A Simple Scoring Model Predicting the Outcome of COVID-19 Patients: Tanta COVID Score.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 is a worldwide pandemic with high rates of morbidity and mortality, and an uncertain prognosis leading to an increased risk of infection in health providers and limited hospital care capacities. In this study, we have proposed a predictive, interpretable prognosis scoring system with the use of readily obtained clinical, radiological and laboratory characteristics to accurately predict worsening of the condition and overall survival of patients with COVID-19. METHODS: This is a single-center, observational, prospective, cohort study. A total of 347 patients infected with COVID-19 presenting to the Tanta University Hospital, Egypt, were enrolled in the study, and clinical, radiological and laboratory data were analyzed. Top-ranked variables were identified and selected to be integrated into a Cox regression model, building the scoring system for accurate prediction of the prognosis of patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: The six variables that were finally selected in the scoring system were lymphopenia, serum CRP, ferritin, D-Dimer, radiological CT lung findings and associated chronic debilitating disease. The scoring system discriminated risk groups with either mild disease or severe illness characterized by respiratory distress (and also those with hypoxia and in need for oxygen therapy or mechanical ventilation) or death. The area under the curve to estimate the discrimination performance of the scoring system was more than 90%. CONCLUSION: We proposed a simple and clinically useful predictive scoring model for COVID- 19 patients. However, additional independent validation will be required before the scoring model can be used commonly.

Tanta Protocol for Management of COVID-19: Perspectives from a Developing Country.

In late 2019, SARS-COV-2 disease was firstly discovered in Wuhan, China and then it infected millions of people worldwide. Later, the World Health Organization (WHO) described COVID-19 as the first pandemic invading the world in the 21st century. The WHO has declared that the emerging infection will last long enough to force adjustments not only in people's lifestyles but also in the health care system. This amendment is expected to spread through many medical practices and specialties. A lot of diagnostic and therapeutic modalities have been proposed for COVID-19 management. The best strategy for the management of patients requires a multi-disciplinary team approach with correct decisions regarding the right timing of each modality of treatment. The participating multidisciplinary team for COVID-19 management includes six infectious diseases experts in Tanta University; one critical care management expert, an emergency medicine expert and two pharmacists in Tanta University. In this review, we reported our multi-disciplinary team experience with up to date literature guidance to propose a valid protocol for the management of COVID-19 patients in a limited resources setting.

Do Zinc Supplements Enhance the Clinical Efficacy of Hydroxychloroquine?: a Randomized, Multicenter Trial.

No specific treatment for COVID-19 infection is available up till now, and there is a great urge for effective treatment to reduce morbidity and mortality during this pandemic. We aimed to evaluate the effect of combining chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine (CQ/HCQ) and zinc in the treatment of COVID-19 patients. This was a randomized clinical trial conducted at three major University hospitals in Egypt. One hundred ninety-one patients with a confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 infection were randomized into two groups: group I (96) patients received both HCQ and zinc, and group II (95) received HCQ only. The primary endpoints were the recovery within 28 days, the need for mechanical ventilation, and death. The two groups were matched for age and gender. They had no significant difference regarding any of the baseline laboratory parameters or clinical severity grading. Clinical recovery after 28 days was achieved by 79.2% in the zinc group and 77.9% in zinc-free treatment group, without any significant difference (p = 0.969). The need for mechanical ventilation and the overall mortality rates did not show any significant difference between the 2 groups either (p = 0.537 and 0.986, respectively). The age of the patient and the need for mechanical ventilation were the only risk factors associated with the patients' mortality by the univariate regression analysis (p = 0.001 and < 0.001, respectively). Zinc supplements did not enhance the clinical efficacy of HCQ. More randomized studies are needed to evaluate the value of adding zinc to other therapies for COVID 19. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT04447534.

RETRACTED: Hydroxychloroquine in the Treatment of COVID-19: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Study.

