Introducing tomsup: Theory of mind simulations using Python.

Theory of mind (ToM) is considered crucial for understanding social-cognitive abilities and impairments. However, verbal theories of the mechanisms underlying ToM are often criticized as under-specified and mutually incompatible. This leads to measures of ToM being unreliable, to the extent that even canonical experimental tasks do not require representation of others' mental states. There have been attempts at making computational models of ToM, but these are not easily available for broad research application. In order to help meet these challenges, we here introduce the Python package tomsup: Theory of mind simulations using Python. The package provides a computational eco-system for investigating and comparing computational models of hypothesized ToM mechanisms and for using them as experimental stimuli. The package notably includes an easy-to-use implementation of the variational recursive Bayesian k-ToM model developed by (Devaine, Hollard, & Daunizeau, 2014b) and of simpler non-recursive decision models, for comparison. We provide a series of tutorials on how to: (i) simulate agents relying on the k-ToM model and on a range of simpler types of mechanisms; (ii) employ those agents to generate online experimental stimuli; (iii) analyze the data generated in such experimental setup, and (iv) specify new custom ToM and heuristic cognitive models.

Monitoring of COVID-19 pandemic-related psychopathology using machine learning.

The COVID-19 pandemic is believed to have a major negative impact on global mental health due to the viral disease itself as well as the associated lockdowns, social distancing, isolation, fear, and increased uncertainty. Individuals with preexisting mental illness are likely to be particularly vulnerable to these conditions and may develop outright 'COVID-19-related psychopathology'. Here, we trained a machine learning model on structured and natural text data from electronic health records to identify COVID-19 pandemic-related psychopathology among patients receiving care in the Psychiatric Services of the Central Denmark Region. Subsequently, applying this model, we found that pandemic-related psychopathology covaries with the pandemic pressure over time. These findings may aid psychiatric services in their planning during the ongoing and future pandemics. Furthermore, the results are a testament to the potential of applying machine learning to data from electronic health records.

The PSYchiatric clinical outcome prediction (PSYCOP) cohort: leveraging the potential of electronic health records in the treatment of mental disorders.

BACKGROUND: The quality of life and lifespan are greatly reduced among individuals with mental illness. To improve prognosis, the nascent field of precision psychiatry aims to provide personalised predictions for the course of illness and response to treatment. Unfortunately, the results of precision psychiatry studies are rarely externally validated, almost never implemented in clinical practice, and tend to focus on a few selected outcomes. To overcome these challenges, we have established the PSYchiatric Clinical Outcome Prediction (PSYCOP) cohort, which will form the basis for extensive studies in the upcoming years. METHODS: PSYCOP is a retrospective cohort study that includes all patients with at least one contact with the psychiatric services of the Central Denmark Region in the period from January 1, 2011, to October 28, 2020 (n = 119 291). All data from the electronic health records (EHR) are included, spanning diagnoses, information on treatments, clinical notes, discharge summaries, laboratory tests, etc. Based on these data, machine learning methods will be used to make prediction models for a range of clinical outcomes, such as diagnostic shifts, treatment response, medical comorbidity, and premature mortality, with an explicit focus on clinical feasibility and implementation. DISCUSSIONS: We expect that studies based on the PSYCOP cohort will advance the field of precision psychiatry through the use of state-of-the-art machine learning methods on a large and representative data set. Implementation of prediction models in clinical psychiatry will likely improve treatment and, hopefully, increase the quality of life and lifespan of those with mental illness.