Prediction the changes of anthropometric indices following a weight-loss diet in overweight and obese women by mathematical models.

Estimating the change rates in body size following the weight loss programs is very important in the compliance of those programs. Although, there is enough evidence on the significant association of body weight change with the other anthropometric indices and/ or body composition, there is so limited studies that have depicted this relationship as mathematical formulas. Therefore, the present research designed to use a mathematical model to predict changes of anthropometric indices following a weight-loss diet in the overweight and obese women. In this longitudinal study, 212 overweight/obese women who received an individualized low-calorie diet (LCD) were selected and followed-up for five months. Anthropometric measurements such as weight, waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), and body composition (lean mass and fat mass) were performed. Then, body mass index, waist to hip ratio (WHR), waist to height ratio (WHtR), a body shape index (ABSI), abdominal volume index (AVI), and body adiposity index (BAI) were calculated using the related formula. Following the LCD led to the substantial and consistent changes in various anthropometric indices over time. All of these anthropometric variations were significantly related with the percent change (PC) of body weight except than WHR. Moreover, according to the mathematical formulas, weight loss was closely related to the decrease of WC (PC-WC = - 0.120 + 0.703 × PC-WT), HC (PC-HC = - 0.350 + 0.510 × PC-WT), body fat percentage (PC-Body Fat = - 0.019 + 0.915 × PC-WT), WHtR (PC-WHtR = - 0.113 + 0.702 × PC-WT), and improvements in ABSI (PC-ABSI = - 0.112 + 0.034 × PC-WT) and AVI (PC-AVI = - 0.324 + 1.320 × PC-WT). The decreasing rates of WC, HC, body fat percentage, WHtR, ABSI, and AVI in relation to the weight loss were clinically and statistically significant. This means that a healthy weight lowering diet would be accompanied by decreasing the body fat, body size and also the risk of morbidities.

Unraveling atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk factors through conditional probability analysis with Bayesian networks: insights from the AZAR cohort study.

This study aimed at modelling the underlying predictor of ASCVD through the Bayesian network (BN). Data for the AZAR Cohort Study, which evaluated 500 healthcare providers in Iran, was collected through examinations, and blood samples. Two BNs were used to explore a suitable causal model for analysing the underlying predictor of ASCVD; Bayesian search through an algorithmic approach and knowledge-based BNs. Results showed significant differences in ASCVD risk factors across background variables' levels. The diagnostic indices showed better performance for the knowledge-based BN (Area under ROC curve (AUC) = 0.78, Accuracy = 76.6, Sensitivity = 62.5, Negative predictive value (NPV) = 96.0, Negative Likelihood Ratio (LR-) = 0.48) compared to Bayesian search (AUC = 0.76, Accuracy = 72.4, Sensitivity = 17.5, NPV = 93.2, LR- = 0.83). In addition, we decided on knowledge-based BN because of the interpretability of the relationships. Based on this BN, being male (conditional probability = 63.7), age over 45 (36.3), overweight (51.5), Mets (23.8), diabetes (8.3), smoking (10.6), hypertension (12.1), high T-C (28.5), high LDL-C (23.9), FBS (12.1), and TG (25.9) levels were associated with higher ASCVD risk. Low and normal HDL-C levels also had higher ASCVD risk (35.3 and 37.4), while high HDL-C levels had lower risk (27.3). In conclusion, BN demonstrated that ASCVD was significantly associated with certain risk factors including being older and overweight male, having a history of Mets, diabetes, hypertension, having high levels of T-C, LDL-C, FBS, and TG, but Low and normal HDL-C and being a smoker. The study may provide valuable insights for developing effective prevention strategies for ASCVD in Iran.

Machine learning framework for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk assessment.

Introduction: Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is the first leading cause of mortality globally. To identify the individual risk factors of ASCVD utilizing the machine learning (ML) approaches. Materials & methods: This cohort-based cross-sectional study was conducted on data of 500 participants with ASCVD among Tabriz University Medical Sciences employees, during 2020. The data with ML methods were developed and validated to predict ASCVD risk with naive Bayes (NB), spurt vesture machines (SVM), regression tree (RT), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), artificial neural networks (ANN), generalized additive models (GAM), and logistic regression (LR). Results: Accuracy of the models ranged from 95.7 to 98.1%, with a sensitivity of 50.0 to 97.3%, specificity of 74.3 to 99.1%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 0.0 to 98.0%, negative predictive value (NPV) of 68.4 to 100.0%, positive likelihood ratio (LR +) of 13.8 to 96.4%, negative likelihood ratio (LR-) of 3.6 to 51.9%, and area under ROC curve (AUC) of 62.5 to 99.4%. The ANN fit the data best with an accuracy of 98.1% (95% CI: 96.5-99.1), a specificity of 99.1% (95% CI: 97.7-99.9), a LR + of 96.4% (95% CI: 36.2-258.8), and AUC of 99.4% (95% CI: 85.2-97.0). Based on the optimal model, sex (females), age, smoking, and metabolic syndrome were shown to be the most important risk factors of ASCVD. Conclusion: Sex (females), age, smoking, and metabolic syndrome were predictors obtained by ANN. Considering the ANN as the optimal model identified, more accurate prevention planning may be designed.