Geographic and Temporal Patterns in Covid-19 Mortality by Race and Ethnicity in the United States from March 2020 to February 2022

Prior research has established that American Indian, Alaska Native, Black, Hispanic, and Pacific Islander populations in the United States have experienced substantially higher mortality rates from Covid-19 compared to non-Hispanic white residents during the first year of the pandemic. What remains less clear is how mortality rates have changed for each of these racial/ethnic groups during 2021, given the increasing prevalence of vaccination. In particular, it is unknown how these changes in mortality have varied geographically. In this study, we used provisional data from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) to produce age-standardized estimates of Covid-19 mortality by race/ethnicity in the United States from March 2020 to February 2022 in each metro-nonmetro category, Census region, and Census division. We calculated changes in mortality rates between the first and second years of the pandemic and examined mortality changes by month. We found that when Covid-19 first affected a geographic area, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic populations experienced extremely high levels of Covid-19 mortality and racial/ethnic inequity that were not repeated at any other time during the pandemic. Between the first and second year of the pandemic, racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality decreased--but were not eliminated--for Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic AIAN residents. These inequities decreased due to reductions in mortality for these populations alongside increases in non-Hispanic white mortality. Though racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality decreased, substantial inequities still existed in most geographic areas during the pandemics second year: Non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic AIAN, and Hispanic residents reported higher Covid-19 death rates in rural areas than in urban areas, indicating that these communities are facing serious public health challenges. At the same time, the non-Hispanic white mortality rate worsened in rural areas during the second year of the pandemic, suggesting there may be unique factors driving mortality in this population. Finally, vaccination rates were associated with reductions in Covid-19 mortality for Hispanic, non-Hispanic Black, and non-Hispanic white residents, and increased vaccination may have contributed to the decreases in racial/ethnic inequities in Covid-19 mortality observed during the second year of the pandemic. Despite reductions in mortality, Covid-19 mortality remained elevated in nonmetro areas and increased for some racial/ethnic groups, highlighting the need for increased vaccination delivery and equitable public health measures especially in rural communities. Taken together, these findings highlight the continued need to prioritize health equity in the pandemic response and to modify the structures and policies through which systemic racism operates and has generated racial health inequities.

"Pandemic of the unvaccinated"? At midlife, white people are less vaccinated but still at less risk of Covid-19 mortality in Minnesota

IntroductionRecent research underscores the exceptionally young age distribution of Covid-19 deaths in the United States compared with international peers. This brief characterizes how high levels of Covid mortality at midlife ages (45-64) are deeply intertwined with continuing racial inequity in Covid-19 mortality. MethodsMortality data from Minnesota in 2020-2022 were analyzed in June 2022. Death certificate data and published vaccination rates in Minnesota allow vaccination and mortality rates to be observed with greater age and temporal precision than national data. ResultsBlack, Hispanic, and Asian adults under age 65 were all more highly vaccinated than white populations of the same ages during most of Minnesotas substantial and sustained Delta surge and all of the subsequent Omicron surge. However, white mortality rates were lower than those of all other groups. These disparities were extreme; at midlife ages (ages 45-64), during the Omicron period, more highly-vaccinated populations had COVID-19 mortality that was 164% (Asian-American), 115% (Hispanic), or 208% (Black) of white Covid-19 mortality at these ages. In Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) populations as a whole, Covid-19 mortality at ages 55-64 was greater than white mortality at 10 years older. ConclusionsThis discrepancy between vaccination and mortality patterning by race/ethnicity suggests that, if the current period is a "pandemic of the unvaccinated," it also remains a "pandemic of the disadvantaged" in ways that can decouple from vaccination rates. This result implies an urgent need to center health equity in the development of Covid-19 policy measures.

Race-Specific, U.S. State-Specific COVID-19 Vaccination Rates Adjusted for Age

We provide the first age-standardized race/ethnicity-specific, state-specific vaccination rates for the United States, encompassing all states reporting race/ethnicity-specific vaccinations. The data reflect vaccinations through mid-October 2021. We use indirect age standardization to compare racial/ethnic state vaccination rates to national age-specific vaccination patterns. Results show that white and Black state median vaccination rates are, respectively, 89% and 76% of what would be predicted based on age; Hispanic and Native rates are almost identical to what would be predicted; and Asian-American/Pacific Islander rates are 110% of what would be predicted. We also find that racial/ethnic group vaccination rates are associated with state politics, as proxied by 2020 Trump vote share: for each percentage point increase in 2020 Trump vote share, vaccination rates decline by 1.08 percent of what would be predicted based on age. This decline is sharpest for Native American populations, although Native vaccinations are reported for relatively few states.

Geographically-targeted COVID-19 vaccination is more equitable than age-based thresholds alone

COVID-19 mortality increases dramatically with age and is also substantially higher among Black, Indigenous, and People of Color (BIPOC) populations in the United States. These two facts introduce tradeoffs because BIPOC populations are younger than white populations. In analyses of California and Minnesota--demographically divergent states--we show that COVID vaccination schedules based solely on age benefit the older white populations at the expense of younger BIPOC populations with higher risk of death from COVID-19. We find that strategies that prioritize high-risk geographic areas for vaccination at all ages better target mortality risk than age-based strategies alone, although they do not always perform as well as direct prioritization of high-risk racial/ethnic groups. One-sentence summaryAge-based COVID-19 vaccination prioritizes white people above higher-risk others; geographic prioritization improves equity.