Heavy vs Light Smoking: Its Association with Opioid Use, Chronic Pain, and Mental Health.

INTRODUCTION: There is much concern that substance use treatment programs are rarely integrated with smoking cessation programs. Here, the first national statistics are presented on the connection between heavy vs. light smoking and the opioid epidemic. METHODS: Using the 2013-2021 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey linked to the National Health Interview Survey, N=81,400 adults-years, logit regressions estimate the impact of heavy vs. light smoking on opioid use, chronic pain, work limitations due to pain, and poor mental health. Analyses were conducted from October 2023 -May 2024. RESULTS: Only 37 percent of the population has ever smoked, but they used 69% of the nation's annual prescription opioids. Adults who smoked more than five cigarettes a day composed 12% of the population but used about the same number of opioids as the 63% of the population who never smoked. Adults who formerly smoked used 16% fewer opioids than adults who currently smoke (p<.01). The percent with chronic pain during the year varied from 12.2% for adults who never smoked to 14.2% for light smoking, to 16.5% for those smoking more than a pack a day (p<.01). Severe work limitations due to pain varied from 7.3% for adults who never smoked to 16.9% for those smoking more than a pack a day (p<.01). Adults smoking more than a pack a day were twice as likely to report fair or poor mental health compared to those who never smoked (29.2% vs. 13.6%) (p<.01). CONCLUSIONS: As nations deal with the opioid epidemic, integrating smoking cessation programs into substance abuse treatment programs appears prudent. FUNDING: AHRQ.

Racial and ethnic disparities in healthcare costs and outcomes of cigarette smoking in USA: 2008-2019.

BACKGROUND: In 2023, President Biden issued an executive order requiring cost-benefit analyses for new regulations to account for distributional effects. To inform new tobacco regulations, we estimate for the first time racial and ethnic disparities in spending and outcomes associated with smoking. METHODS: With the 2008-2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey linked to the National Health Interview Survey, n=118 084 adults-years, logit models estimate the per cent of the top 10 health conditions attributable to smoking. Two-part regression models estimate the share of and total annual healthcare spending attributable to smoking. RESULTS: White adults had higher ever-smoked rates, but minority smoking adults had twice as much of their annual medical spending associated with smoking than white smoking adults, 25% vs 12% (p<0.01). minority adults who smoked had 41% (p<0.05) higher risks of multiple chronic conditions associated with smoking than white adults. While the share of white smoking adults trying to quit declined to 53% in 2019, this desire increased to 63% for minorities. From 2008-2016, smoking comprised 7.5% of the nation's spending for white adults and 10.7% for minorities (p<0.05). In 2017-2019, this declined to 2.5% of the nation's spending for white adults and 8.9% for minorities (p<0.05). For any new antitobacco regulation, the cost savings would be $134 million per year for every 100 000 minorities averted from initiating smoking, 135% more than the $57 million saved annually for 100 000 white adults averted. IMPLICATIONS: Minority adults may benefit substantially more from antitobacco regulations and past federal cost-benefit analyses would have overlooked this.

Complications, Adverse Drug Events, High Costs, and Disparities in Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome in Children vs COVID-19.

