Recalibration of the Gail model for predicting invasive breast cancer risk in Spanish women: a population-based cohort study.

The Gail model for predicting the absolute risk of invasive breast cancer has been validated extensively in US populations, but its performance in the international setting remains uncertain. We evaluated the predictive accuracy of the Gail model in 54,649 Spanish women aged 45-68 years who were free of breast cancer at the 1996-1998 baseline mammographic examination in the population-based Navarre Breast Cancer Screening Program. Incident cases of invasive breast cancer and competing deaths were ascertained until the end of 2005 (average follow-up of 7.7 years) through linkage with population-based cancer and mortality registries. The Gail model was tested for calibration and discrimination in its original form and after recalibration to the lower breast cancer incidence and risk factor prevalence in the study cohort, and compared through cross-validation with a Navarre model fully developed from this cohort. The original Gail model overpredicted significantly the 835 cases of invasive breast cancer observed in the cohort (ratio of expected to observed cases 1.46, 95 % CI 1.36-1.56). The recalibrated Gail model was well calibrated overall (expected-to-observed ratio 1.00, 95 % CI 0.94-1.07), but it tended to underestimate risk for women in low-risk quintiles and to overestimate risk in high-risk quintiles (P = 0.01). The Navarre model showed good cross-validated calibration overall (expected-to-observed ratio 0.98, 95 % CI 0.92-1.05) and in different cohort subsets. The Navarre and Gail models had modest cross-validated discrimination indexes of 0.542 (95 % CI 0.521-0.564) and 0.544 (95 % CI 0.523-0.565), respectively. Although the original Gail model cannot be applied directly to populations with different underlying rates of invasive breast cancer, it can readily be recalibrated to provide unbiased estimates of absolute risk in such populations. Nevertheless, its limited discrimination ability at the individual level highlights the need to develop extended models with additional strong risk factors.

Mammographic density and risk of breast cancer according to tumor characteristics and mode of detection: a Spanish population-based case-control study.

INTRODUCTION: It is not clear whether high mammographic density (MD) is equally associated with all subtypes of breast cancer (BC). We investigated the association between MD and subsequent BC, considering invasiveness, means of detection, pathologic subtype, and the time elapsed since mammographic exploration and BC diagnosis. METHODS: BC cases occurring in the population of women who attended screening from 1997 through 2004 in Navarre, a Spanish region with a fully consolidated screening program, were identified via record linkage with the Navarre Cancer Registry (n = 1,172). Information was extracted from the records of their first attendance at screening in that period. For each case, we randomly selected four controls, matched by screening round, year of birth, and place of residence. Cases were classified according to invasiveness (ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) versus invasive tumors), pathologic subtype (considering hormonal receptors and HER2), and type of diagnosis (screen-detected versus interval cases). MD was evaluated by a single, experienced radiologist by using a semiquantitative scale. Data on BC risk factors were obtained by the screening program in the corresponding round. The association between MD and tumor subtype was assessed by using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: MD was clearly associated with subsequent BC. The odds ratio (OR) for the highest MD category (MD >75%) compared with the reference category (MD <10%) was similar for DCIS (OR = 3.47; 95% CI = 1.46 to 8.27) and invasive tumors (OR = 2.95; 95% CI = 2.01 to 4.35). The excess risk was particularly high for interval cases (OR = 7.72; 95% CI = 4.02 to 14.81) in comparison with screened detected tumors (OR = 2.17; 95% CI = 1.40 to 3.36). Sensitivity analyses excluding interval cases diagnosed in the first year after MD assessment or immediately after an early recall to screening yielded similar results. No differences were seen regarding pathologic subtypes. The excess risk associated with MD persisted for at least 7 to 8 years after mammographic exploration. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that MD is an important risk factor for all types of breast cancer. High breast density strongly increases the risk of developing an interval tumor, and this excess risk is not completely explained by a possible masking effect.

Impact of intermediate mammography assessment on the likelihood of false-positive results in breast cancer screening programmes.

OBJECTIVES: Breast cancer screening is offered to 100% of the target population in Spain and intermediate mammograms (IMs) are sometimes indicated. This study was aimed at analysing the frequency of IMs, the factors determining their recommendation, and their impact on the risk of false-positive results and the detection rate. METHODS: Data from 3,471,307 mammograms from Spanish breast cancer screening programmes were included. RESULTS: 3.36% of the mammograms were IMs. The factors associated with the use of IMs were age, initial screening, previous invasive tests, a familial history of breast cancer and use of hormone replacement therapy. In screening episodes with an IM, the probability of a false-positive result was 13.74% (95% CI: 13.43-14.05), almost double that in episodes without IMs (6.02%, 95% CI 5.99-6.05). In young women with previous invasive procedures, a familial history of breast cancer or hormone replacement therapy use who were undergoing their initial screen, this probability was lower when IMs were performed. IMs always increased the detection rate. CONCLUSIONS: The factors prompting IMs should be characterised so that radiologists can systematise their recommendations according to the presence of the factors maximising the benefits and minimising the adverse effects of this procedure. KEY POINTS: Intermediate mammograms in breast screening offer potential benefits but also disadvantages. Intermediate mammograms increase the false-positive rate except in specific groups. Intermediate mammograms reduce the false-positive rate in younger women and initial screens. Intermediate mammograms also reduce false-positive results in women with personal risk factors. Intermediate mammograms increase cancer detection mainly in women without risk factors.

Decline in age at menarche among Spanish women born from 1925 to 1962.

BACKGROUND: While the timing of reproductive events varies across populations, a downward trend in age at menarche has nevertheless been reported in most of the developed world over the past century. Given the impact of change in age at menarche on health conditions, this study sought to examine secular trends in age at menarche among women living in Navarre (Northern Spain) who participated in a population-based breast cancer screening programme. METHODS: The study was based on 110545 women born from 1925 to 1962. Trends were tested using a linear regression model, in which year of birth was entered continuously as the predictor and age at menarche (years) as the response variable, using size of town and region of birth as covariates. RESULTS: Among women born in Navarre between 1925 and 1962, age at menarche declined steadily from an average of 13.72 years in the 1925-1929 birth-cohorts to 12.83 years in the 1958-1962 birth-cohorts. Controlling for size of town or city of birth, age at menarche declined by an average of 0.132 years every 5 years over the period 1925-1962. This decline was greater in women born in rural versus urban settings. Trends were also different among regions of birth. CONCLUSION: We report a population-based study showing a downward trend in age of onset of menarche among Spanish women born in the period 1925-1962, something that is more pronounced among women born in rural settings and varies geographically.