (OR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.18) and obesity (OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.26) prevalence increased significantly with age. Overweight (OR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.27, 1.80) and obesity (OR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.67) prevalence was significantly higher among girls than boys. Children attending ruralpublic schools had less risk of being overweight (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.70) and obese (OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.44) when compared with urbanpublic schools and private schools. Both overweight (OR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.60, 2.78) and obesity (OR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.28) were significantly more common among children attending private schools. After adjusting for age and gender, the results still remained statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight/obesity prevalence among children six to ten years old in NEHR of Jamaica is 17.7% with older children and girls having higher rates. Children attending urbanpublic and private schools have higher prevalence than those attending rural schools. Appropriately targeted interventions are needed to combat this problem.

OBJETIVO: Estimar la prevalencia y los correlatos de sobrepeso y obesidad entre niños de seis a diez años en la región noreste de atención a la salud (RNAS) de Jamaica. SUJETOS Y MÉTODOS: Se midió el peso y la altura en una muestra representativa de 5710 niños en edades entre seis y diez años, en 34 escuelas, entre octubre de 2008 y marzo de 2009. El sobrepeso y la obesidad se definieron como el índice de masa corporal (IMC) de puntuación Z > 1SD y > 2SD, respectivamente, tomando como base las normas específicas de crecimiento por género y edad para los niños, aprobadas por la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS). Se calcularon los estimados de prevalencia puntual del sobrepeso y la obesidad. Se utilizaron los cocientes de probabilidades relativas (OR) e intervalos de confianza (IC) del 95%, a fin de determinar las asociaciones entre el sobrepeso y la obesidad por un lado, y la edad, el género y lugar de la escuela, por otro lado. RESULTADOS: La prevalencia del sobrepeso y la obesidad entre los niños de seis a diez años en la RNAS, Jamaica, fue de 10.6% y 7.1%, respectivamente. La prevalencia del sobrepeso (OR = 1.11, IC de 95%: 1.04, 1.18) y de la obesidad (OR = 1.17, IC del 95%: 1.08, 1.26) aumentó significativamente con la edad. La prevalencia del sobrepeso (OR = 1.51, IC del 95%: 1.27, 1.80) y la obesidad (OR = 1,36, IC de 95%: 1.11, 1.67) fue significativamente mayor entre las hembras que entre los varones. Los niños que asistían a las escuelas públicas rurales tuvieron menos riesgo de tener sobrepeso (OR = 0.57, IC del 95%: 0.46, 0.70) y ser obesos (OR = 0.35, IC del 95%: 0.28, 0.44) en comparación con los de las escuelas urbanas públicas o privadas. Tanto el sobrepeso (OR = 2.11, IC del 95%: 1.60, 2.78) como la obesidad (OR = 1.68, IC del 95%: 1.24, 2.28) fueron significativamente más frecuentes entre los niños que asisten a escuelas privadas. Después de ajustar por edad y género, los resultados continuaban siendo todavía estadísticamente significativos. CONCLUSIONES: La prevalencia del sobrepeso/obesidad entre niños de seis a diez años en la RNAS en Jamaica es de 17.7%, correspondiendo las tasas más altas a las hembras, y a los niños o niñas de mayor edad. Los niños y niñas que asisten a escuelas urbanas públicas y privadas presentan una mayor prevalencia que los que asisten a escuelas rurales. Se necesitan intervenciones dirigidas adecuadamente a combatir este problema.

Prevalence of overweight and obesity among children six to ten years of age in the north-east health region of Jamaica.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence and correlates of overweight and obesity among children six to ten years old in the North-East Health Region (NEHR) ofJamaica. METHODS: Weights and heights were measured in a representative sample of 5710 children between the ages of six and ten years in 34 schools between October 2008 and March 2009. Overweight and obesity were defined as body mass index (BMI) Z-score > 1SD and >2SD, respectively based on the World Health Organization (WHO)-endorsed age and gender-specific growth standards for children. Point prevalence estimates of overweight and obesity were calculated. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to estimate associations between overweight and obesity and age, gender and school location. RESULTS: Overweight and obesity prevalence among children six to ten years old in NEHR, Jamaica, was 10.6% and 7.1%, respectively. Overweight (OR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.18) and obesity (OR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.26) prevalence increased significantly with age. Overweight (OR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.27, 1.80) and obesity (OR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.11, 1.67) prevalence was significantly higher among girls than boys. Children attending rural-public schools had less risk of being overweight (OR = 0.57, 95% CI: 0.46, 0.70) and obese (OR = 0.35, 95% CI: 0.28, 0.44) when compared with urban-public schools and private schools. Both overweight (OR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.60, 2.78) and obesity (OR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.28) were significantly more common among children attending private schools. After adjusting for age and gender the results still remained statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight/obesity prevalence among children six to ten years old in NEHR of Jamaica is 17.7% with older children and girls having higher rates. Children attending urban-public and private schools have higher prevalence than those attending rural schools. Appropriately targeted interventions are needed to combat this problem.

MHC class II pseudogene and genomic signature of a 32-kb cosmid in the house finch (Carpodacus mexicanus).

