Understanding Patterns of Adherence to Antifibrotic Treatment in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Insights from an Italian Prospective Cohort Study.

Background: Pirfenidone and Nintedanib have significantly improved the prognosis of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), reducing mortality risk and exacerbations. This study aimed to analyze antifibrotic treatment utilization and its association with clinical outcomes (i.e., acute exacerbation or death) during 2014-2021 in newly diagnosed IPF patients, using Healthcare Utilization Databases of the Marche Region, Italy. Methods: The first 12-month adherence to antifibrotic was estimated using the Proportion of Days Covered (PDC), defining adherence as PDC ≥ 75%. State Sequence Analysis over the initial 52 weeks of treatment was used to identify adherence patterns. The role of adherence patterns on acute exacerbations/death, adjusted by demographic, clinical features, and monthly adherence after the 52-week period (time-dependent variable), was assessed with Cox regression. Results: Among 667 new IPF cases, 296 received antifibrotic prescriptions, with 62.8% being adherent in the first year. Three antifibrotic utilization patterns emerged-high adherence (37.2%), medium adherence (42.5%), and low adherence (20.3%)-with median PDCs of 95.3%, 79.5%, and 18.6%, respectively. These patterns did not directly influence three-year mortality/exacerbation probability, but sustained adherence reduced risk over time. Conclusions: Good adherence was observed in in this population-based study, emphasizing the importance of continuous antifibrotics therapy over time to mitigate adverse outcomes.

Incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: evidence from an 8-year population-based study in Central Italy based on healthcare utilization databases.

BACKGROUND: Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disorder with a high multidimensional burden, with an obscure etiopathogenesis. METHODS: We designed a longitudinal, population-based study of people residing in Central Italy (Marche Region) who were beneficiaries of the National Health System. People with an unprecedented ALS hospitalization (335.20 ICD-9 CM) or tagged with an ALS exemption between 2014 and 2021 were considered incident cases. ALS cases residing in the region for <3 years or with an active ALS exemption or hospitalized for ALS before 2014 were excluded. We used secondary sources to identify new ALS diagnoses. The regional referral center for ALS's database was used to test the accuracy of secondary sources in detecting cases. ALS mean incidence was compared to that reported in similar studies conducted in Italy. The incidence rate trend adjusted by sex and age was evaluated using the Poisson regression model. RESULTS: We detected 425 new ALS cases (median age: 70y) in the 2014-2021 period, with a mean incidence of 3.5:100,000 py (95%CI: 3.2-3.8; M:F = 1.2), similar to that reported in similar studies conducted in Italy. No trend was observed during 2014-2019. After including 2020-2021 in the model, we observed a mean decrease in incidence of 5.8% (95% CI 2.0%; 9.5%, p = 0.003). CONCLUSION: We show a decrease in the incidence rate of ALS in Marche, during the 2014-2021 period, as a possible outcome of a delayed neurological assessment and diagnosis during the pandemic. An ad hoc developed identification algorithm, based on healthcare utilization databases, is a valuable tool to assess the health impact of global contingencies.

Preoperative anxiety management in children. Benefits of humanoid robots: an experimental study.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to determine whether the use of a humanoid robot (Estrabot) could reduce preoperative anxiety levels in children. Methods: An experimental study was conducted at Azienda Ospedaliero Universitaria delle Marche Hospital, involving the Pediatric Surgery ward and the Operating Room (OR). Patients aged between 2 and 14 years who underwent minor surgery were included. The Instruments used were the Children's Emotional Manifestation Scale to evaluate anxiety levels, and Estrabot, a humanoid robot that interacts with people. Medical records between April and May 2023 were analyzed and the data was anonymous. The level of anxiety is extrapolated in Pediatric Surgery during the administration of oral pre-medication, and in the Operating Room, during the induction of anesthesia. Patients were divided into an intervention group treated with Estrabot, and a control group without a robot. Results: The population consists of 60 patients (86.7% male) with a median (IQR) age of 6 (4-8) years. The median (IQR) anxiety score during premedication was 7 (5-11), while the median (IQR) anxiety score during anesthesia was 6 (5-10). A significantly lower level of anxiety was reported in the Estrabot group. Patients in the Estrabot group had significantly lower anxiety levels in different age groups. Conclusion: A humanoid robot can reduce preoperative anxiety levels in children during premedication and the induction of anesthesia.

Effects of the supplementation with a multispecies probiotic on clinical and laboratory recovery of children with newly diagnosed celiac disease: A randomized, placebo-controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the efficacy of a multispecies probiotic on clinical and laboratory recovery of children with celiac disease (CeD) at diagnosis. METHODS: Children with newly diagnosed CeD entered a randomized double-blind placebo-controlled trial. A gluten-free diet (GFD) plus a multispecies probiotic or placebo were administered for 12 weeks. Growth, laboratory, and clinical parameters were recorded at enrollment, after 3 and 6 months of follow-up. RESULTS: Overall, 96 children completed the study: 49 in group A (placebo) and 47 in group B (probiotic). A significant increase of BMI-Z score was found in both groups after 3 and 6 months of treatment (p < 0.001), however the increase of BMI-Z score was significantly higher and faster in Group B than in Group A. Other clinical and laboratory parameters improved in both groups after 3 and 6 months (p<0.001), but no difference was found between the groups and a comparable time trend was observed in both groups. CONCLUSIONS: Treatment with a multispecies probiotic induced a higher and faster increase of BMI in children with newly diagnosed CeD. The mechanism of this positive effect remains to be elucidated.

Combining Bayesian Calibration and Copula Models for Age Estimation.

