Risk of hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission by anti-HCV-negative blood components in Austria and Germany.

In order to estimate the residual risk of transfusion-transmitted HCV infection, we have analyzed data from transfusion centers in Austria (Vienna) and Germany (Göttingen) from 1990 to 1995. In Vienna, the seroprevalence (RIBA-confirmed third-generation anti-HCV tests) was 0.28% in first-time donors (FTD) and the incidence of seroconversion in repeat donors (RD) was 0.049 (per 100 person years) from 1994 to 1995. In Göttingen, the prevalence of a PCR-confirmed positive third-generation anti-HCV test was 0.22% in FTDs and the incidence was 0.093 (per 100 persons years). A continuous decline of the rate of anti-HCV-positive donations and donors was observed with first- and second-generation anti-HCV tests in the years 1990-1994. The introduction of the third-generation anti-HCV test resulted in increased numbers of anti-HCV positive repeat donors, mainly due to false-positive results. Only 9% of anti-HCV-positive repeat donors were either PCR positive or RIBA positive or or indeterminate. Based on a mathematical model which takes (a) the window period, (b) the false-negative rate of anti-HCV tests, and (c) human and operational errors into consideration, we have calculated the residual risk of HCV infection. We used a window period of 74 days, a sensitivity of 98%, and an error rate of .1%. The residual risk (for third-generation anti-HCV test-negative blood components) was calculated to be 1:9000 (95% confidence interval 1:16390-1:6210) and 1:4800 (95% confidence interval 1:40000-1:1320) for Vienna and Göttingen, respectively, in 1994 and 1995. Since this conservative approach does not take the impact of ALAT screening into account, the actual risk is probably lower.

Risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission by anti-HIV-negative blood components in Germany and Austria.

In order to estimate the residual risk of transfusion-transmitted HIV infection we have analyzed the data from two transfusion centers in Austria (Vienna) and Germany (Göttingen) from 1985 to 1994. In Vienna, an incidence of 1:42,000 positive anti-HIV tests in repeat donors and a prevalence of 1:7000 in first-time donors were found in 1993. In Göttingen, the indicence was 1:67,000 and the prevalence 1:7900 from 1985 to 1993. Based on a mathematical model which takes (a) the window period and (b) the false-negative rate of anti-HIV tests, as well as (c) human and operational errors into consideration, we have calculated the residual risk of HIV infection. The residual risk (third generation anti-HIV test) was found to be 1:520,000 (95% confidence interval 1:1340,000-1:210,000), and 1:900,000 (95% confidence interval 1:2340,000-1:380,000) for Vienna and Göttingen, respectively, in 1993. Look-back studies from 1985 till 1994 revealed transfusion-transmitted HIV infections in three recipients (for 1.9 million donations in Vienna) and one recipient (for 160,000 donations in Göttingen) of blood components. Based on our model, as well as on prevalence and incidence rates of HIV infection, it is also possible to predict the efficacy of additional measures introduced to further decrease the risk of transfusion-transmitted HIV infection through blood components.