Linear programing formulation of a high temporal and technological resolution integrated energy system model for the energy transition.

Models with a wide technological representation of energy systems can hardly adopt hourly resolutions to study the energy transition towards low-carbon technologies due to extended problem size. This compromises the model's ability to address the challenges of variable renewable energy sources and the cost-effectiveness of cross-sectoral flexibility options. This methodology presents a linear program model formulation that simultaneously adopts different temporal representations for different parts of the problem to overcome this issue. For instance, all electricity activities and their infrastructure representation require hourly constraints to better replicate system feasibility. The operation of gaseous networks is settled out with daily constraints. The balancing of the other activities of the system is represented with yearly constraints. Furthermore, the methodology adopts an hourly formulation to represent in detail 6 cross-sectoral flexibility archetypes: heat and power cogeneration, demand shedding, demand response, storage, smart charging and electric vehicles. The model can successfully solve the transition problem from 2020 to 2050 in 5-year intervals with more than 700 technologies and 140 activities (including the electricity dispatch of the Netherlands and 20 European nodes) in less than 6 hours with a normal computer. • Different temporal scales for the representation of different activities in the energy system. • A high-resolution hourly description for the formulation of cross-sectoral flexibility in integrated energy models.

Integral analysis of environmental and economic performance of combined agricultural intensification & bioenergy production in the Orinoquia region.

Agricultural intensification is a key strategy to help meet increasing demand for food and bioenergy. It has the potential to reduce direct and indirect land use change (LUC) and associated environmental impacts while contributing to a favorable economic performance of the agriculture sector. We conduct an integral analysis of environmental and economic impacts of LUC from projected agricultural intensification and bioenergy production in the Orinoquia region in 2030. We compare three agricultural intensification scenarios (low, medium, high) and a reference scenario, which assumes a business-as-usual development of agricultural production. The results show that with current inefficient management or with only very little intensification between 26% and 93% of the existing natural vegetation areas will be converted to agricultural land to meet increasing food demand. This results in the loss of biodiversity by 53% and increased water consumption by 111%. In the medium and high scenarios, the intensification allows meeting increased food demand within current agricultural lands and even generating surplus land which can be used to produce bioenergy crops. This results in the reduction of biodiversity loss by 8-13% with medium and high levels of intensification compared to the situation in 2018. Also, a positive economic performance is observed, stemming primarily from intensification of cattle production and additional energy crop production. Despite increasing irrigation efficiency in more intensive production systems, the water demand for perennial crops and cattle production over the dry season increases significantly, thus sustainable management practices that target efficient water use are needed. Agricultural productivity improvements, particularly for cattle production, are crucial for reducing the pressure on natural areas from increasing demand for both food products and bioenergy. This implies targeted investments in the agricultural sector and integrated planning of land use. Our results showed that production intensification in the Orinoquia region is a mechanism that could reduce the pressure on natural land and its associated environmental and economic impacts.

The development of a new crop growth model SwitchFor for yield mapping of switchgrass.

Switchgrass is a promising energy crop has the potential to mitigate global warming and energy security, improve local ecology and generate profit. Its quantitative traits, such as biomass productivity and environmental adaptability, are determined by genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) or response of genotypes grown across different target environments. To simulate the yield of switchgrass outside its original habitat, a genotype-specific growth model, SwitchFor that captures GEI was developed by parameterising the MiscanFor model. Input parameters were used to describe genotype-specific characteristics under different soil and climate conditions, which enables the model to predict the yield in a wide range of environmental and climate conditions. The model was validated using global field trail data and applied to estimate the switchgrass yield potentials on the marginal land of the Loess Plateau in China. The results suggest that upland and lowland switchgrass have significant differences in the spatial distribution of the adaptation zone and site-specific biomass yield. The area of the adaption zone of upland switchgrass was 4.5 times of the lowland ecotype's. The yield difference between upland and lowland ecotypes ranges from 0 to 34 Mg ha-1. The weighted average yield of the lowland ecotype (20 Mg ha-1) is significantly higher than the upland type (5 Mg ha-1). The optimal yield map, generated by comparing the yield of upland and lowland ecotypes based on 1 km2 grid locations, illustrates that the total yield potential of the optimal switchgrass is 61.6-106.4 Tg on the marginal land of the Loess Plateau, which is approximately twice that of the individual ecotypes. Compared with the existing models, the accuracy of the yield prediction of switchgrass is significantly improved by using the SwitchFor model. This spatially explicit and cultivar-specific model provides valuable information on land management and crop breeding and a robust and extendable framework for yield mapping of other cultivars.

