Pressure from insect-resistant maize on protected butterflies and moths.

Intensification in agriculture affects many insect species, including butterflies. Insect-resistant crops, such as Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis) maize, which produces a toxin active against Lepidoptera, are an alternative to insecticide sprays. Genetically modified crops are regulated in most countries and require an environmental risk assessment. In the European Union, such assessments include the use of simulation models to predict the effects on nontarget Lepidoptera (NTL). To support the assessment of protected NTL, we extended an individual-based, stochastic, spatially explicit mathematical model (LepiX) to include a wider range of exposure scenarios, a species-sensitivity distribution, and an option for repeated exposure of individuals. We applied the model to transgenic maize DAS-1507, which expresses a high concentration of Bt toxin in pollen that may be consumed by NTL larvae on their host plants nearby. Even in the most conservative scenario without repeated exposure, mortality estimates for highly sensitive species ranged from 41% to 6% at distances of 10-1000 m from the nearest maize field. Repeated exposure can cause additional mortality and thus is relevant for the overall risk assessment. Uncertainties in both exposure and ecotoxicity estimates strongly influenced the predicted mortalities. Care should be taken to include these uncertainties in the model scenarios used for decision-making. In accordance with other modeling results, our simulations demonstrated that mean mortality may not be safe for protected species. With its high pollen expression, DAS-1507 maize may pose risks to sensitive and protected butterfly and moth species that may be difficult to manage. High expression of Bt toxin in pollen is unnecessary for controlling target pests. Consequently, we suggest that Bt maize with high pollen expression not be cultivated in regions where protected butterflies are to be conserved.

La intensificación en la agricultura afecta a muchas especies de insectos, incluyendo a las mariposas. Los cultivos resistentes a los insectos, como el maíz Bt (Bacillus thuringiensis), el cual produce una toxina activa contra los lepidópteros, son una alternativa a los insecticidas. Los cultivos genéticamente modificados (GM) están regulados en la mayoría de los países y requieren de una evaluación de riesgo ambiental. En la Unión Europea (EU), dichas evaluaciones incluyen el uso de modelos de simulación para pronosticar los efectos sobre los lepidópteros no objetivo (LNO). Para apoyar a la evaluación de LNO protegidos, extendimos un modelo matemático espacialmente explícito, estocástico y basado en el individuo (LepiX) para incluir una mayor gama de escenarios de exposición, una distribución de la sensibilidad de las especies y una opción para la exposición repetida de los individuos. Aplicamos el modelo al maíz transgénico DAS­1507, el cual expresa una alta concentración de toxina Bt en el polen que puede ser consumido por las larvas de LNO en una planta hospedera cercana. Incluso en el escenario más conservador sin una exposición repetida, las estimaciones de mortalidad para las especies altamente sensibles variaron entre el 41% y el 6% en distancias de 10­1000 m a partir del campo de maíz más cercano. La exposición repetida puede causar mortalidad adicional y por lo tanto es relevante para la evaluación general del riesgo. La incertidumbre en las estimaciones de la exposición y la ecotoxicidad influyeron fuertemente sobre la mortalidad pronosticada. Se debe tener cuidado de incluir estas incertidumbres en los escenarios modelados usados para la toma de decisiones. De acuerdo con los resultados de otros modelos, nuestras simulaciones demostraron que la mortalidad media podría no ser segura para las especies protegidas. Con su alta producción de polen, el maíz DAS­1507 podría representar un riesgo difícil de manejar para las especies de mariposas y polillas sensibles y protegidas. No se necesita una expresión elevada de la toxina Bt en el polen para controlar a las plagas. En consecuencia, sugerimos que no se cultive el maíz Bt con una alta producción de polen en las regiones en donde se busca conservar a las mariposas protegidas. Presión del maíz resistente a insectos sobre mariposas y polillas protegidas.

Long-term response of forest productivity to climate change is mostly driven by change in tree species composition.

Climate change affects ecosystem functioning directly through impacts on plant physiology, resulting in changes of global productivity. However, climate change has also an indirect impact on ecosystems, through changes in the composition and diversity of plant communities. The relative importance of these direct and indirect effects has not been evaluated within a same generic approach yet. Here we took advantage of a novel approach for disentangling these two effects in European temperate forests across a large climatic gradient, through a large simulation-based study using a forest succession model. We first showed that if productivity positively correlates with realized tree species richness under a changed climate, indirect effects appear pivotal to understand the magnitude of climate change impacts on forest productivity. We further detailed how warmer and drier conditions may affect the diversity-productivity relationships (DPRs) of temperate forests in the long term, mostly through effects on species recruitment, ultimately enhancing or preventing complementarity in resource use. Furthermore, losing key species reduced the strength of DPRs more severely in environments that are becoming climatically harsher. By disentangling direct and indirect effects of climate change on ecosystem functioning, these findings explain why high-diversity forests are expected to be more resilient to climate change.