Importance: Multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) causes severe inflammation of multiple organ systems after SARS-CoV-2 infection. During the pandemic, surveillance reporting of MIS-C was voluntary, with likely underreporting. For a rare syndrome like MIS-C, numerous data are needed to explore the disease in greater detail. Objective: To use large all-payer billing data and the new International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems, Tenth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-10-CM) code for MIS-C to compare outcomes across MIS-C and COVID-19 over all 4057 hospitals in 31 states. Design, Setting, and Participants: A retrospective cross-sectional study of all COVID-19 and MIS-C hospitalizations in individuals younger than 21 years from 31 states was conducted, using Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality 2021 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project data. Analyses were conducted from February 1 to October 20, 2022. Main Outcomes and Measures: Fifty complications, adverse medication events, costs, and the Social Vulnerability Index. Results: There were 4107 individuals with MIS-C (median age, 9 [IQR, 5-13] years; 2443 [59.5%] male; 1384 [38.1%] White) and 23 686 individuals with COVID-19 without MIS-C (median age, 15 [IQR, 5-18] years; 12 878 [54.4%] female; 4605 [44.1%] White), with 1.48 (95% CI, 1.35-1.62) MIS-C hospitalizations per 100 000 children per month, ranging from 0.97 hospitalizations per 100 children for White and 1.99 hospitalizations per 100 children for Black children. Outcomes worsened as the number of organ system dysfunctions increased from 2 to 8 organs. Deaths associated with MIS-C increased from less than 1% to 5.8% (95% CI, 3.3%-8.4%) and from less than 1% to 17.2% (95% CI, 11.7%-22.7%) for COVID-19 (P = .001). Adverse medication events associated with MIS-C increased from 4.9% (95% CI, 3.8%-6.0%) to 17.8% (95% CI, 13.7%-22.0%) and from 1.2% (95% CI, 1.0%-1.3%) to 13.4% (95% CI, 8.4%-18.3%) for COVID-19. The median length of stay for MIS-C increased from 4 (IQR, 2-5) to 8 (IQR, 5-12) days and from 3 (IQR, 2-5) to 16 (IQR, 7-23) days for COVID-19. Median costs for MIS-C increased from $16 225 (IQR, $9244-$26 822) to $53 359 (IQR, $35 920-$86 882) and from $6474 (IQR, $3741-$12 103) to $98 643 (IQR, $30 675-$204 956) for COVID-19. The percentage of MIS-C cases that were in Black children doubled from 16.2% to 31.7% (P = .001) as organ dysfunction increased, remaining unchanged with COVID-19. Hospital stays for MIS-C increased by 1 day (P = .01) for Black patients compared with White patients, with Black patients moving from the bottom to top quartile of socioeconomic vulnerability, with no disparity with COVID-19. Conclusions and Relevance: In this cross-sectional study, MIS-C was more common and severe than previously reported, with more racial disparities in outcomes than were seen in patients with COVID-19. The findings of this study suggest that relying on mean outcomes for MIS-C from past studies can be misleading, since outcomes and disparities varied widely with the number of multiorgan dysfunctions.

Racial Disparities in the Perceived Risk of COVID-19 and in Getting Needed Medical Care.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic disproportionately affected minorities in population rates of infection, hospitalization, and mortality. However, little is known about the broader racial disparities in fears and perceptions about the pandemic and getting treated. OBJECTIVE: To examine disparities in perceived risks of COVID-19 and getting medical care. METHODS: Using the nationally representative Stanford University School of Medicine Coronavirus Attitudes and Behaviors Survey fielded in May of 2020, we examine racial and ethnic disparities in eight measures on the perceived risks of COVID-19. We use regression analysis to risk adjust perceptions controlling for 10 socioeconomic, demographic, and health variables. RESULTS: Black respondents were 15 percentage points more likely than White respondents to believe the pandemic would not end by Summer 2020 (92% vs 77%, p < .01), and were 19 percentage points more likely than any other race to feel a need to protect their family from COVID-19 (81% vs 62%, p < .01). Latinx respondents were 10 percentage points more fearful than White respondents of catching COVID-19 in public places (55% vs 45%, p < 0.01). Black respondents were 20 percentage points more likely than White respondents to think they would need medical care if infected (71% vs 51%, p < .01), and 18 percentage points more likely to think they would need to be hospitalized (59% vs 41%, p < .01). The proportion of Black respondents believing that the hospital would not have enough capacity to treat them if infected with COVID-19 was 12 percentage points higher than White respondents (41% vs 29%, p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Disparities in the COVID-19-related perceived risks and mistrust in healthcare across racial and ethnic groups existed at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. As we enter into a post-COVID New Normal, new policies must ensure that the causes of this widespread fear and distrust in the healthcare system are understood and reversed.

How state surprise billing protections increased ED visits, 2007-2018: potential implications for the No Surprises Act.

