Developing a mortality risk prediction model using data of 3663 hospitalized COVID-19 patients: a retrospective cohort study in an Egyptian University Hospital.

PURPOSE: Since the declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic, a wide between-country variation was observed regarding in-hospital mortality and its predictors. Given the scarcity of local research and the need to prioritize the provision of care, this study was conducted aiming to measure the incidence of in-hospital COVID-19 mortality and to develop a simple and clinically applicable model for its prediction. METHODS: COVID-19-confirmed patients admitted to the designated isolation areas of Ain-Shams University Hospitals (April 2020-February 2021) were included in this retrospective cohort study (n = 3663). Data were retrieved from patients' records. Kaplan-Meier survival and Cox proportional hazard regression were used. Binary logistic regression was used for creating mortality prediction models. RESULTS: Patients were 53.6% males, 4.6% current smokers, and their median age was 58 (IQR 41-68) years. Admission to intensive care units was 41.1% and mortality was 26.5% (972/3663, 95% CI 25.1-28.0%). Independent mortality predictors-with rapid mortality onset-were age ≥ 75 years, patients' admission in critical condition, and being symptomatic. Current smoking and presence of comorbidities particularly, obesity, malignancy, and chronic haematological disorders predicted mortality too. Some biomarkers were also recognized. Two prediction models exhibited the best performance: a basic model including age, presence/absence of comorbidities, and the severity level of the condition on admission (Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) = 0.832, 95% CI 0.816-0.847) and another model with added International Normalized Ratio (INR) value (AUC = 0.842, 95% CI 0.812-0.873). CONCLUSION: Patients with the identified mortality risk factors are to be prioritized for preventive and rapid treatment measures. With the provided prediction models, clinicians can calculate mortality probability for their patients. Presenting multiple and very generic models can enable clinicians to choose the one containing the parameters available in their specific clinical setting, and also to test the applicability of such models in a non-COVID-19 respiratory infection.

Assessment of lacrimal glands in thyroid eye disease with diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging.

PURPOSE: To assess the lacrimal glands in patients with thyroid eye disease with diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This study was carried out on 44 consecutive patients (17 males, 27 females, with mean age 36 years) with thyroid eye disease and 20 age- and sex-matched volunteers. They underwent diffusion-weighted MR imaging of the orbit. The apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values of the lacrimal glands were calculated and correlated with the clinical activity score (CAS). RESULTS: The mean ADC of lacrimal glands in thyroid eye disease (1.73 × 10-3 mm2/s) was significantly higher (p = 0.001) than that of volunteers (1.52 × 10-3 mm2/s). The cutoff ADC value of lacrimal gland used for differentiation of thyroid eye disease from volunteers was 1.62 × 10-3 mm2/s with an area under the curve value of 0.95 and an accuracy of 96%. There was significant difference (p = 0.03) in the ADC of the lacrimal glands in patients with active (n = 24) and inactive (n = 20) disease. The cutoff ADC value of the lacrimal gland used to suspect active disease was 1.76 × 10-3 mm2/s with an area under the curve value of 0.80 and an accuracy of 82%. There was positive correlation between the ADC value of the lacrimal glands and CAS (r = 0.73, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The ADC of the lacrimal glands is a non-invasive imaging parameter that can be used for diagnosis of thyroid eye disease and to predict the active form of the disease.

Performance of apparent diffusion coefficient of medial and lateral rectus muscles in Graves' orbitopathy.

Objective The purpose of this study was to determine the performance of the apparent diffusion coefficient in the detection of involvement of the medial and lateral rectus muscles in patients with Graves' orbitopathy. Methods and materials This prospective study was conducted on 33 consecutive patients (16 males, 17 females with a mean age of 36 years) with Graves' orbitopathy and 18 age- and sex-matched volunteers. The patients and volunteers underwent diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging of the orbit in the axial plane using echo-planar imaging. The apparent diffusion coefficient of the medial and lateral rectus muscles was calculated. Results The medial rectus muscle was more affected than the lateral rectus muscle. The mean apparent diffusion coefficient value of the medial and lateral rectus muscles was 1.81 ± 0.19 and 1.72 ± 0.07 × 10-3 mm2/s in patients with Graves' orbitopathy and 1.59 ± 0.06 and 1.51 ± 0.06 × 10-3 mm2/s in volunteers, respectively. There was a significant difference in apparent diffusion coefficient values of the medial and lateral rectus muscles between patients with Graves' orbitopathy and volunteers ( p = 0.001). The classification performance as measured with area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.89 (95% confidence interval: 0.732-0.904). The best performing threshold of the apparent diffusion coefficient value of the medial rectus muscle was 1.69 × 10-3 mm2/s and associated efficiency was 86%, sensitivity was 97%, and specificity was 97%. Conclusion We concluded that the apparent diffusion coefficient of the medial rectus muscle can be used for diagnosis of Graves' orbitopathy.

Role of Diffusion-Weighted Magnetic Resonance (MR) Imaging in Differentiation Between Graves' Disease and Painless Thyroiditis.

BACKGROUND: To assess the role of diffusion-weighted MR imaging in differentiation between Graves' disease and painless thyroiditis. MATERIAL/METHODS: A prospective study was conducted among 37 consecutive patients with untreated thyrotoxicosis (25 female and 12 male; mean age of 44 years) and 15 ageand sex-matched controls. Diffusion-weighted MR imaging of the thyroid gland was performed in patients and controls. The apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) value of the thyroid gland was calculated and correlated with Tc-99m uptake and thyroid function tests of the patients. RESULTS: There was a significant difference in the ADC value of the thyroid gland between patients and the control group (P=0.001). The mean ADC value of the thyroid gland in Graves' disease was 2.03±0.28×10-3 mm2/sec, and in patients with painless thyroiditis 1.46±0.22×10-3 mm2/sec, respectively. There was a significant difference in the ADC values between Graves' disease and painless thyroiditis (P=0.001). When the ADC value of 1.45×10-3 mm2/sec was used as a threshold value for differentiating Graves' disease from painless thyroiditis, the best result was obtained with area under the curve of 0.934, accuracy of 83.8%, sensitivity of 95.8%, and specificity of 61.5%. The mean ADC value of the thyroid gland in patients positively correlated with serum TRAb and Tc-99m uptake (r=0.57, P=0.001 and r=0.74, P=0.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We concluded that ADC values of the thyroid gland can be used to differentiate Graves' disease from painless thyroiditis in patients with untreated thyrotoxicosis.