Spatio-temporal model to investigate COVID-19 spread accounting for the mobility amongst municipalities.

The rapid spread of COVID-19 worldwide led to the implementation of various non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission and hence reduce the number of infections. Using telecom-operator-based mobility data and a spatio-temporal dynamic model, the impact of mobility on the evolution of the pandemic at the level of the 581 Belgian municipalities is investigated. By decomposing incidence, particularly into within- and between-municipality components, we noted that the global epidemic component is relatively more important in larger municipalities (e.g., cities), while the local component is more relevant in smaller (rural) municipalities. Investigation of the effect of mobility on the pandemic spread showed that reduction of mobility has a significant impact in reducing the number of new infections.

The efficacy of a brief intervention to reduce alcohol use in persons with HIV in South Africa, a randomized clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Since there is a high prevalence of high risk alcohol use in patients with HIV in Africa, with negative health effects, there is a need for short interventions to reduce alcohol use. METHODS: We studied the efficacy of a short intervention aiming to reduce alcohol use based on the Information-Motivation-Behavioural Skills Model in patients with HIV with high alcohol use (measured by AUDIT). The study was performed in three outpatient clinics in South Africa. The intervention group received in one-session intervention a personalized feedback on AUDIT results trying to make people aware that they are in the medium- or high-risk drinking category. Both the intervention and the control group received a health education leaflet. RESULTS: A total of 560 patients participated in the study with a follow up of 1 year. There was a significant decrease in total AUDIT scores between baseline and follow up points 1 (5 months) and 2 (1 year) in both groups. There was no significant decrease between time points 1 and 2. However, between the intervention and control groups there was no difference in reduction of alcohol use to abstinence or low risk alcohol use over time as there was no difference in absolute decrease in AUDIT-score or percentage of change in AUDIT score. The intervention had no influence on the quality of life outcomes, depression scores, stigma, tobacco use, viral load and therapy adherence at both time points. In all secondary outcomes, there was no significant interaction between intervention and time. CONCLUSION: The brief intervention was not successful at reducing alcohol use both 5 and 12 months after the intervention. However, there was a beneficial effect on reported hazardous or harmful alcohol use at least over a short term follow up period in both study groups. It might be that only an interview and/or the distribution of a health leaflet can be successful in reducing alcohol use but this needs to be investigated with more objective measures of alcohol use. To sustain an effect, most likely repetitive contacts with hazardous or harmful alcohol drinkers will be needed during a long follow up period.

High prevalence of onchocerciasis-associated epilepsy in villages in Maridi County, Republic of South Sudan: A community-based survey.

PURPOSE: To determine the prevalence and incidence of epilepsy in an onchocerciasis endemic region of South Sudan. METHODS: In May 2018, a door-to-door household survey was conducted in 8 study sites in an onchocerciasis endemic area in Maridi County. RESULTS: A total of 2511 households agreed to participate in the study, corresponding to 17,652 individuals. An epilepsy screening questionnaire identified 799 persons suspected to have epilepsy (4.5%); in 736 of the 766 persons (96.1%) seen by a clinical officer the diagnosis of epilepsy was confirmed. Adding 38 persons who were not seen but with a positive answer to a combination of screening questions, 774 persons (4.4%) had epilepsy. Epilepsy prevalence was highest in the 11-20 age group (10.5%); 66 persons with epilepsy (PWE) developed their first seizures in the year preceding the survey (annual incidence = 373.9/100.000). Neurocysticercosis cannot explain the high epilepsy prevalence since no pigs are kept in the area. Independent risk factors for epilepsy included male gender, belonging to a "permanent household" and a farming family, and living in a village bordering the Maridi River. Only 7209 (40.8%) of the population took ivermectin in 2017. CONCLUSION: A very high prevalence and incidence of epilepsy was observed in several villages in Maridi County located close to the Maridi River and the Maridi dam. Urgent action is needed to prevent children in Maridi County from developing OAE by strengthening the onchocerciasis elimination program.

