Quantitative Integrative Survival Prediction in Multiple Myeloma Patients Treated With Bortezomib-Based Induction, High-Dose Therapy and Autologous Stem Cell Transplantation.

PURPOSE: Given the high heterogeneity in survival for patients with multiple myeloma, it would be clinically useful to quantitatively predict the individual survival instead of attributing patients to two to four risk groups as in current models, for example, revised International Staging System (R-ISS), R2-ISS, or Mayo-2022-score. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Our aim was to develop a quantitative prediction tool for individual patient's 3-/5-year overall survival (OS) probability. We integrated established clinical and molecular risk factors into a comprehensive prognostic model and evaluated and validated its risk discrimination capabilities versus R-ISS, R2-ISS, and Mayo-2022-score. RESULTS: A nomogram for estimating OS probabilities was built on the basis of a Cox regression model. It allows one to translate the individual risk profile of a patient into 3-/5-year OS probabilities by attributing points to each prognostic factor and summing up all points. The nomogram was externally validated regarding discrimination and calibration. There was no obvious bias or overfitting of the prognostic index on the validation cohort. Resampling-based and external evaluation showed good calibration. The c-index of the model was similar on the training (0.76) and validation cohort (0.75) and significantly higher than for the R-ISS (P < .001) or R2-ISS (P < .01). CONCLUSION: In summary, we developed and validated individual quantitative nomogram-based OS prediction. Continuous risk assessment integrating molecular prognostic factors is superior to R-ISS, R2-ISS, or Mayo-2022-score alone.

Molecular Long-Term Analysis of the GMMG-HD4 Trial in Multiple Myeloma-Patterns of Association of Chromosomal Aberrations with Response and Proliferation Determining Survival in Selecting Treatments in View of Limited Resources in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.

Based on the lack of differences in progression-free and overall survival after a median follow-up of 93 months in our HOVON-65/GMMG-HD4 trial (German part; n = 395) randomizing VAD induction (vincristin/adriamycin/dexamthasone)/tandem-transplantation/thalidomide-maintenance vs. PAD induction (bortezomib/adriamycin/dexamethasone)/tandem transplantation/bortezomib maintenance, we discern how chromosomal aberrations determine long-term prognosis by different patterns of association with proliferation and treatment-dependent response, whether responses achieved by different regimens are equal regarding prognosis, and whether subpopulations of patients could be defined as treatable without upfront "novel agents" in cases of limited resources, e.g., in low- or middle-income countries. Serum parameters and risk factors were assessed in 395 patients. CD138-purified plasma cells were subjected to fluorescence in situ hybridization (n = 354) and gene expression profiling (n = 204). We found chromosomal aberrations to be associated in four patterns with survival, proliferation, and response: deletion (del) del17p13, del8p21, del13q14, (gain) 1q21+, and translocation t(4;14) (all adverse) associate with higher proliferation. Of these, del17p is associated with an adverse response (pattern 1), and 1q21+, t(4;14), and del13q14 with a treatment-dependent better response (pattern 2). Hyperdiploidy associates with lower proliferation without impacting response or survival (pattern 3). Translocation t(11;14) has no association with survival but a treatment-dependent adverse response (pattern 4). Significantly fewer patients reach a near-complete response or better with "conventional" (VAD) vs. bortezomib-based treatment after induction or high-dose melphalan. These patients, however, show significantly better median progression-free and overall survival. Molecularly, patients responding to the two regimens differ in gene expression, indicating distinct biological properties of the responding myeloma cells. Patients with normal renal function (89.4%), low cytogenetic risk (72.5%), or low proliferation rate (37.9%) neither benefit in progression-free nor overall survival from bortezomib-based upfront treatment. We conclude that response level, the treatment by which it is achieved, and molecular background determine long-term prognosis. Chromosomal aberrations are associated in four patterns with proliferation and treatment-dependent responses. Associations with faster and deeper responses can be deceptive in the case of prognostically adverse aberrations 1q21+ and t(4;14). Far from advocating a return to "outdated" treatments, if resources do not permit state-of-the-art-treatment, normal renal function and/or molecular profiling identifies patient subpopulations doing well without upfront "novel agents".