Large-scale sequencing studies in vertebrates have thus far focused primarily on the genomes of a few model organisms. Birds are of interest to genomics because of their much smaller and highly streamlined genomes compared to mammals. However, large-scale genetic work has been confined almost exclusively to the chicken; we know little about general aspects of genomes in nongame birds. This study examines the organization of a genomic region containing an Mhc class II B gene in a representative of another important lineage of the avian tree, the songbirds (Passeriformes). We used a shotgun sequencing approach to determine the sequence of a 32-kb cosmid insert containing a strongly hybridizing Mhc fragment from house finches (Carpodacus mexicanus). There were a total of three genes found on the cosmid clone, about the gene density expected for the mammalian Mhc: a class II Mhc beta-chain gene (Came-DAB1), a serine-threonine kinase, and a zinc finger motif. Frameshift mutations in both the second and third exons of Came-DAB1 and the unalignability of the gene after the third exon suggest that it is a nonfunctional pseudogene. In addition, the identifiable introns of Came-DAB1 are more than twice as large as those of chickens. Nucleotide diversity in the peptide-binding region of Came-DAB1 (Pi = 0.03) was much lower than polymorphic chicken and other functional Mhc genes but higher than the expected diversity for a neutral locus in birds, perhaps because of hitchhiking on a selected Mhc locus close by. The serine-threonine kinase gene is likely functional, whereas the zinc finger motif is likely nonfunctional. A paucity of long simple-sequence repeats and retroelements is consistent with emerging rules of chicken genomics, and a pictorial analysis of the "genomic signature" of this sequence, the first of its kind for birds, bears strong similarity to mammalian signatures, suggesting common higher-order structures in these homeothermic genomes. The house finch sequence is among a very few of its kind from nonmodel vertebrates and provides insight into the evolution of the avian Mhc and of avian genomes generally.

Specific immunoglobulin E to peanut, hazelnut and brazil nut in 731 patients: similar patterns found at all ages.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have reported reactions to an increasing range of nuts as patients with nut allergy grow older. Most patients with symptoms suggesting nut allergy have specific IgE to more than one nut. Furthermore, fatal reactions have followed eating nuts different from any causing the deceased's previous reactions. OBJECTIVE: To explore the pattern of specific IgE to three distantly related nuts in patients of all ages with nut allergy. METHODS: This study includes all patients referred to our laboratory for nut allergy testing from January 1994 to August 1998 who were tested for peanut, hazelnut and brazil nut, and had specific IgE to at least one of these nuts. All tests were performed using the Pharmacia Unicap system. RESULTS: Seven hundred and thirty-one patients (age 7 months to 65 years, median 6.6 years) had specific IgE >0.35 kU(A)/L to at least one of these three nuts: 282 had IgE to one nut, 130 to two nuts, and 319 to all three nuts. When analysed by gender and age quartile, very similar patterns were found in all subgroups though significant age trends and age interactions were found for IgE to individual nuts and combinations of nuts. CONCLUSIONS: The probability of a patient with nut allergy having specific IgE to a particular combination of peanut, hazelnut and brazil nut is similar, whatever their age or sex. The apparent increase in multiple nut reactivity with increasing age may therefore be due to exposure of previously unchallenged sensitivity. The frequency of multiple-nut specificity is sufficiently high that patients should always be tested for allergy to a range on nuts if they have a history of reacting to any nut.

Antigenic comparisons of hog cholera virus isolates from Europe, America and Asia using monoclonal antibodies.

Nineteen monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) with specificity for hog cholera virus (HCV) were prepared. They were used in an immune binding (peroxidase linked) assay to determine the reaction patterns of HCV isolates from Europe, Brazil, USA, Japan and Malaysia, as well as laboratory reference strains of the virus. A further panel of 17 MAbs raised against bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) was included in the study, together with 5 MAbs raised against a non-HCV pestivirus of porcine origin. All the MAbs were also tested against representative strains of BVDV and border disease virus. Six MAbs were HCV-specific, reacting with all isolates of HCV and none of the ruminant viruses. Among the other HCV MAbs geographical variation in reaction patterns was observed. There was evidence of antigenic distinction between recent European isolates, and archive material originally isolated more than 10 years ago.

Mastitis survey in Bolivia.

Quarter milk samples were taken from 1,090 cows on 24 dairy farms in southeastern Bolivia. Nineteen per cent were positive in the milk quality test for subclinical mastitis, 12% for presence of potentially pathogenic bacteria and 4% for both. The prevalence of infection was related to management factors.

Accessory atrioventricular pathway in an infant: prediction of location with body surface maps and ablation with cryosurgery.

A 10-month-old infant with multiple muscular ventricular septal defects, congestive heart failure, Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome, and supraventricular tachycardia is presented. The site of ventricular pre-excitation was predicted by analysis of ST-T wave isopotential body surface maps to be in the posterior free wall of the right ventricle. The site was confirmed by epicardial mapping of the ventricles during surgery. The pathyway was cryoblated and the ventricular defects were closed. The patient has been free of pre-excitation and supraventricular tachycardia for over two years since surgery.