Spatial and temporal analysis of cumulative environmental effects of offshore wind farms in the North Sea basin.

The North Sea basin is one of the busiest maritime areas globally with a considerable number of anthropogenic pressures impacting the functioning of the marine ecosystem. Due to growing EU ambitions for the deployment of large offshore wind farm projects (OWF), as part of the 2050 renewable energy roadmap, there is a key need for a holistic understanding of OWF potential impacts on the marine ecosystem. We propose a holistic Cumulative Effect Assessment methodology, applied using a geo-spatial open-source software, to assess impacts of OWF related pressures on selected seabed habitats, fish, seabird and mammal species. We take into account pressures specific to the three OWF development phases, spanning 1999-2050, for the entire North Sea basin. Our results underline 2022 as the peak year of cumulative impacts for the approved OWFs, followed by a considerable increase in potential impacts of the planned 212GWs, by 2050. The spatio-temporal analysis of the OWF environmental impacts presents the shift between highly impacted areas over the studied timeline and distinguishes between concentrated areas of high impacts (S-E of UK) and dispersed areas of high impacts (Germany). Our results can inform decision-makers and the OWF industry in a joint effort to mitigate the environmental impacts of future large OWF developments.

Spatiotemporal assessment of farm-gate production costs and economic potential of Miscanthus × giganteus, Panicum virgatum L., and Jatropha grown on marginal land in China.

Spatially explicit farm-gate production costs and the economic potential of three types of energy crops grown on available marginal land in China for 2017 and 2040 were investigated using a spatial accounting method and construction of cost-supply curves. The average farm-gate cost from all available marginal land was calculated as 32.9 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 27.5 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 32.4 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 909 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. The costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass were predicted to decrease by approximately 11%-15%, whereas the cost of Jatropha was expected to increase by 5% in 2040. The cost of Jatropha varies significantly from 193 to 9,477 CNY/GJ across regions because of the huge differences in yield across regions. The economic potential of the marginal land was calculated as 28.7 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus Mode, 4.0 EJ/year at a cost of less than 30 CNY/GJ for Switchgrass Mode, 29.6 EJ/year at a cost of less than 25 CNY/GJ for Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode, and 0.1 EJ/year at a cost of less than 500 CNY/GJ for Jatropha Mode in 2017. It is not feasible to develop Jatropha production on marginal land based on existing technologies, given its high production costs. Therefore, the Miscanthus & Switchgrass Mode is the most economical way, because it achieves the highest economic potential compared with other modes. The sensitivity analysis showed that the farm-gate costs of Miscanthus and switchgrass are most sensitive to uncertainties associated with yield reduction and harvesting costs, while, for Jatropha, the unpredictable yield has the greatest impact on its farm-gate cost. This study can help policymakers and industrial stakeholders make strategic and tactical bioenergy development plans in China (exchange rate in 2017: 1€ = 7.63ï¿¥; all the joules in this paper are higher heat value).