High prevalence of epilepsy in onchocerciasis endemic health areas in Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BACKGROUND: A high prevalence of epilepsy has been observed in many onchocerciasis endemic regions. This study is to estimate the prevalence of active epilepsy and exposure to Onchocerca volvulus infection in a rural population in Ituri province, Democratic Republic of Congo. METHODS: In August 2016, a community-based cross-sectional study was conducted in an onchocerciasis endemic area in the rural health zone of Logo, Ituri Province. Households within two neighbouring health areas were randomly sampled. To identify persons with epilepsy, a three-stage approach was used. In the first stage, all individuals of the selected households were screened for epilepsy by non-medical field workers using a validated 5-item questionnaire. In the second and third stage, suspected cases of epilepsy were examined by non-specialist medical doctors, and by a neurologist, respectively. A case of epilepsy was defined according to the 2014 International League Against Epilepsy (ILAE) guidelines. Exposure to O. volvulus was assessed by testing for IgG4 antibodies to an O. volvulus antigen (OV16 Rapid Test,) in individuals aged 3 years and older. RESULTS: Out of 1389 participants included in the survey, 64 were considered to have active epilepsy (prevalence 4.6%) (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.6-5.8). The highest age-specific epilepsy prevalence estimate was observed in those aged 20 to 29 years (8.2%). Median age of epilepsy onset was 10 years, with a peak incidence of epilepsy in the 10 to 15 year-old age group. OV16 test results were available for 912 participants, of whom 30.5% (95% CI, 27.6-33.6) tested positive. The prevalence of OV16 positivity in a village ranged from 8.6 to 68.0%. After adjusting for age, gender and ivermectin use, a significant association between exposure to onchocerciasis and epilepsy was observed (adjusted odds ratio = 3.19, 95% CI: 1.63-5.64) (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: A high prevalence of epilepsy and a significant association between epilepsy and exposure to O. volvulus were observed in the population in Ituri province, Democratic Republic of Congo. There is an urgent need to implement a CDTI programme and to scale up an epilepsy treatment and care programme.

High prevalence of epilepsy in onchocerciasis endemic regions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

BACKGROUND: An increased prevalence of epilepsy has been reported in many onchocerciasis endemic areas. The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence of epilepsy in onchocerciasis endemic areas in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and investigate whether a higher annual intake of Ivermectin was associated with a lower prevalence of epilepsy. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPLE FINDINGS: Between July 2014 and February 2016, house-to-house epilepsy prevalence surveys were carried out in areas with a high level of onchocerciasis endemicity: 3 localities in the Bas-Uele, 24 in the Tshopo and 21 in the Ituri province. Ivermectin uptake was recorded for every household member. This database allowed a matched case-control pair subset to be created that enabled putative risk factors for epilepsy to be tested using univariate logistic regression models. Risk factors relating to onchocerciasis were tested using a multivariate random effects model. To identify presence of clusters of epilepsy cases, the Kulldorff's scan statistic was used. Of 12, 408 people examined in the different health areas 407 (3.3%) were found to have a history of epilepsy. A high prevalence of epilepsy was observed in health areas in the 3 provinces: 6.8-8.5% in Bas-Uele, 0.8-7.4% in Tshopo and 3.6-6.2% in Ituri. Median age of epilepsy onset was 9 years, and the modal age 12 years. The case control analysis demonstrated that before the appearance of epilepsy, compared to the same life period in controls, persons with epilepsy were around two times less likely (OR: 0.52; 95%CI: (0.28, 0.98)) to have taken Ivermectin than controls. After the appearance of epilepsy, there was no difference of Ivermectin intake between cases and controls. Only in Ituri, a significant cluster (p-value = 0.0001) was identified located around the Draju sample site area. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of epilepsy in health areas in onchocerciasis endemic regions in the DRC was 2-10 times higher than in non-onchocerciasis endemic regions in Africa. Our data suggests that Ivermectin protects against epilepsy in an onchocerciasis endemic region. However, a prospective population based intervention study is needed to confirm this.