Epidemiological impact of public health interventions against diabetes in Qatar: mathematical modeling analyses.

Aims: To predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris. Methods: A deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20-79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status. Results: All intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and ≥35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8-46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively. Conclusions: Implementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar.

Assessment of Overweight, Obesity, Central Obesity, and Type 2 Diabetes among Adolescents in Qatar: A Cross-Sectional Study.

Qatar has a high obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden. This study aimed to (1) determine the prevalence of overweight, obesity, and T2DM in 13-17-year-old adolescents and (2) evaluate associations with adolescents' lifestyle and breastfeeding history, parental weight, and familial T2DM history. A cross-sectional study (double-stage cluster sampling) was conducted in 2018-2020 using a self-administered parental and adolescent questionnaire. In the results, 23.4% of the adolescents (107/459) were overweight; 19.9% (91/459) were obese; and 37.6% (171/459) had evidence of central obesity. Random blood sugar (RBS) was suggestive of prediabetes (≥140 mg/dL) for 23 (5.0%) adolescents and T2DM (≥200 mg/dL) for none. In multivariable analysis, obesity was significantly associated with no breastfeeding (OR = 3.17, 95% CI: 1.09-9.26) compared to breastfed adolescents for ≥6 months, with first-degree family history of T2DM (OR = 2.27; 95% CI: 1.22-4.27), with maternal obesity (OR = 2.40; 95% CI: 1.01-5.70), and with acanthosis nigricans in adolescents (OR = 19.8; 95% CI: 8.38-46.9). Central obesity was significantly associated with maternal obesity (OR = 2.21; 95% CI: 1.14-4.27) and with acanthosis nigricans (OR = 3.67; 95% CI: 1.88-7.18). Acanthosis nigricans (OR = 4.06; 95% CI: 1.41-11.7) was the only factor associated with elevated RBS. Addressing future disease burden among adults in Qatar will require extensive health and well-being programs, focused on healthy lifestyles and behaviors such as nutritious diets, physical activity, stress management, and self-care.

A diabetes risk score for Qatar utilizing a novel mathematical modeling approach to identify individuals at high risk for diabetes.

We developed a diabetes risk score using a novel analytical approach and tested its diagnostic performance to detect individuals at high risk of diabetes, by applying it to the Qatari population. A representative random sample of 5,000 Qataris selected at different time points was simulated using a diabetes mathematical model. Logistic regression was used to derive the score using age, sex, obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity as predictive variables. Performance diagnostics, validity, and potential yields of a diabetes testing program were evaluated. In 2020, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.79 and sensitivity and specificity were 79.0% and 66.8%, respectively. Positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were 36.1% and 93.0%, with 42.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2030, projected AUC was 0.78 and sensitivity and specificity were 77.5% and 65.8%. PPV and NPV were 36.8% and 92.0%, with 43.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. In 2050, AUC was 0.76 and sensitivity and specificity were 74.4% and 64.5%. PPV and NPV were 40.4% and 88.7%, with 45.0% of Qataris being at high diabetes risk. This model-based score demonstrated comparable performance to a data-derived score. The derived self-complete risk score provides an effective tool for initial diabetes screening, and for targeted lifestyle counselling and prevention programs.

Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to estimate the impact of reducing the prevalence of obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity, and introducing physical activity as an explicit intervention, on the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using Qatar as an example. METHODS: A population-level mathematical model was adapted and expanded. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status, and parameterized by nationally representative data. Modeled interventions were introduced in 2016, reached targeted level by 2031, and then maintained up to 2050. Diverse intervention scenarios were assessed and compared with a counter-factual no intervention baseline scenario. RESULTS: T2DM prevalence increased from 16.7% in 2016 to 24.0% in 2050 in the baseline scenario. By 2050, through halting the rise or reducing obesity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 7.8-33.7%, incidence by 8.4-38.9%, and related deaths by 2.1-13.2%. For smoking, through halting the rise or reducing smoking prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-2.8%, incidence by 0.5-3.2%, and related deaths by 0.1-0.7%. For physical inactivity, through halting the rise or reducing physical inactivity prevalence by 10-50%, T2DM prevalence was reduced by 0.5-6.9%, incidence by 0.5-7.9%, and related deaths by 0.2-2.8%. Introduction of physical activity with varying intensity at 25% coverage reduced T2DM prevalence by 3.3-9.2%, incidence by 4.2-11.5%, and related deaths by 1.9-5.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Major reductions in T2DM incidence could be accomplished by reducing obesity, while modest reductions could be accomplished by reducing smoking and physical inactivity, or by introducing physical activity as an intervention.

Adolescent prediabetes in a high-risk Middle East country: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the prevalence of prediabetes in adolescents living in a high-risk country and to detect risk factors associated with this disorder. DESIGN: Survey questionnaire combined with physical measurements and blood sugar determination. SETTING: Doha, capital city of Qatar. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1694 male and female students aged 11-18 years without previously diagnosed diabetes enrolled in four schools. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Blood sugar measurements. Other measured variables included gender, height, weight, abdominal circumference, country of origin, family history of diabetes and frequency of exercise. RESULTS: Using a random blood sugar ≥7.8 mmol/L or a fasting blood sugar ≥5.5 mmol/L as cutpoints, we identified 4.2% of students (56 boys, 15 girls) as probable prediabetics. In a multivariate model, being boys (OR 3.2, 95% CI 1.7-6.2), having a diabetic parent (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.1-3.2) or having a waist-to-height ratio >0.5 (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1-3.0) were significantly associated with being a prediabetic. The parental origin of diabetes had a differential effect upon blood sugar. The mean random blood sugar in students with a maternal inheritance pattern of diabetes was 5.61 mmol/L ± 1.0, compared to 5.39 mmol/L ± 0.89 in students with a paternal inheritance pattern (p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: In a country with a high risk of adult diabetes, we identified 4.2% of students aged 11-18 as being prediabetic. Risk factors associated with prediabetes included male gender, family history of diabetes and waist-to-height ratio >0.5.