Leveraging satellite observations to reveal ecological drivers of pest densities across landscapes.

Landscape ecologists have long suggested that pest abundances increase in simplified, monoculture landscapes. However, tests of this theory often fail to predict pest population sizes in real-world agricultural fields. These failures may arise not only from variation in pest ecology, but also from the widespread use of categorical land-use maps that do not adequately characterize habitat-availability for pests. We used 1163 field-year observations of Lygus hesperus (Western Tarnished Plant Bug) densities in California cotton fields to determine whether integrating remotely-sensed metrics of vegetation productivity and phenology into pest models could improve pest abundance analysis and prediction. Because L. hesperus often overwinters in non-crop vegetation, we predicted that pest abundances would peak on farms surrounded by more non-crop vegetation, especially when the non-crop vegetation is initially productive but then dries down early in the year, causing the pest to disperse into cotton fields. We found that the effect of non-crop habitat on pest densities varied across latitudes, with a positive relationship in the north and a negative one in the south. Aligning with our hypotheses, models predicted that L. hesperus densities were 35 times higher on farms surrounded by high versus low productivity non-crop vegetation (EVI area 350 vs. 50) and 2.8 times higher when dormancy occurred earlier versus later in the year (May 15 vs. June 30). Despite these strong and significant effects, we found that integrating these remote-sensing variables into land-use models only marginally improved pest density predictions in cotton compared to models with categorical land cover metrics alone. Together, our work suggests that the remote sensing variables analyzed here can advance our understanding of pest ecology, but not yet substantively increase the accuracy of pest abundance predictions.

Cold winters drive consistent and spatially synchronous 8-year population cycles of cabbage stem flea beetle.

Population cycles have been observed in mammals as well as insects, but consistent population cycling has rarely been documented in agroecosystems and never for a beetle. We analysed the long-term population patterns of the cabbage stem flea beetle Psylliodes chrysocephala in winter oilseed rape over 50 years. Psylliodes chrysocephala larval density from 3045 winter oilseed rape fields in southern Sweden showed strong 8-year population cycles in regional mean density. Fluctuations in larval density were synchronous over time across five subregional populations. Subregional mean environmental variables explained 90.6% of the synchrony in P. chrysocephala populations at the 7-11 year time-scale. The number of days below -10°C showed strong anti-phase coherence with larval densities in the 7-11 year time-scale, such that more cold days resulted in low larval densities. High levels of the North Atlantic Oscillation weather system are coherent and anti-phase with cold weather in Scania, Sweden. At the field-scale, later crop planting date and more cold winter days were associated with decreased overwintering larval density. Warmer autumn temperatures, resulting in greater larval accumulated degree days early in the season, increased overwintering larval density. Despite variation in environmental conditions and crop management, 8-year cycles persisted for cabbage stem flea beetle throughout the 50 years of data collection. Moran effects, influenced by the North Atlantic Oscillation weather patterns, are the primary drivers of this cycle and synchronicity. Insect pest data collected in commercial agriculture fields is an abundant source of long-term data. We show that an agricultural pest can have the same periodic population cycles observed in perennial and unmanaged ecosystems. This unexpected finding has implications for sustainable pest management in agriculture and shows the value of long-term pest monitoring projects as an additional source of time-series data to untangle the drivers of population cycles.

Sources of Variation in the Adult Flight of Walnut Husk Fly (Diptera: Tephritidae): A Phenology Model for California Walnut Orchards.

A phenology model of the walnut husk fly, Rhagoletis completa Cresson, was developed to more accurately predict the timing of the flight period and optimize management decisions. A data set of 153 orchard years in which adults were trapped throughout the season was used for the development and validation of this model. Data from California Irrigation Management Information System (CIMIS) weather stations were used to match orchard-year datasets with historical climatic data on degree-day (DD) accumulation, winter chill, and winter rainfall. A cumulative Weibull distribution was used to model the relationship between cumulative trap catch and DD accumulation for R. completa in California. The model was used to predict thermal requirements for the start (5% cumulative trap catch) and mid-point (50% cumulative trap catch) of the flight period, which were 1,670 and 2,179 DDs, respectively. The prediction for 50% cumulative trap catch of R. completa in California was much higher than the thermal requirement estimated in Oregon previously (1,751 DDs). Linear mixed effects models were used to evaluate other environmental and orchard-specific factors which could explain the large variation between predicted and observed thermal requirements for both the start and mid-point of the flight period. Latitude, walnut cultivar leaf-out time, orchard age and year, as a continuous variable, all contributed significantly to explain deviations from the predictions of the DD model for individual orchard years. Such factors can be used both to adjust predicted thermal requirements for these two specific and informative stages of the flight period, and to provide a basis for ecological and evolutionary hypotheses.