Measuring problem prescription opioid use among patients receiving long-term opioid analgesic treatment: development and evaluation of an algorithm for use in EHR and claims data.

Objective: Opioid surveillance in response to the opioid epidemic will benefit from scalable, automated algorithms for identifying patients with clinically documented signs of problem prescription opioid use. Existing algorithms lack accuracy. We sought to develop a high-sensitivity, high-specificity classification algorithm based on widely available structured health data to identify patients receiving chronic extended-release/long-acting (ER/LA) therapy with evidence of problem use to support subsequent epidemiologic investigations. Methods: Outpatient medical records of a probability sample of 2,000 Kaiser Permanente Washington patients receiving ≥60 days' supply of ER/LA opioids in a 90-day period from 1 January 2006 to 30 June 2015 were manually reviewed to determine the presence of clinically documented signs of problem use and used as a reference standard for algorithm development. Using 1,400 patients as training data, we constructed candidate predictors from demographic, enrollment, encounter, diagnosis, procedure, and medication data extracted from medical claims records or the equivalent from electronic health record (EHR) systems, and we used adaptive least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression to develop a model. We evaluated this model in a comparable 600-patient validation set. We compared this model to ICD-9 diagnostic codes for opioid abuse, dependence, and poisoning. This study was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov as study NCT02667262 on 28 January 2016. Results: We operationalized 1,126 potential predictors characterizing patient demographics, procedures, diagnoses, timing, dose, and location of medication dispensing. The final model incorporating 53 predictors had a sensitivity of 0.582 at positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.572. ICD-9 codes for opioid abuse, dependence, and poisoning had a sensitivity of 0.390 at PPV of 0.599 in the same cohort. Conclusions: Scalable methods using widely available structured EHR/claims data to accurately identify problem opioid use among patients receiving long-term ER/LA therapy were unsuccessful. This approach may be useful for identifying patients needing clinical evaluation.

Identifying and classifying opioid-related overdoses: A validation study.

PURPOSE: The study aims to develop and validate algorithms to identify and classify opioid overdoses using claims and other coded data, and clinical text extracted from electronic health records using natural language processing (NLP). METHODS: Primary data were derived from Kaiser Permanente Northwest (2008-2014), an integrated health care system (~n > 475 000 unique individuals per year). Data included International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9) codes for nonfatal diagnoses, International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) codes for fatal events, clinical notes, and prescription medication records. We assessed sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for algorithms relative to medical chart review and conducted assessments of algorithm portability in Kaiser Permanente Washington, Tennessee State Medicaid, and Optum. RESULTS: Code-based algorithm performance was excellent for opioid-related overdoses (sensitivity = 97.2%, specificity = 84.6%) and classification of heroin-involved overdoses (sensitivity = 91.8%, specificity = 99.0%). Performance was acceptable for code-based suicide/suicide attempt classifications (sensitivity = 70.7%, specificity = 90.5%); sensitivity improved with NLP (sensitivity = 78.7%, specificity = 91.0%). Performance was acceptable for the code-based substance abuse-involved classification (sensitivity = 75.3%, specificity = 79.5%); sensitivity improved with the NLP-enhanced algorithm (sensitivity = 80.5%, specificity = 76.3%). The opioid-related overdose algorithm performed well across portability assessment sites, with sensitivity greater than 96% and specificity greater than 84%. Cross-site sensitivity for heroin-involved overdose was greater than 87%, specificity greater than or equal to 99%. CONCLUSIONS: Code-based algorithms developed to detect opioid-related overdoses and classify them according to heroin involvement perform well. Algorithms for classifying suicides/attempts and abuse-related opioid overdoses perform adequately for use for research, particularly given the complexity of classifying such overdoses. The NLP-enhanced algorithms for suicides/suicide attempts and abuse-related overdoses perform significantly better than code-based algorithms and are appropriate for use in settings that have data and capacity to use NLP.

A Survey of Patients' Perceptions of Pill Appearance and Responses to Changes in Appearance for Four Chronic Disease Medications.

BACKGROUND: Generic versions of a drug can vary in appearance, which can impact adherence. OBJECTIVE: To assess the preferences, perceptions, and responses of patients who experienced a change in the appearance of a generic medication. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey of patients from a large commercial health plan. PARTICIPANTS: Adults receiving generic versions of lisinopril, fluoxetine, lamotrigine, or simvastatin who experienced a change in the color or shape of their pills between March 2014 and November 2015. MAIN MEASURES: Likert-scale responses to questions concerning perceptions of generic drug safety and effectiveness, reliance on and preferences for pill appearance, and responses to pill appearance changes. Multivariable logistic regression-modeled predictors of seeking advice and adjusting use following a pill appearance change. KEY RESULTS: Of 814 respondents (response rate = 41%), 72% relied on pill appearance to ensure they took the correct medication. A similar percentage wanted their pills to remain the same color (72%), shape (71%), and size (75%) upon refill, but 58% would not have paid a $1 premium on a $5 co-pay to ensure such consistency. Most respondents (86%) wanted their pharmacists to notify them about pill appearance changes, but only 37% recalled such notification; 21% thought they received the wrong medication, and 8% adjusted medication use. Younger respondents (18-33 vs. 50-57 years) were more likely to seek advice (odds ratio [OR] = 1.91; 95% confidence interval [CI],1.02-3.59), and respondents with lower household income (< $30,000 vs. > $100,000) were more likely to adjust medication use (OR = 3.40; 95% CI,1.09-10.67). CONCLUSIONS: Requiring uniform pill appearance may help increase adherence but presents challenges. Standardized pharmacy notification and education policies may be a more feasible short-term solution.