A new model for prediction of the age of onset and penetrance for Huntington's disease based on CAG length.

Huntington's disease (HD) is a neurodegenerative disorder caused by an unstable CAG repeat. For patients at risk, participating in predictive testing and learning of having CAG expansion, a major unanswered question shifts from "Will I get HD?" to "When will it manifest?" Using the largest cohort of HD patients analyzed to date (2913 individuals from 40 centers worldwide), we developed a parametric survival model based on CAG repeat length to predict the probability of neurological disease onset (based on motor neurological symptoms rather than psychiatric onset) at different ages for individual patients. We provide estimated probabilities of onset associated with CAG repeats between 36 and 56 for individuals of any age with narrow confidence intervals. For example, our model predicts a 91% chance that a 40-year-old individual with 42 repeats will have onset by the age of 65, with a 95% confidence interval from 90 to 93%. This model also defines the variability in HD onset that is not attributable to CAG length and provides information concerning CAG-related penetrance rates.

Recombination and mutation during long-term gastric colonization by Helicobacter pylori: estimates of clock rates, recombination size, and minimal age.

The bacterium Helicobacter pylori colonizes the gastric mucosa of half of the human population, resulting in chronic gastritis, ulcers, and cancer. We sequenced ten gene fragments from pairs of strains isolated sequentially at a mean interval of 1.8 years from 26 individuals. Several isolates had acquired small mosaic segments from other H. pylori or point mutations. The maximal mutation rate, the import size, and the frequency of recombination were calculated by using a Bayesian model. The calculations indicate that the last common ancestor of H. pylori existed at least 2,500-11,000 years ago. Imported mosaics have a median size of 417 bp, much smaller than for other bacteria, and recombination occurs frequently (60 imports spanning 25,000 bp per genome per year). Thus, the panmictic population structure of H. pylori results from very frequent recombination during mixed colonization by unrelated strains.

Fit genotypes and escape variants of subgroup III Neisseria meningitidis during three pandemics of epidemic meningitis.

The genetic variability at six polymorphic loci was examined within a global collection of 502 isolates of subgroup III, serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis. Nine "genoclouds" were identified, consisting of genotypes that were isolated repeatedly plus 48 descendent genotypes that were isolated rarely. These genoclouds have caused three pandemic waves of disease since the mid-1960s, the most recent of which was imported from East Asia to Europe and Africa in the mid-1990s. Many of the genotypes are escape variants, resulting from positive selection that we attribute to herd immunity. Despite positive selection, most escape variants are less fit than their parents and are lost because of competition and bottlenecks during spread from country to country. Competition between fit genotypes results in dramatic changes in population composition over short time periods.

Measurement of mutational flow implies both a high new-mutation rate for Huntington disease and substantial underascertainment of late-onset cases.

We describe a new approach for analysis of the epidemiology of progressive genetic disorders that quantifies the rate of progression of the disease in the population by measuring the mutational flow. The framework is applied to Huntington disease (HD), a dominant neurological disorder caused by the expansion of a CAG-trinucleotide sequence to >35 repeats. The disease is 100% penetrant in individuals with > or = 42 repeats. Measurement of the flow from disease alleles provides a minimum estimate of the flow in the whole population and implies that the new mutation rate for HD in each generation is > or = 10% of currently known cases (95% confidence limits 6%-14%). Analysis of the pattern of flow demonstrates systematic underascertainment for repeat lengths <44. Ascertainment falls to <50% for individuals with 40 repeats and to <5% for individuals with 36-38 repeats. Clinicians should not assume that HD is rare outside known pedigrees or that most cases have onset at age <50 years.