OBJECTIVES: The No Surprises Act took effect in 2022 and prevents patients from receiving unexpected emergency department (ED) out-of-network physician bills from in-network hospitals and restricts out-of-network co-payments to in-network co-payment levels. By studying similar state bans, we examine whether the large reduction in out-of-pocket payments under bans will have an unintended consequence of an increase in ED visits and spending. STUDY DESIGN: We examine 16 million nonelderly, fully funded, privately insured health maintenance organization (HMO) enrollees between 2007 and 2018 from 15 states with balance billing bans for HMO ED visits and 16 states without bans as the control group. METHODS: Using MarketScan data, we conduct an event study analysis and a difference-in-difference analysis of the impact of state balance billing bans on the probability of an ED visit. We use a 2-part expenditure model to estimate the impact on spending. RESULTS: By analyzing 15 state-level bans, we find that the bans reduced spending per visit by 14% but spurred a demand response, an increase of 3 percentage points in ED visits, which wiped away the cost savings. Based on an ED severity index, these extra ED visits were 9% less urgent than prior to the bans. CONCLUSIONS: We predict that the federal ban will result in $5.1 billion in savings but 3.5 million more ED visits at $4.2 billion in extra spending per year, largely negating expected savings. Health plans must be prepared to manage this spike in ED visits as the No Surprises Act takes effect.

Revisiting the Obesity Paradox in Health Care Expenditures Among Adults With Diabetes.

Recent studies of diabetes suggest an obesity paradox: mortality risk increases with weight in people without diabetes but decreases with weight in people with diabetes. A recent study also reports the paradox more generally with health care utilization. Whether this paradox in health care utilization and spending is causal or instead the result of empirical biases and confounding factors has yet to be examined in detail. This study set out to examine changes in the relationship between BMI and health care expenditures in populations with versus without diabetes, controlling for confounding risk factors. It found that the obesity paradox does not exist and is the result of statistical biases such as confounding and reverse causation. Obesity is not cost-saving for people with diabetes. Thus, insurers and physicians should renew efforts to prevent obesity in people with diabetes.

Opioid and non-opioid analgesic prescribing before and after the CDC's 2016 opioid guideline.

The U.S. has addressed the opioid crisis using a two-front approach: state regulations limiting opioid prescriptions for acute pain patients, and voluntary federal CDC guidelines on shifting chronic pain patients to lower opioid doses and non-opioids. No opioid policy research to date has accounted for this two-pronged approach in their research design. We develop a theory of physician prescribing behavior under this two-pronged incentive structure. Using the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we empirically corroborate the theory: regulations and guidelines have the intended effects of reducing opioid prescriptions for acute and chronic pain, respectively, as well as the predicted unintended effects-income effects cause regulations on acute pain treatment to increase chronic pain opioid prescriptions and the chronic pain treatment guidelines spillover to reduce opioids for acute pain. Moreover, we find that the guidelines worked as intended in terms of the reduced usage, with chronic pain patients shifting to non-opioids and also tapering opioid doses. For those who discontinued opioids under regulations and guidelines, we find no harm in terms of increased work limitations due to pain a year after discontinuing opioids. Finally, we observe an unexplained dichotomy-regulations reduce opioid use by causing fewer new starts, whereas guidelines reduce opioid use by discontinuing current users, with no impact on new starts.

Explaining the obesity paradox in healthcare utilization among people with type 2 diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Several studies of diabetes suggest an obesity paradox: persons without diabetes have an increased risk of death due to obesity, whereas obesity decreases the risk of death for people with diabetes. A recent study finds the same obesity paradox with the number of healthcare visits. Whether empirical biases and confounding lead to this paradox is yet to be determined. OBJECTIVE: To examine changes in the relationship between BMI and number of visits in diabetic vs nondiabetic populations, controlling for confounding risk factors. METHODS: Using adults in the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) from 2008 to 2016, N = 210,317, we examine the proposed relationship using six measures of healthcare visits with zero-inflated negative binomial regressions controlling for age, gender, race/ethnicity, income, education, region, health insurance, chronic conditions, and smoking. We excluded persons with type 1 diabetes and gestational diabetes. RESULTS: We find an obesity paradox among people with diabetes for three measures. That is, relative to people without diabetes, normal weight people with diabetes have more emergency room visits, inpatient, and office-based physician visits than do the obese with diabetes. However, we do not find an obesity paradox in any of the six measures once we exclude smokers and persons ever diagnosed with cancer or cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSION: The obesity paradox does not exist at the utilization level and is due to the presence of statistical biases such as confounding and reverse causation. Physicians should continue to focus on efforts to prevent obesity in patients with diabetes.

