Short-term Gini coefficient estimation using nonlinear autoregressive multilayer perceptron model.

Poverty, an intricate global challenge influenced by economic, political, and social elements, is characterized by a deficiency in crucial resources, necessitating collective efforts towards its mitigation as embodied in the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. The Gini coefficient is a statistical instrument used by nations to measure income inequality, economic status, and social disparity, as escalated income inequality often parallels high poverty rates. Despite its standard annual computation, impeded by logistical hurdles and the gradual transformation of income inequality, we suggest that short-term forecasting of the Gini coefficient could offer instantaneous comprehension of shifts in income inequality during swift transitions, such as variances due to seasonal employment patterns in the expanding gig economy. System Identification (SI), a methodology utilized in domains like engineering and mathematical modeling to construct or refine dynamic system models from captured data, relies significantly on the Nonlinear Auto-Regressive (NAR) model due to its reliability and capability of integrating nonlinear functions, complemented by contemporary machine learning strategies and computational algorithms to approximate complex system dynamics to address these limitations. In this study, we introduce a NAR Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) approach for brief term estimation of the Gini coefficient. Several parameters were tested to discover the optimal model for Malaysia's Gini coefficient within 1987-2015, namely the output lag space, hidden units, and initial random seeds. The One-Step-Ahead (OSA), residual correlation, and residual histograms were used to test the validity of the model. The results demonstrate the model's efficacy over a 28-year period with superior model fit (MSE: 1.14 × 10-7) and uncorrelated residuals, thereby substantiating the model's validity and usefulness for predicting short-term variations in much smaller time steps compared to traditional manual approaches.

Regularized Machine Learning Models for Prediction of Metabolic Syndrome Using GCKR, APOA5, and BUD13 Gene Variants: Tehran Cardiometabolic Genetic Study.

OBJECTIVE: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a complex multifactorial disorder that considerably burdens healthcare systems. We aim to classify MetS using regularized machine learning models in the presence of the risk variants of GCKR, BUD13 and APOA5, and environmental risk factors. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A cohort study was conducted on 2,346 cases and 2,203 controls from eligible Tehran Cardiometabolic Genetic Study (TCGS) participants whose data were collected from 1999 to 2017. We used different regularization approaches [least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), ridge regression (RR), elasticnet (ENET), adaptive LASSO (aLASSO), and adaptive ENET (aENET)] and a classical logistic regression (LR) model to classify MetS and select influential variables that predict MetS. Demographics, clinical features, and common polymorphisms in the GCKR, BUD13 and APOA5 genes of eligible participants were assessed to classify TCGS participant status in MetS development. The models' performance was evaluated by 10-repeated 10-fold crossvalidation. Various assessment measures of sensitivity, specificity, classification accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and AUC-precision-recall (AUC-PR) curves were used to compare the models. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 50.38% of participants developed MetS. The groups were not similar in terms of baseline characteristics and risk variants. MetS was significantly associated with age, gender, schooling years, body mass index (BMI), and alternate alleles in all the risk variants, as indicated by LR. A comparison of accuracy, AUCROC, and AUC-PR metrics indicated that the regularization models outperformed LR. Regularized machine learning models provided comparable classification performances, whereas the aLASSO model was more parsimonious and selected fewer predictors. CONCLUSION: Regularized machine learning models provided more accurate and parsimonious MetS classifying models. These high-performing diagnostic models can lay the foundation for clinical decision support tools that use genetic and demographical variables to locate individuals at high risk for MetS.

A Bayesian latent class extension of naive Bayesian classifier and its application to the classification of gastric cancer patients.

BACKGROUND: The Naive Bayes (NB) classifier is a powerful supervised algorithm widely used in Machine Learning (ML). However, its effectiveness relies on a strict assumption of conditional independence, which is often violated in real-world scenarios. To address this limitation, various studies have explored extensions of NB that tackle the issue of non-conditional independence in the data. These approaches can be broadly categorized into two main categories: feature selection and structure expansion. In this particular study, we propose a novel approach to enhancing NB by introducing a latent variable as the parent of the attributes. We define this latent variable using a flexible technique called Bayesian Latent Class Analysis (BLCA). As a result, our final model combines the strengths of NB and BLCA, giving rise to what we refer to as NB-BLCA. By incorporating the latent variable, we aim to capture complex dependencies among the attributes and improve the overall performance of the classifier. METHODS: Both Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm and the Gibbs sampling approach were offered for parameter learning. A simulation study was conducted to evaluate the classification of the model in comparison with the ordinary NB model. In addition, real-world data related to 976 Gastric Cancer (GC) and 1189 Non-ulcer dyspepsia (NUD) patients was used to show the model's performance in an actual application. The validity of models was evaluated using the 10-fold cross-validation. RESULTS: The presented model was superior to ordinary NB in all the simulation scenarios according to higher classification sensitivity and specificity in test data. The NB-BLCA model using Gibbs sampling accuracy was 87.77 (95% CI: 84.87-90.29). This index was estimated at 77.22 (95% CI: 73.64-80.53) and 74.71 (95% CI: 71.02-78.15) for the NB-BLCA model using the EM algorithm and ordinary NB classifier, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: When considering the modification of the NB classifier, incorporating a latent component into the model offers numerous advantages, particularly within medical and health-related contexts. By doing so, the researchers can bypass the extensive search algorithm and structure learning required in the local learning and structure extension approach. The inclusion of latent class variables allows for the integration of all attributes during model construction. Consequently, the NB-BLCA model serves as a suitable alternative to conventional NB classifiers when the assumption of independence is violated, especially in domains pertaining to health and medicine.

Factors that Influence The Occurrence of Multiple Pregnancies after Intracytoplasmic Injection Cycles with Two or Three Fresh Embryo Transfers.

BACKGROUND: Multiple pregnancies are an important complication of assisted reproductive technology (ART). The present study aims to indentify the risk factors for multiple pregnancies independent of the number of transferred embryos. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This retrospective study reviewed the medical records of patients who underwent intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) cycles in Royan Institute between October 2011 and January 2012. We entered 12 factors that affected the number of gestational sacs into the poisson regression (PR) model. Factors were obtained from two study populations-cycles with double embryo transfer (DET) and cycles that transferred three embryos (TET). We sought to determine the factors that influenced the number of gestational sacs. These factors were entered into multivariable logistic regression (MLR) to identify risk factors for multiple pregnancies. RESULTS: A total of 1000 patients referred to Royan Institute for ART during the study period. We included 606 eligible patients in this study. PR analysis demonstrated that the quality of transferred embryos and woman's age had a significant effect on the number of observed sacs in patients who underwent ICSI with DET. There was no significant predictive variable for multiple pregnancies according to MLR analysis. Our findings demonstrated that both regression models (PR and MLR) had the same outputs. A significant relation existed between age and fertilization rate with multiple pregnancies in patients who underwent ICSI with TET. CONCLUSION: Single embryo transfer (SET) should be considered with the remaining embryos cryopreserved to prevent multiple pregnancies in women younger than 35 years of age who undergo ICSI cycles with high fertilization rates and good or excellent quality embryos. However, further prospective studies are necessary to evaluate whether SET in women with these risk factors can significantly decrease multiple pregnancies and improve cycle outcomes.