Establishment and verification of a nomogram prediction model of hypertension risk in Xinjiang Kazakhs.

ABSTRACT: Hypertension is the main risk factor for cardiovascular and renal diseases. It is of great importance to develop effective risk prediction models to identify high-risk groups of hypertension. This study is to establish and verify a nomogram model for predicting the risk of hypertension among Kazakh herders in Xinjiang, China.This is a prospective cohort study. Totally, 5327 Kazakh herders from the Nanshan pastoral area of Xinjiang were enrolled. They were randomly divided into the modeling set of 3729 cases (70%) and the validation set of 1598 cases (30%). In the modeling set, univariate analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multivariate Logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of hypertension, and a nomogram prediction model was constructed. We then validated the model in the validation set, and evaluated the accuracy of the model using receiver operating characteristic and calibration curve.Based on univariate analysis, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis, we identified 14 independent predictors of hypertension in the modeling set, including age, smoking, alcohol consumption, baseline body mass index, baseline diastolic blood pressure, baseline systolic blood pressure, daily salt intake, yak-butter intake, daily oil intake, fruit and vegetable intake, low-density lipoprotein, cholesterol, abdominal circumference, and family history. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the modeling set and the verification set was 0.803 and 0.809, respectively. Moreover, the calibration curve showed a higher agreement between the nomogram prediction and the actual observation of hypertension.The risk prediction nomogram model has good predictive ability and could be used as an effective tool for the risk prediction of hypertension among Kazakh herders in Xinjiang.

Phenylethanol Glycosides Protect Myocardial Hypertrophy Induced by Abdominal Aortic Constriction via ECE-1 Demethylation Inhibition and PI3K/PKB/eNOS Pathway Enhancement.

Phenylethanol glycosides (CPhGs) are the core material basis of pharmacological activity in Cistanche tubulosa and have a variety of pharmacological effects. However, it is unclear whether CPhGs have an ameliorative effect on pressure overload-induced myocardial hypertrophy. In this study, male SD rats weighing (200 ± 20) g were established cardiac hypertrophy models by abdominal aortic coarctation (AAC). After operation, the rats were gavaged with corresponding medicine for 6 weeks (CPhGs 125, 250, and 500 mg/kg/d and valsartan 8.3 mg/kg/d). Echocardiography, heart weight index (HWI), cross-sectional area of cardiomyocytes (CSCA), fibrosis area, plasma endothelin 1(ET-1), and proinflammatory factors levels were detected. Our results showed that different CPhGs dosage decreased left ventricular posterior wall thickness (LVPWT), left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVED), HWI, CSCA, fibrosis area, ET-1, proinflammatory factors, arterial natriuretic peptide (ANP), brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), endothelin converting enzyme 1(ECE-1) mRNA levels, cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2), high mobility group box 1 (HMGB-1) protein levels, and ECE-1 demethylation level while increasing left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEF), left ventricular fractional shortening (LVFS), phosphorylated phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (p-PI3K), phosphorylated protein kinase B (p-PKB), and phosphorylated endothelial nitric oxide synthetase (p-eNOS). The indexes of CPhGs 250 and 500 mg/kg group were significantly different from AAC group; compared with valsartan group (AV), the indexes of CPhGs 500 mg/kg group were not significantly different. In conclusion, CPhGs ameliorated myocardial hypertrophy rats by AAC, which may be related to ECE-1 demethylation inhibition and PI3K/PKB/eNOS enhancement.