RNA-sequencing based first choice of treatment and determination of risk in multiple myeloma.

Background: Immunotherapeutic targets in multiple myeloma (MM) have variable expression height and are partly expressed in subfractions of patients only. With increasing numbers of available compounds, strategies for appropriate choice of targets (combinations) are warranted. Simultaneously, risk assessment is advisable as patient's life expectancy varies between months and decades. Methods: We first assess feasibility of RNA-sequencing in a multicenter trial (GMMG-MM5, n=604 patients). Next, we use a clinical routine cohort of untreated symptomatic myeloma patients undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation (n=535, median follow-up (FU) 64 months) to perform RNA-sequencing, gene expression profiling (GEP), and iFISH by ten-probe panel on CD138-purified malignant plasma cells. We subsequently compare target expression to plasma cell precursors, MGUS (n=59), asymptomatic (n=142) and relapsed (n=69) myeloma patients, myeloma cell lines (n=26), and between longitudinal samples (MM vs. relapsed MM). Data are validated using the independent MMRF CoMMpass-cohort (n=767, FU 31 months). Results: RNA-sequencing is feasible in 90.8% of patients (GMMG-MM5). Actionable immune-oncological targets (n=19) can be divided in those expressed in all normal and >99% of MM-patients (CD38, SLAMF7, BCMA, GPRC5D, FCRH5, TACI, CD74, CD44, CD37, CD79B), those with expression loss in subfractions of MM-patients (BAFF-R [81.3%], CD19 [57.9%], CD20 [82.8%], CD22 [28.4%]), aberrantly expressed in MM (NY-ESO1/2 [12%], MUC1 [12.7%], CD30 [4.9%], mutated BRAF V600E/K [2.1%]), and resistance-conveying target-mutations e.g., against part but not all BCMA-directed treatments. Risk is assessable regarding proliferation, translated GEP- (UAMS70-, SKY92-, RS-score) and de novo (LfM-HRS) defined risk scores. LfM-HRS delineates three groups of 40%, 38%, and 22% of patients with 5-year and 12-year survival rates of 84% (49%), 67% (18%), and 32% (0%). R-ISS and RNA-sequencing identify partially overlapping patient populations, with R-ISS missing, e.g., 30% (22/72) of highly proliferative myeloma. Conclusion: RNA-sequencing based assessment of risk and targets for first choice treatment is possible in clinical routine.

MCT1 is a predictive marker for lenalidomide maintenance therapy in multiple myeloma.

Biomarkers that predict response to lenalidomide maintenance therapy in patients with multiple myeloma (MM) have remained elusive. We have shown that immunomodulatory drugs (IMiDs) exert anti-MM activity via destabilization of MCT1 and CD147. In this study, cell samples of 654 patients with MM who received lenalidomide (n = 455), thalidomide (n = 98), or bortezomib (n = 101) maintenance were assessed by gene expression profiling and RNA sequencing, followed by correlation of MCT1 and CD147 expression with data for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Patients with high expression levels of MCT1 showed significantly reduced PFS (31.9 months vs 48.2 months in MCT1high vs MCT1low; P = .03) and OS (75.9 months vs not reached [NR] in MCT1high vs MCT1low; P = .001) in cases with lenalidomide maintenance, whereas MCT1 expression had no significant impact on PFS or OS in cases with bortezomib maintenance. We validated the predictive role of MCT1 for IMiD-based maintenance in an independent cohort of patients who received thalidomide (OS, 83.6 months vs NR in MCT1high vs MCT1low; P = .03). Functional validation showed that MCT1 overexpression in human MM cell lines significantly reduced the efficacy of lenalidomide, whereas no change was observed with bortezomib treatment, either in vitro or in a MM xenograft model. Our findings have established MCT1 expression as a predictive marker for response to lenalidomide-based maintenance in patients with MM.