Life-cycle analysis of greenhouse gas emissions from renewable jet fuel production.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of renewable jet fuel (RJF) is considered an important emission mitigation measure for the aviation industry. This study compares the well-to-wake (WtWa) greenhouse gas (GHG) emission performance of multiple RJF conversion pathways and explores the impact of different co-product allocation methods. The insights obtained in this study are of particular importance if RJF is included as an emission mitigation instrument in the global Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA). RESULTS: Fischer-Tropsch pathways yield the highest GHG emission reduction compared to fossil jet fuel (86-104%) of the pathways in scope, followed by Hydrothermal Liquefaction (77-80%) and sugarcane- (71-75%) and corn stover-based Alcohol-to-Jet (60-75%). Feedstock cultivation, hydrogen and conversion inputs were shown to be major contributors to the overall WtWa GHG emission performance. The choice of allocation method mainly affects pathways yielding high shares of co-products or producing co-products which effectively displace carbon intensive products (e.g., electricity). CONCLUSIONS: Renewable jet fuel can contribute to significant reduction of aviation-related GHG emissions, provided the right feedstock and conversion technology are used. The GHG emission performance of RJF may be further improved by using sustainable hydrogen sources or applying carbon capture and storage. Based on the character and impact of different co-product allocation methods, we recommend using energy and economic allocation (for non-energy co-products) at a global level, as it leverages the universal character of energy allocation while adequately valuing non-energy co-products.

Re-assessment of net energy production and greenhouse gas emissions avoidance after 40 years of photovoltaics development.

Since the 1970s, installed solar photovoltaic capacity has grown tremendously to 230 gigawatt worldwide in 2015, with a growth rate between 1975 and 2015 of 45%. This rapid growth has led to concerns regarding the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of photovoltaics production. We present a review of 40 years of photovoltaics development, analysing the development of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions associated with photovoltaics production. Here we show strong downward trends of environmental impact of photovoltaics production, following the experience curve law. For every doubling of installed photovoltaic capacity, energy use decreases by 13 and 12% and greenhouse gas footprints by 17 and 24%, for poly- and monocrystalline based photovoltaic systems, respectively. As a result, we show a break-even between the cumulative disadvantages and benefits of photovoltaics, for both energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, occurs between 1997 and 2018, depending on photovoltaic performance and model uncertainties.

Linking carbon stock change from land-use change to consumption of agricultural products: A review with Indonesian palm oil as a case study.

Numerous analyses have been performed to quantitatively link carbon stock change caused by land-use change (CSC-LUC) to consumption of agricultural products, but results differ significantly, even for studies focussing on the same region or product. This is due to the different focuses and interpretations of the links between direct drivers and underlying causes of CSC-LUC, which can be translated into differences in key functions, i.e. specific methods, algorithms and parameters embedded in the analysis. Using the example of Indonesian palm oil production (often associated with CSC-LUC), this paper carries out a meta-analysis of 12 existing studies, determines the different settings for the key functions embedded in consumption-based CSC-LUC studies and discussed their implications for policymaking. It identifies the underlying reasons of adopting different settings within the eight key functions and their advantages and trade-offs. Examples are the way of determining how deforestation is linked to oil palm, and the inclusion of non-agriculture and non-productive drivers in the accounting to weight their roles in CSC-LUC in comparison to palm oil consumption. Following that, the quantitative results from the selected studies were processed and harmonised in terms of unit, allocation mechanism, allocation key and amortisation period. This resulting in ranges of 0.1-3.8 and -0.1-15.7 tCO2/t crude palm oil for historical and projection studies, respectively. It was observed that CSC-LUC allocated to palm oil is typically lower when propagating effects and non-agricultural or non-productive drivers were accounted for. Values also greatly differ when marginal and average allocation mechanisms were employed. Conclusively, individual analyses only answer part of the question about CSC-LUC drivers and have their own strengths and weaknesses. Since the context can be very different, using quantitative results from a single study for accounting purposes in policymaking is not recommended. Instead, insights from different studies should be combined, e.g. the relative role of logging and oil palm or the contribution to CSC-LUC in regional and global perspectives.

Linking carbon stock change from land-use change to consumption of agricultural products: Alternative perspectives.