The role of electronic health record developers in hospital patient sharing.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether hospital adoption of a new electronic health record (EHR) developer increases patient sharing with hospitals using the same developer. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We extracted data on patients shared with other hospitals for 3076 US nonfederal acute care hospitals from the 2011 to 2016 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Physician Shared Patient Patterns database. We calculated the ratio of patients shared with hospitals outside of the focal hospital's network that use the same EHR developer as the focal hospital, and estimated difference-in-differences models to compare same-developer patient sharing among hospitals that switched to a new developer with those that did not switch developer. RESULTS: Switching to a new EHR developer increased the ratio of patients shared with other hospitals having the same EHR developer by 4.1-19.3%, depending on model specification. The magnitude of this effect varied by EHR developer and was increasing in developer market share. DISCUSSION: Consolidation in the EHR industry has led to higher patient sharing among hospitals with the same EHR developer. Contributing factors could include the growth of developer-based health information exchanges, customizable referral management systems, and provider preferences for easy and reliable data exchange. However, hospital transfers that are significantly influenced by EHR developer could lead to poor patient-provider matches. CONCLUSION: Hospitals' choice of EHR developer impacts the flow of patients across hospitals, which could have both desirable and undesirable effects on patient care. Future research should investigate whether health outcomes decline with greater same-developer patient sharing.

Impact of the 2015 Health Information Technology Certification Edition on Interoperability among Hospitals.

OBJECTIVE: Most nonfederal acute care hospitals use electronic health records (EHRs) certified by the Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology. In 2015, the Office of the National Coordinator for Health Information Technology finalized the 2015 Health IT Certification Edition and adoption by hospitals began in 2016. We examine the impact of the 2015 Edition on rates of interoperable exchange among nonfederal acute hospitals. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The study applies a standard difference-in-differences design and a recently developed fixed effects estimator that relaxes the assumption of treatment effects being constant across groups and time. In the analysis, we identify separate effects of the 2015 Edition for hospitals that switched EHR developers and forecast hospitals' interoperability over 2015 Edition adoption rates. RESULTS: The adoption of the 2015 Edition increased hospitals' rates of interoperable exchange and especially benefited hospitals that switched EHR developers in the post-implementation period. Forecasting results indicate that if all hospitals adopted the 2015 Edition, 53% to 61% of hospitals would engage in interoperable health information exchange compared with the current rate of 46%. DISCUSSION: Hospitals' levels of interoperability have been rising over the last few years. Adoption of newer technology improved hospitals' interoperability and accounts for up to 12% of the rise in interoperability. CONCLUSIONS: Certified technology is one mechanism to ensure providers use recent and safe technologies for interoperable exchange. Adoption of certified EHRs improves the nation's interoperable exchange; however, it has a clear limited effect. Other mechanisms are necessary for achieving comprehensive interoperable exchange.

Patient factors that affect opioid use among adults with and without chronic pain.

BACKGROUND: In recent years, inappropriate use of prescription opioids has become a national crisis. Prescription opioids can be an important tool for managing pain, but excessive dosages or extended use may lead to drug dependence, overdoses and mortality. Since the early 2000s, increased prescribing of opioids has been associated with marked increases in these adverse outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To determine patient characteristics associated with opioid use among adults with and without chronic pain treatment. METHODS: The study is based on a nationally representative sample of civilian noninstitutionalized adults without cancer from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2014-2017). A multinomial logit regression analysis is used. Key patient characteristics are health attitudes. Self-reliant health attitude is agreement with the following statements: "I do not need health insurance," and "I can overcome illness without help from a medically trained person." RESULTS: Health-related attitudes affect both adults with and without chronic pain treatment similarly. Adults with self-reliant health attitudes are less likely to start and more likely to discontinue opioid use. Exercise is associated with higher probability of choosing no analgesic treatments over using opioids. Similarly, among adults who are using opioids for pain treatment, exercise is associated with higher probability of discontinuing opioid use in the year following opioid initiation. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Health related attitudes, self-reported mental health, and lifestyle choices such as exercise and smoking are associated with patients' choices among opioid and non-opioid treatments. These results can help clinicians guide patients towards non-opioid treatments.