Review on environmental alterations propagating from aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems.

Terrestrial inputs into freshwater ecosystems are a classical field of environmental science. Resource fluxes (subsidy) from aquatic to terrestrial systems have been less studied, although they are of high ecological relevance particularly for the receiving ecosystem. These fluxes may, however, be impacted by anthropogenically driven alterations modifying structure and functioning of aquatic ecosystems. In this context, we reviewed the peer-reviewed literature for studies addressing the subsidy of terrestrial by aquatic ecosystems with special emphasis on the role that anthropogenic alterations play in this water-land coupling. Our analysis revealed a continuously increasing interest in the coupling of aquatic to terrestrial ecosystems between 1990 and 2014 (total: 661 studies), while the research domains focusing on abiotic (502 studies) and biotic (159 studies) processes are strongly separated. Approximately 35% (abiotic) and 25% (biotic) of the studies focused on the propagation of anthropogenic alterations from the aquatic to the terrestrial system. Among these studies, hydromorphological and hydrological alterations were predominantly assessed, whereas water pollution and invasive species were less frequently investigated. Less than 5% of these studies considered indirect effects in the terrestrial system e.g. via food web responses, as a result of anthropogenic alterations in aquatic ecosystems. Nonetheless, these very few publications indicate far-reaching consequences in the receiving terrestrial ecosystem. For example, bottom-up mediated responses via soil quality can cascade over plant communities up to the level of herbivorous arthropods, while top-down mediated responses via predatory spiders can cascade down to herbivorous arthropods and even plants. Overall, the current state of knowledge calls for an integrated assessment on how these interactions within terrestrial ecosystems are affected by propagation of aquatic ecosystem alterations. To fill these gaps, we propose a scientific framework, which considers abiotic and biotic aspects based on an interdisciplinary approach.

Temporal stability in forest productivity increases with tree diversity due to asynchrony in species dynamics.

Theory predicts a positive relationship between biodiversity and stability in ecosystem properties, while diversity is expected to have a negative impact on stability at the species level. We used virtual experiments based on a dynamic simulation model to test for the diversity-stability relationship and its underlying mechanisms in Central European forests. First our results show that variability in productivity between stands differing in species composition decreases as species richness and functional diversity increase. Second we show temporal stability increases with increasing diversity due to compensatory dynamics across species, supporting the biodiversity insurance hypothesis. We demonstrate that this pattern is mainly driven by the asynchrony of species responses to small disturbances rather than to environmental fluctuations, and is only weakly affected by the net biodiversity effect on productivity. Furthermore, our results suggest that compensatory dynamics between species may enhance ecosystem stability through an optimisation of canopy occupancy by coexisting species.

Tree species richness promotes productivity in temperate forests through strong complementarity between species.

Understanding the link between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) is pivotal in the context of global biodiversity loss. Yet, long-term effects have been explored only weakly, especially for forests, and no clear evidence has been found regarding the underlying mechanisms. We explore the long-term relationship between diversity and productivity using a forest succession model. Extensive simulations show that tree species richness promotes productivity in European temperate forests across a large climatic gradient, mostly through strong complementarity between species. We show that this biodiversity effect emerges because increasing species richness promotes higher diversity in shade tolerance and growth ability, which results in forests responding faster to small-scale mortality events. Our study generalises results from short-term experiments in grasslands to forest ecosystems and demonstrates that competition for light alone induces a positive effect of biodiversity on productivity, thus providing a new angle for explaining BEF relationships.

Distributed delays stabilize ecological feedback systems.

We consider the effect of distributed delays in predator-prey models and ecological food webs. Whereas the occurrence of delays in population dynamics is usually regarded a destabilizing factor leading to the extinction of species, we here demonstrate complementarily that delay distributions yield larger stability regimes than single delays. Food webs with distributed delays closely resemble nondelayed systems in terms of ecological stability measures. Thus, we state that dependence of dynamics on multiple instances in the past is an important, but so far underestimated, factor for stability in dynamical systems.