Agricultural expansion driven by growing demand has been a key driver for carbon stock change as a consequence of land-use change (CSC-LUC). However, its relative role compared to non-agricultural and non-productive drivers, as well as propagating effects were not clearly addressed. This study contributed to this subject by providing alternative perspectives in addressing these missing links. A method was developed to allocate historical CSC-LUC to agricultural expansions by land classes (products), trade, and end use. The analysis for 1995-2010 leads to three key trends: (i) agricultural land degradation and abandonment is found to be a major (albeit indirect) driver for CSC-LUC, (ii) CSC-LUC is spurred by the growth of cross-border trade, (iii) non-food use (excluding liquid biofuels) has emerged as a significant contributor of CSC-LUC in the 2000's. In addition, the study demonstrated that exact values of CSC-LUC at a single spatio-temporal point may change significantly with different methodological settings. For example, CSC-LUC allocated to 'permanent oil crops' changed from 0.53 Pg C (billion tonne C) of carbon stock gain to 0.11 Pg C of carbon stock loss when spatial boundaries were changed from global to regional. Instead of comparing exact values for accounting purpose, key messages for policymaking were drawn from the main trends. Firstly, climate change mitigation efforts pursued through a territorial perspective may ignore indirect effects elsewhere triggered through trade linkages. Policies targeting specific commodities or types of consumption are also unable to quantitatively address indirect CSC-LUC effects because the quantification changes with different arbitrary methodological settings. Instead, it is recommended that mobilising non-productive or under-utilised lands for productive use should be targeted as a key solution to avoid direct and indirect CSC-LUC.

Analysis of biophysical and anthropogenic variables and their relation to the regional spatial variation of aboveground biomass illustrated for North and East Kalimantan, Borneo.

BACKGROUND: Land use and land cover change occurring in tropical forest landscapes contributes substantially to carbon emissions. Better insights into the spatial variation of aboveground biomass is therefore needed. By means of multiple statistical tests, including geographically weighted regression, we analysed the effects of eight variables on the regional spatial variation of aboveground biomass. North and East Kalimantan were selected as the case study region; the third largest carbon emitting Indonesian provinces. RESULTS: Strong positive relationships were found between aboveground biomass and the tested variables; altitude, slope, land allocation zoning, soil type, and distance to the nearest fire, road, river and city. Furthermore, the results suggest that the regional spatial variation of aboveground biomass can be largely attributed to altitude, distance to nearest fire and land allocation zoning. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that in this landscape, aboveground biomass could not be explained by one single variable; the variables were interrelated, with altitude as the dominant variable. Spatial analyses should therefore integrate a variety of biophysical and anthropogenic variables to provide a better understanding of spatial variation in aboveground biomass. Efforts to minimise carbon emissions should incorporate the identified factors, by 1) the maintenance of lands with high AGB or carbon stocks, namely in the identified zones at the higher altitudes; and 2) regeneration or sustainable utilisation of lands with low AGB or carbon stocks, dependent on the regeneration capacity of the vegetation. Low aboveground biomass densities can be found in the lowlands in burned areas, and in non-forest zones and production forests.

Biomass production in agroforestry and forestry systems on salt-affected soils in South Asia: exploration of the GHG balance and economic performance of three case studies.