Just Living With Obese Family Members Increases Your Risk of Type 2 Diabetes.

IN BRIEF In this new era of accountable care and population health, large provider organizations are looking for new ways to predict diseases in their population, especially for people with diabetes. Although diabetes has been associated with the incidence of obesity, many diabetes patients are not obese. However, we find that just living in a household with one or more obese biologically related family members is a major risk factor for diabetes, even after accounting for all the other traditional risk factors.

The Marginal Costs of Adverse Drug Events Associated With Exposures to Anticoagulants and Hypoglycemic Agents During Hospitalization.

BACKGROUND: Anticoagulants and hypoglycemic agents are 2 of the most challenging drug classes for medical management in the hospital resulting in many adverse drug events (ADEs). OBJECTIVE: Estimating the marginal cost (MC) of ADEs associated with anticoagulants and hypoglycemic agents for adults in 5 patient groups during their hospital stay and the total annual ADE costs for all patients exposed to these drugs during their stay. RESEARCH DESIGN AND SUBJECT: Data are from 2010 to 2013 Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) State Inpatient Databases and Medicare Patient Safety Monitoring System (MPSMS). Deidentified patients were linked using probabilistic matching in the same hospital and year for 5 patient groups. ADE information was obtained from the MPSMS using retrospective structured record review. Costs were derived using HCUP cost-to-charge ratios. MC estimates were made using Extended Estimating Equations controlling for patient characteristics, comorbidities, hospital procedures, and hospital characteristics. MC estimates were applied to the 2013 HCUP National Inpatient Sample to estimate annual ADE costs. RESULTS: Adjusted MC estimates were smaller than unadjusted measures with most groups showing estimates that were at least 50% less. Adjusted anticoagulant ADE costs added >45% and Hypoglycemic ADE costs added >20% to inpatient costs. The 2013 hospital cost estimates for ADEs associated with anticoagulants and hypoglycemic agents were >$2.5 billion for each drug class. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the importance of accounting for confounders in the estimation of ADEs, and the importance of separate estimates of ADE costs by drug class.

Meaningful use of health information technology and declines in in-hospital adverse drug events.

OBJECTIVE: Nationwide initiatives have promoted greater adoption of health information technology as a means to reduce adverse drug events (ADEs). Hospital adoption of electronic health records with Meaningful Use (MU) capabilities expected to improve medication safety has grown rapidly. However, evidence that MU capabilities are associated with declines in in-hospital ADEs is lacking. METHODS: Data came from the 2010-2013 Medicare Patient Safety Monitoring System and the 2008-2013 Healthcare Information and Management Systems Society (HIMSS) Analytics Database. Two-level random intercept logistic regression was used to estimate the association of MU capabilities and occurrence of ADEs, adjusting for patient characteristics, hospital characteristics, and year of observation. RESULTS: Rates of in-hospital ADEs declined by 19% from 2010 to 2013. Adoption of MU capabilities was associated with 11% lower odds of an ADE (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.84-0.96). Interoperability capability was associated with 19% lower odds of an ADE (95% CI, 0.67- 0.98). Adoption of MU capabilities explained 22% of the observed reduction in ADEs, or 67,000 fewer ADEs averted by MU. DISCUSSION: Concurrent with the rapid uptake of MU and interoperability, occurrence of in-hospital ADEs declined significantly from 2010 to 2013. MU capabilities and interoperability were associated with lower occurrence of ADEs, but the effects did not vary by experience with MU. About one-fifth of the decline in ADEs from 2010 to 2013 was attributable to MU capabilities. CONCLUSION: Findings support the contention that adoption of MU capabilities and interoperability spurred by the Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health Act contributed in part to the recent decline in ADEs.

