Predictors of mortality in Ugandan children with TB, 2016-2021.

BACKGROUND: The burden of pediatric TB is high in Uganda. Our objective was to evaluate predictors of mortality during TB treatment among children at an urban and a rural referral hospital.METHODS: We designed a historical cohort study of TB cases at Mulago National Referral Hospital, Kampala; and Fort Portal Regional Referral Hospital, Fort Portal, Uganda, in children aged <15 years from 2016 to 2021. We used Kaplan-Meier models to estimate survival and fit multivariable Cox regression models to determine mortality hazards during TB treatment.RESULTS: We identified 1,658 children diagnosed with TB from 2016 to 2021. Of 1,623 children with known treatment outcomes, 127/1,623 (7.8%) died during TB treatment, 1,298/1,623 (78.3%) completed treatment, 150/1,623 (9.2%) were lost to follow-up, and two children failed treatment. Using Kaplan-Meier functions, the median time to death was 27 days following treatment initiation. In adjusted Cox models, predictors of mortality included HIV (aHR 1.68, 95% CI 1.01-2.81), moderate malnutrition (aHR 2.22, 95% CI 1.18-4.16), and severe malnutrition (aHR 2.92, 95% CI 1.75-4.87).CONCLUSION: Mortality was high at an urban and a rural referral hospital among children who initiated TB treatment from 2016 to 2021, with the majority of deaths occurring during the intensive phase of TB treatment. Malnutrition and HIV were significant predictors of death during treatment.

Mortality and loss to follow-up among tuberculosis and HIV co-infected patients in rural southwestern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: We describe the presentation and outcome of care among patients with tuberculosis (TB) and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infection from a prospective observational cohort in Uganda. METHODS: We analysed basic demographics, CD4+ counts, time of initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), clinical and haematological parameters and outcome of care of 386 patients enrolled between February 2007 and March 2010. RESULTS: At presentation, 56.7% of the patients were sputum-positive, 89.9% had new TB infection, 62.7% had wasting, 78.7% were anaemic, 72.1% had a CD4+ count of <200 cells/mm(3), 20.2% had pneumonia, 50.3% had oral thrush and 1.3% had Kaposi's sarcoma. Patients developing TB within 3 months of starting ART were less likely to have wasting, to be anaemic or to have a CD4+ count of <100 cells/mm(3). The cure, default and death rates were respectively 54.3%, 24% and 16%. At 8 months, 53 (13.7%) were confirmed dead, 119 (30.8%) were lost to follow-up, 28 (7.3%) were transferred out and 1 (0.3%) had treatment failure. Mortality and loss to follow-up were associated with failure to start ART and having a CD4+ count of <200 cells/mm(3). CONCLUSION: In Uganda, TB-HIV patients present with severe immune suppression and are at increased risk of death and loss to follow-up, particularly those not on ART. There is need for early identification and improved follow-up of TB-HIV co-infected patients.