Model of the long-term transport and accumulation of radionuclides in future landscapes.

Assessments of radiological impacts on humans and other biota from potential releases to the biosphere from a deep geologic repository for spent nuclear fuel are associated with several challenges. Releases, if any, will likely occur in a far future and to an environment that will have experienced substantial transformations. Such releases would occur over very long periods during which environmental conditions will vary continuously due to climate change and ecosystem succession. Assessments of radiological impacts must therefore be based on simulations using models that can describe the transport and accumulation of radionuclides for a large variety of environmental conditions. In this paper we describe such a model and show examples of its application in a safety assessment, taking into account results from sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the model predictions.

Modeling the long-term transport and accumulation of radionuclides in the landscape for derivation of dose conversion factors.

To evaluate the radiological impact of potential releases to the biosphere from a geological repository for spent nuclear fuel, it is necessary to assess the long-term dynamics of the distribution of radionuclides in the environment. In this paper, we propose an approach for making prognoses of the distribution and fluxes of radionuclides released from the geosphere, in discharges of contaminated groundwater, to an evolving landscape. The biosphere changes during the temperate part (spanning approximately 20,000 years) of an interglacial period are handled by building biosphere models for the projected succession of situations. Radionuclide transport in the landscape is modeled dynamically with a series of interconnected radioecological models of those ecosystem types (sea, lake, running water, mire, agricultural land and forest) that occur at present, and are projected to occur in the future, in a candidate area for a geological repository in Sweden. The transformation between ecosystems is modeled as discrete events occurring every thousand years by substituting one model by another. Examples of predictions of the radionuclide distribution in the landscape are presented for several scenarios with discharge locations varying in time and space. The article also outlines an approach for estimating the exposure of man resulting from all possible reasonable uses of a potentially contaminated landscape, which was used for derivation of Landscape Dose Factors.