RESUMO
It is commonly asserted that agricultural production systems must use fewer antibiotics in food-producing animals in order to mitigate the global spread of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). In order to assess the cost-effectiveness of such interventions, especially given the potential trade-off with rural livelihoods, we must quantify more precisely the relationship between food-producing animal antimicrobial use and AMR in humans. Here, we outline and compare methods that can be used to estimate this relationship, calling on key literature in this area. Mechanistic mathematical models have the advantage of being rooted in epidemiological theory, but may struggle to capture relevant non-epidemiological covariates which have an uncertain relationship with human AMR. We advocate greater use of panel regression models which can incorporate these factors in a flexible way, capturing both shape and scale variation. We provide recommendations for future panel regression studies to follow in order to inform cost-effectiveness analyses of AMR containment interventions across the One Health spectrum, which will be key in the age of increasing AMR.
RESUMO
Adults with Down Syndrome (DS) are at higher risk for severe outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) than the general population, but evidence is required to understand the risks for children with DS, which is necessary to inform COVID-19 shielding advice and vaccination priorities. We aimed to determine the epidemiological and clinical characteristics of COVID-19 in children with DS. Using data from an international survey obtained from a range of countries and control data from the United States, we compared the prevalence of symptoms and medical complications and risk factors for severe outcomes between DS and non-DS paediatric populations with COVID-19. Hospitalised COVID-19 patients <18 years with DS had a higher incidence of respiratory symptoms, fever, and several medical complications from COVID-19 than control patients without DS <18 years. Older age, obesity, and epilepsy were significant risk factors for hospitalisation among paediatric COVID-19 patients with DS, and age and thyroid disorder were significant risk factors for acute respiratory distress syndrome. Mortality rates were low in all paediatric COVID-19 patients (with and without DS), contrasting with previous findings in adults with DS (who exhibit higher mortality than those without DS). Children with DS are at increased risk for more severe presentations of COVID-19. Efforts should be made to ensure the comprehensive and early detection of COVID-19 in this population and to identify children with DS who present comorbidities that pose a risk for a severe course of COVID-19. Our results emphasize the importance of vaccinating children with DS as soon as they become eligible.
RESUMO
Purpose: The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic was one of the most severe public health emergencies in modern times. The economic impact of epidemics has mostly been analysed at the macroeconomic level. Conversely, we aimed to estimate the economic costs of preventive measures of the epidemic to an extractive firm, ArcelorMittal (AM), using data in the epidemic region from March 2014 to December 2015. AM is the world's largest steel producer and is particularly important in West Africa, where the extractive industry is economically crucial. Methods: Qualitative methods, in-depth interviews (IDIs) and focus group discussions (FGDs), were used to investigate the events and channels of impact of the epidemic on the firm, as perceived by employees and contractors. Quantitative data regarding these costs were also collected. Retrospective cost analysis estimated the actual cost of preventive methods adopted. Results: Most respondents indicated the largest cost impact was suspension of the Phase II expansion, a series of projects designed to increase iron ore production in Liberia. The next largest cost was the preventive measures adopted to counter disease spread. Total costs incurred for adopting preventive measures were USD 10.58-11.11 million. The overall direct costs of preventive measures adopted within the fence, meaning within the physical boundary of the firm's sites, shared 30-31% of the total costs incurred. The share of external donations supporting humanitarian response was 11-12% of the total costs, followed by 7-12% of relational costs. Conclusions: The firm's response during the EVD epidemic focussed on its employees and operations, which was later expanded to the wider community and then in supporting the international humanitarian response.
