External validation of vaginal birth after cesarean delivery calculator in Israeli cohort of parturients and construction of an improved model.

OBJECTIVE: To validate the Maternal Fetal Medicine Unit's (MFMU) vaginal birth after cesarean delivery (VBAC) calculator in an Israeli cohort, and to detect other variables associated with VBAC and construct an improved VBAC calculator. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was performed at a single university-affiliated medical center. Women carrying a singleton, term, cephalic-presenting fetus, with previous one low transverse cesarean delivery who opted for trial of VBAC were included. Demographic and obstetric characteristics were incorporated into the MFMU's calculator, to predict probabilities of VBAC and compare prediction performance with the original publication utilizing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) statistics. Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate other variables and construct an improved model for success of VBAC. RESULTS: Of 490 parturients, 396 (80.8%) had a successful vaginal delivery. Compared to the original publication, the MFMU's calculator underperformed: area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.709 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.652-0.766, P < 0.001). Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and overall accuracy were 67.42%, 65.96%, 89.30%, 32.46%, and 32.46%, respectively. An improved model that included previous VBAC, prior vaginal delivery, spontaneous onset of delivery, and maternal diabetes resulted in improved prediction performance with an AUC of 0.771 (95% CI 0.723-0.82, P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: MFMU's VBAC calculator needs to be validated in different populations before implementation.

The effectiveness of an outdoor adventure programme for young children with autism spectrum disorder: a controlled study.

AIM: Outdoor adventure programmes aim to improve interpersonal relationships using adventurous activities. The current study examined the effectiveness of an outdoor adventure programme in children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). METHOD: The study included 51 participants (40 males, 11 females; age 3y 4mo-7y 4mo) enrolled in ASD special education kindergartens. Only the intervention group (n=30) participated in the outdoor adventure programme for 13 weeks, completing challenging physical activities that required cooperation and communication with peers and instructors. The control group (n=21) was not significantly different from the research group in age, sex, cognitive, and adaptive behaviour measures. RESULTS: Outcomes after the intervention revealed significant improvement in social-communication and different directions in the two groups in the social cognition, social motivation, and autistic mannerisms subdomains of the Social Responsiveness Scale. While the group that received an outdoor adventure programme showed a tendency toward a reduction in severity, the control group showed the opposite (p<0.010). INTERPRETATION: The outdoor adventure programme required problem-solving skills and forced the child to communicate in exciting situations. This study suggests that an outdoor adventure programme may be an effective intervention in addition to traditional treatments in young children with ASD. Future studies should examine the outcome of outdoor adventure programmes delivered for longer periods of time and maintenance of the achievements over time.