Comparing Precision Machine Learning With Consumer, Quality, and Volume Metrics for Ranking Orthopedic Surgery Hospitals: Retrospective Study.

BACKGROUND: Patients' choices of providers when undergoing elective surgeries significantly impact both perioperative outcomes and costs. There exist a variety of approaches that are available to patients for evaluating between different hospital choices. OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to compare differences in outcomes and costs between hospitals ranked using popular internet-based consumer ratings, quality stars, reputation rankings, average volumes, average outcomes, and precision machine learning-based rankings for hospital settings performing hip replacements in a large metropolitan area. METHODS: Retrospective data from 4192 hip replacement surgeries among Medicare beneficiaries in 2018 in a the Chicago metropolitan area were analyzed for variations in outcomes (90-day postprocedure hospitalizations and emergency department visits) and costs (90-day total cost of care) between hospitals ranked through multiple approaches: internet-based consumer ratings, quality stars, reputation rankings, average yearly surgical volume, average outcome rates, and machine learning-based rankings. The average rates of outcomes and costs were compared between the patients who underwent surgery at a hospital using each ranking approach in unadjusted and propensity-based adjusted comparisons. RESULTS: Only a minority of patients (1159/4192, 27.6% to 2078/4192, 49.6%) were found to be matched to higher-ranked hospitals for each of the different approaches. Of the approaches considered, hip replacements at hospitals that were more highly ranked by consumer ratings, quality stars, and machine learning were all consistently associated with improvements in outcomes and costs in both adjusted and unadjusted analyses. The improvement was greatest across all metrics and analyses for machine learning-based rankings. CONCLUSIONS: There may be a substantive opportunity to increase the number of patients matched to appropriate hospitals across a broad variety of ranking approaches. Elective hip replacement surgeries performed at hospitals where patients were matched based on patient-specific machine learning were associated with better outcomes and lower total costs of care.

Machine intelligence for early targeted precision management and response to outbreaks of respiratory infections.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the utility of machine learning (ML) for the management of Medicare beneficiaries at risk of severe respiratory infections in community and postacute settings by (1) identifying individuals in a community setting at risk of infections resulting in emergent hospitalization and (2) matching individuals in a postacute setting to skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) that are likely to reduce the risk of infections. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of claims from 2 million Medicare beneficiaries for 2017-2019. METHODS: In the first analysis, the rate of emergent hospitalization due to respiratory infections was measured among beneficiaries predicted by ML to be at highest risk and compared with the overall average for the population. In the second analysis, the rate of emergent hospitalization due to respiratory infections was compared between beneficiaries who went to an SNF with lower predicted risk of infections using ML and beneficiaries who did not. RESULTS: In the community setting, beneficiaries predicted to be at highest risk had significantly increased rates of emergency department visits (13-fold) and hospitalizations (18-fold) due to respiratory infections. In the postacute setting, beneficiaries who received care at top-recommended SNFs had a relative reduction of 37% for emergent care and 36% for inpatient hospitalization due to respiratory infection. CONCLUSIONS: Precision management through personalized and predictive ML offers the opportunity to reduce the burden of outbreaks of respiratory infections. In the community setting, ML can identify vulnerable subpopulations at highest risk of severe infections. In postacute settings, ML can inform patient choices by matching beneficiaries to SNFs likely to reduce future risk.