This study explores the greenhouse gas balance and the economic performance (i.e. net present value (NPV) and production costs) of agroforestry and forestry systems on salt-affected soils (biosaline (agro)forestry) based on three case studies in South Asia. The economic impact of trading carbon credits generated by biosaline (agro)forestry is also assessed as a potential additional source of income. The greenhouse gas balance shows carbon sequestration over the plantation lifetime of 24 Mg CO2-eq. ha(-1) in a rice-Eucalyptus camaldulensis agroforestry system on moderately saline soils in coastal Bangladesh (case study 1), 6 Mg CO2-eq. ha(-1) in the rice-wheat- Eucalyptus tereticornis agroforestry system on sodic/saline-sodic soils in Haryana state, India (case study 2), and 96 Mg CO2-eq. ha(-1) in the compact tree (Acacia nilotica) plantation on saline-sodic soils in Punjab province of Pakistan. The NPV at a discount rate of 10% is 1.1 k€ ha(-1) for case study 1, 4.8 k€ ha(-1) for case study 2, and 2.8 k€ ha(-1) for case study 3. Carbon sequestration translates into economic values that increase the NPV by 1-12% in case study 1, 0.1-1% in case study 2, and 2-24% in case study 3 depending on the carbon credit price (1-15 € Mg(-1) CO2-eq.). The analysis of the three cases indicates that the economic performance strongly depends on the type and severity of salt-affectedness (which affect the type and setup of the agroforestry system, the tree species and the biomass yield), markets for wood products, possibility of trading carbon credits, and discount rate.

Potential of bioethanol as a chemical building block for biorefineries: preliminary sustainability assessment of 12 bioethanol-based products.

The aim of this study is to present and apply a quick screening method and to identify the most promising bioethanol derivatives using an early-stage sustainability assessment method that compares a bioethanol-based conversion route to its respective petrochemical counterpart. The method combines, by means of a multi-criteria approach, quantitative and qualitative proxy indicators describing economic, environmental, health and safety and operational aspects. Of twelve derivatives considered, five were categorized as favorable (diethyl ether, 1,3-butadiene, ethyl acetate, propylene and ethylene), two as promising (acetaldehyde and ethylene oxide) and five as unfavorable derivatives (acetic acid, n-butanol, isobutylene, hydrogen and acetone) for an integrated biorefinery concept.

A global conversation about energy from biomass: the continental conventions of the global sustainable bioenergy project.

The global sustainable bioenergy (GSB) project was formed in 2009 with the goal of providing guidance with respect to the feasibility and desirability of sustainable, bioenergy-intensive futures. Stage 1 of this project held conventions with a largely common format on each of the world's continents, was completed in 2010, and is described in this paper. Attended by over 400 persons, the five continental conventions featured presentations, breakout sessions, and drafting of resolutions that were unanimously passed by attendees. The resolutions highlight the potential of bioenergy to make a large energy supply contribution while honouring other priorities, acknowledge the breadth and complexity of bioenergy applications as well as the need to take a systemic approach, and attest to substantial intra- and inter-continental diversity with respect to needs, opportunities, constraints and current practice relevant to bioenergy. The following interim recommendations based on stage 1 GSB activities are offered: - Realize that it may be more productive, and also more correct, to view the seemingly divergent assessments of bioenergy as answers to two different questions rather than the same question. Viewed in this light, there is considerably more scope for reconciliation than might first be apparent, and it is possible to be informed rather than paralysed by divergent assessments.- Develop established and advanced bioenergy technologies such that each contributes to the other's success. That is, support and deploy in the near-term meritorious, established technologies in ways that enhance rather than impede deployment of advanced technologies, and support and deploy advanced technologies in ways that expand rather than contract opportunities for early adopters and investors.- Be clear in formulating policies what mix of objectives are being targeted, measure the results of these policies against these objectives and beware of unintended consequences.- Undertake further exploration of land efficiency levers and visions for multiply-beneficial bioenergy deployment. This should be unconstrained by current practices, since we cannot hope to achieve a sustainable and a secure future by continuing the practices that have led to the unsustainable and insecure present. It should also be approached from a global perspective, based on the best science available, and consider the diverse realities, constraints, needs and opportunities extant in different regions of the world.The future trajectory of the GSB project is also briefly considered.

Quantitative risk assessment of CO2 transport by pipelines--a review of uncertainties and their impacts.