E-Prescribing and Adverse Drug Events: An Observational Study of the Medicare Part D Population With Diabetes.

BACKGROUND: Although the adoption of e-prescriptions among physicians has increased substantially under the Medicare Improvements for Patients and Providers Act and Meaningful Use programs, little is known of its impact on patient outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To examine the impact of e-prescribing on emergency visits or hospitalizations for diabetes-related adverse drug events (ADEs) including hypoglycemia. DESIGN: This is a prospective, observational cohort study with patient fixed effects. SETTING: 2011-2013 fee for service Medicare. PATIENTS: In total, 3.1 million Medicare fee for service, Part D enrolled beneficiaries over age 66 with diabetes mellitus and at least 90 days of antidiabetic medications. MEASUREMENTS: E-prescribing was measured as the percentage of all prescriptions a person received transmitted to the pharmacy electronically. The outcome measure was the occurrence of an emergency department (ED) visit or hospitalization for hypoglycemia or diabetes-related ADE. RESULTS: Unadjusted results show that there were 21 ADEs per 1000 beneficiaries that had ≥75% of their medications e-prescribed. Beneficiaries with lower e-prescribing levels had significantly higher numbers of ADEs. We found a robust association between the greater use of electronic prescriptions in the outpatient setting and the lower risk of an inpatient or ED visit for an ADE event among Medicare beneficiaries with diabetes in our adjusted analysis. At the e-prescribing threshold of 75% and above, significant reductions in ADE risk can be seen. LIMITATIONS: As an observational study, the results show an association but do not prove causation. CONCLUSIONS: Use of e-prescribing is associated with lower risk of an ED visit or hospitalization for diabetes-related ADE.

Changes in Antiemetic Overuse in Response to Choosing Wisely Recommendations.

IMPORTANCE: Antiemetics are used to prevent chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting in patients with cancer. Newer antiemetic agents (serotonin and neurokinin-1 receptor antagonists) have increased efficacy but are expensive. The American Society of Clinical Oncology's first guideline in the 2013 Choosing Wisely (CW) campaign discouraged overuse of expensive antiemetics in patients with low risk of chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting. However, little is known about patterns or trends in antiemetic overuse or whether any change has occurred with the publication of the CW recommendations. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the baseline prevalence, trends, determinants, and costs of antiemetic overuse from January 1, 2008, through March 31, 2015. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: From January 1, 2008, through March 31, 2015, this observational study applied descriptive (univariate and bivariate) and multivariable logistic regression analyses to longitudinal health insurance enrollment and nationwide MarketScan insurance claims data for 678 220 privately insured patients receiving chemotherapy before and after the October 29, 2013, announcement of the CW guidelines. The baseline prevalence, trends, determinants, and costs of antiemetic overuse were estimated in cases stratified by risk for chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Antiemetic use, overuse measure, and expenses before and after the publication of the CW recommendation, with adjustment for patient and health care professional characteristics. RESULTS: The sample included 678 220 adults who started chemotherapy during the observation period. The average age of the sample was 59.5 years, with 58.2% (n = 394 724) female. Antiemetic overuse occurred in 24.1% (n = 163 451) of patients, with highest rates among those receiving intravenous chemotherapy with high chemotherapy-induced nausea and vomiting risk (32.4% [n = 106 795]). Compared with baseline before the CW, patients had 7.0% lower odds of antiemetic overuse (95% CI, 4.4%-9.5%) during the 6 months after the CW, but this decrease was transitory: the odds of antiemetic overuse were 7.4% (95% CI, 4.6%-10.2%) higher than baseline at 6 months after the CW. Low-risk intravenous chemotherapy agents had overuse that continued to decrease 6 months after the CW. Antiemetic overuse was associated with higher costs. Reducing antiemetic overuse could have paid for 6.1% (95% CI, 5.8%-6.4%) of the chemotherapy drug costs. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Antiemetic overuse is prevalent and results in unnecessary spending associated with systemic chemotherapy treatment. Short-term decreases in antiemetic overuse were associated with the CW recommendation, but sustained decreases occurred in only one risk group.