RETRACTED ARTICLE: The COVID-19 pandemic is showing an exponential growth, mandating an urgent need to develop an effective treatment. Indeed, to date, a well-established therapy is still lacking. We aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) added to standard care in patients with COVID-19. This was a multicenter, randomized controlled trial conducted at three major university hospitals in Egypt. One hundred ninety-four patients with confirmed diagnosis of COVID-19 were included in the study after signing informed consent. They were equally randomized into two arms: 97 patients administrated HCQ plus standard care (HCQ group) and 97 patients administered only standard care as a control arm (control group). The primary endpoints were recovery within 28 days, need for mechanical ventilation, or death. The two groups were matched for age and gender. There was no significant difference between them regarding any of the baseline characteristics or laboratory parameters. Four patients (4.1%) in the HCQ group and 5 (5.2%) patients in the control group needed mechanical ventilation (P = 0.75). The overall mortality did not differ between the two groups, as six patients (6.2%) died in the HCQ group and 5 (5.2%) died in the control group (P = 0.77). Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that HCQ treatment was not significantly associated with decreased mortality in COVID-19 patients. So, adding HCQ to standard care did not add significant benefit, did not decrease the need for ventilation, and did not reduce mortality rates in COVID-19 patients.

Pre-existing liver disease is associated with poor outcome in patients with SARS CoV2 infection; The APCOLIS Study (APASL COVID-19 Liver Injury Spectrum Study).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: COVID-19 is a dominant pulmonary disease, with multisystem involvement, depending upon comorbidities. Its profile in patients with pre-existing chronic liver disease (CLD) is largely unknown. We studied the liver injury patterns of SARS-Cov-2 in CLD patients, with or without cirrhosis. METHODS: Data was collected from 13 Asian countries on patients with CLD, known or newly diagnosed, with confirmed COVID-19. RESULTS: Altogether, 228 patients [185 CLD without cirrhosis and 43 with cirrhosis] were enrolled, with comorbidities in nearly 80%. Metabolism associated fatty liver disease (113, 61%) and viral etiology (26, 60%) were common. In CLD without cirrhosis, diabetes [57.7% vs 39.7%, OR = 2.1 (1.1-3.7), p = 0.01] and in cirrhotics, obesity, [64.3% vs. 17.2%, OR = 8.1 (1.9-38.8), p = 0.002] predisposed more to liver injury than those without these. Forty three percent of CLD without cirrhosis presented as acute liver injury and 20% cirrhotics presented with either acute-on-chronic liver failure [5 (11.6%)] or acute decompensation [4 (9%)]. Liver related complications increased (p < 0.05) with stage of liver disease; a Child-Turcotte Pugh score of 9 or more at presentation predicted high mortality [AUROC 0.94, HR = 19.2 (95 CI 2.3-163.3), p < 0.001, sensitivity 85.7% and specificity 94.4%). In decompensated cirrhotics, the liver injury was progressive in 57% patients, with 43% mortality. Rising bilirubin and AST/ALT ratio predicted mortality among cirrhosis patients. CONCLUSIONS: SARS-Cov-2 infection causes significant liver injury in CLD patients, decompensating one fifth of cirrhosis, and worsening the clinical status of the already decompensated. The CLD patients with diabetes and obesity are more vulnerable and should be closely monitored.

Low dose ribavirin has been effective in the treatment of incapacitating muco-cutaneous extrahepatic manifestations in patients with hepatitis C with contraindication or no access for approved antiviral treatment.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: Chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a major public health problem and represents a common cause of chronic liver disease worldwide. The Egyptian Demographic Health Survey (EDHS) has estimated HCV prevalence in Egypt to be 14.7%. HCV can affect multiple organ systems and cause a variety of extrahepatic manifestations. Most of extrahepatic manifestations affect the skin and mucous membranes; such as lichen planus (LP), psoriasis, and leucocytoclastic vasculitis. The treatment of extrahepatic manifestations has been disappointing in patients not indicated for interferon with no access for the new costly all oral treatments. PATIENTS AND METHODS: In 2014, thirty Egyptian patients with incapacitating mucocutaneous extrahepatic manifestations due to chronic HCV infection, not indicated for interferon, have been randomised into two groups; group I treated with ribavirin (5-10mg/kg daily divided into 2 doses), and group II treated with local steroids for 3months. Patients were followed up for 3months. Dermatology life quality index score has been measured before and after treatment for all patients. RESULTS: A significant improvement of mucocutaneous lesions has been accomplished in group I in comparison to group II (p<0.01). All lesions in group I showed a significant improvement except psoriasis (p>0.05). A significant improvement of dermatology life quality index score has been found in patients in group I when compared to group II (p<0.05). CONCLUSION: We conclude that low dose ribavirin was effective in the treatment of incapacitating mucocutaneous extrahepatic manifestations of chronic HCV infection in patients with contraindication or no access to the approved antiviral treatments.