A systematic assessment, based on an extensive literature review, of the impact of gaps and uncertainties on the results of quantitative risk assessments (QRAs) for CO(2) pipelines is presented. Sources of uncertainties that have been assessed are: failure rates, pipeline pressure, temperature, section length, diameter, orifice size, type and direction of release, meteorological conditions, jet diameter, vapour mass fraction in the release and the dose-effect relationship for CO(2). A sensitivity analysis with these parameters is performed using release, dispersion and impact models. The results show that the knowledge gaps and uncertainties have a large effect on the accuracy of the assessed risks of CO(2) pipelines. In this study it is found that the individual risk contour can vary between 0 and 204 m from the pipeline depending on assumptions made. In existing studies this range is found to be between <1m and 7.2 km. Mitigating the relevant risks is part of current practice, making them controllable. It is concluded that QRA for CO(2) pipelines can be improved by validation of release and dispersion models for high-pressure CO(2) releases, definition and adoption of a universal dose-effect relationship and development of a good practice guide for QRAs for CO(2) pipelines.

Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions from waste: conclusions and strategies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group III (Mitigation).

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from post-consumer waste and wastewater are a small contributor (about 3%) to total global anthropogenic GHG emissions. Emissions for 2004-2005 totalled 1.4 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) relative to total emissions from all sectors of 49 Gt CO2-eq year(-1) [including carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and F-gases normalized according to their 100-year global warming potentials (GWP)]. The CH4 from landfills and wastewater collectively accounted for about 90% of waste sector emissions, or about 18% of global anthropogenic methane emissions (which were about 14% of the global total in 2004). Wastewater N2O and CO2 from the incineration of waste containing fossil carbon (plastics; synthetic textiles) are minor sources. Due to the wide range of mature technologies that can mitigate GHG emissions from waste and provide public health, environmental protection, and sustainable development co-benefits, existing waste management practices can provide effective mitigation of GHG emissions from this sector. Current mitigation technologies include landfill gas recovery, improved landfill practices, and engineered wastewater management. In addition, significant GHG generation is avoided through controlled composting, state-of-the-art incineration, and expanded sanitation coverage. Reduced waste generation and the exploitation of energy from waste (landfill gas, incineration, anaerobic digester biogas) produce an indirect reduction of GHG emissions through the conservation of raw materials, improved energy and resource efficiency, and fossil fuel avoidance. Flexible strategies and financial incentives can expand waste management options to achieve GHG mitigation goals; local technology decisions are influenced by a variety of factors such as waste quantity and characteristics, cost and financing issues, infrastructure requirements including available land area, collection and transport considerations, and regulatory constraints. Existing studies on mitigation potentials and costs for the waste sector tend to focus on landfill CH4 as the baseline. The commercial recovery of landfill CH4 as a source of renewable energy has been practised at full scale since 1975 and currently exceeds 105 Mt CO2-eq year(-1). Although landfill CH4 emissions from developed countries have been largely stabilized, emissions from developing countries are increasing as more controlled (anaerobic) landfilling practices are implemented; these emissions could be reduced by accelerating the introduction of engineered gas recovery, increasing rates of waste minimization and recycling, and implementing alternative waste management strategies provided they are affordable, effective, and sustainable. Aided by Kyoto mechanisms such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Joint Implementation (JI), the total global economic mitigation potential for reducing waste sector emissions in 2030 is estimated to be > 1000 Mt CO2-eq (or 70% of estimated emissions) at costs below 100 US$ t(-1) CO2-eq year(-1). An estimated 20-30% of projected emissions for 2030 can be reduced at negative cost and 30-50% at costs < 20 US$ t(-) CO2-eq year(-1). As landfills produce CH4 for several decades, incineration and composting are complementary mitigation measures to landfill gas recovery in the short- to medium-term--at the present time, there are > 130 Mt waste year(-1) incinerated at more than 600 plants. Current uncertainties with respect to emissions and mitigation potentials could be reduced by more consistent national definitions, coordinated international data collection, standardized data analysis, field validation of models, and consistent application of life-cycle assessment tools inclusive of fossil fuel offsets.