Accurately estimating and predicting chronological age from some anthropometric characteristics of an individual without an identity document can be crucial in the context of a growing number of forced migrants. In the related literature, the prediction of chronological age mostly relies upon the use of a single predictor, which is usually represented by a dental/skeletal maturity index, or multiple independent ordinal predictor (stage of maturation). This paper is the first attempt to combine a robust method to predict chronological age, such as Bayesian calibration, and the use of multiple continuous indices as predictors. The combination of these two aspects becomes possible due to the implementation of a complex statistical tool as the copula. Comparing the forecasts from our copula-based method with predictions from an independent model and two single predictor models, we showed that the accuracy increased.

Surgical Epicondylar Axis of the Knee and Its Relationship to the Axial Tibia Alignment in Knee Osteoarthritis: The Concept of Proximal Twist Tibia.

The proximal tibia and distal femur are intimately linked with the biomechanics of the knee and they are to be considered in total knee arthroplasty (TKA). The aim of the present study was to evaluate the proximal tibial torsion (PTT) in relation to surgical epicondylar axis (SEA) in a healthy cohort and a pathological cohort affected by knee osteoarthritis (OA). We retrospectively analyzed computed tomography of OA knee of 59 patients before they underwent TKA and nonarthritic knee of 39 patients as control. Posterior condylar angle (PCAn), femoral tibial torsion (SEA-proximal tibial condyle [PTC] and SEA-PTT), PTT (PTC-PTT and posterior condylar axes [PCAx]-PTC), and distance between tibial tuberosity and the trochlear groove (TT-TG) were measured. No differences were found for gender, age, TT-TG, and PCAn angles. Statistically significant differences were found for all the other angles considered. Significant correlation was found between tibial torsion and SEA-PTT angles, between PCAx-PTC and SEA-PTC, between SEA-PTT and SEA-PTC, and between PCAx-PTC and SEA-PTT. All measures, except TT-TG and PCAn angles, showed high validity (area under the curve [AUC] > 75%) in associating with OA, with SEA-PTT displaying the highest validity with an AUC of 94.38%. This is the first study to find significant differences in terms of proximal tibia geometry and anatomy between nonarthritic and OA knees. From our results, we reported that OA group was characterized by a greater internal rotation of tibia with respect to SEAs compared with control group. Since the design of the study cannot evaluate a cause-effect relationship, further studies need to be performed to assess the potential implications of these anatomic differences for knee OA and arthroplasty surgeries.

Prognosis and Survival in Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis in the Era of Antifibrotic Therapy in Italy: Evidence from a Longitudinal Population Study Based on Healthcare Utilization Databases.

The aim was to evaluate the determinants of acute exacerbation (AE) and death in new cases of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) using administrative databases in the Marche Region. Adults at their first prescription of antifibrotics or hospitalization with a diagnosis of IPF occurring in 2014-2019 were considered as new cases. Multiple Cox regression was used to estimate the risk of AE and of all-cause mortality adjusted by demographic and clinical characteristics, stratifying patients according to antifibrotic treatment. Overall, 676 new cases of IPF were identified and 276 deaths and 248 AE events occurred. In never-treated patients, the risk of AE was higher in patients with poor health conditions at diagnosis; the risk of death was higher in males, in patients aged ≥75 and in those with poor health conditions at baseline. The increasing number of AEs increased the risk of death in treated and never-treated patients. Within the limits of an observational study based on secondary data, the combined use of healthcare administrative databases allows the accurate analysis of progression and survival of IPF from the beginning of the antifibrotic therapy era, suggesting that timely and early diagnosis is critical to prescribing the most suitable treatment to increase survival and maintain a healthy life expectancy.

Is Primary Bone Marrow Edema of the Knee Associated with Thyroid Disorders? A Retrospective Clinical Study.

Primary bone marrow edema (BME) of the knee is still an elusive condition. This retrospective study was undertaken to gain insight into its characteristic features. The records of 48 patients with primary BME of the knee diagnosed by magnetic resonance imaging were reviewed. Demographic data, medical history, current medications, pain type, smoking and drinking habits, allergies, occupation, sports practiced, environmental factors, and life events predating symptom onset were examined. Data analysis demonstrated that 56.3% of patients had experienced a stressful event before BME pain onset and that 50% suffered from thyroid disorders. Standard conservative treatment resulted in pain resolution irrespective of the use of anti-inflammatories. However, most patients reported new persistent symptoms: dysesthesia/hypoesthesia on palpation in the skin area overlying the previous edema and a reduced ipsilateral patellar reflex. To our knowledge, this is the first study characterizing a substantial cohort of patients with BME. We found that middle-aged, sedentary, and slightly overweight women smokers are the typical patients with primary BME of the knee. The appearance and persistence of cutaneous dysesthesia/hypoesthesia at the site of the earlier lesion and ipsilateral patellar hyporeflexia implicate an autonomous nervous system dysfunction in BME pathogenesis and warrant further investigation.

Quantification of Carbonic Anhydrase Inhibitors and Metabolites in Urine and Hair of Patients and Their Relatives.

Carbonic anhydrase inhibitors (CAIs) are prescription drugs also used in doping to dilute urine samples and tamper with urinalyses. Dorzolamide, brinzolamide, and acetazolamide are prohibited by the World Anti-Doping Agency. Detecting CAIs and their metabolites in biological samples is crucial to documenting misuse in doping. We quantified dorzolamide, brinzolamide, acetazolamide, and their metabolites in the urine and hair of 88 patients under treatment for ocular hypertension or glaucoma. Samples of the patients' relatives were analyzed to assess potential for accidental exposure. After washing, 25 mg hair was incubated with an acidic buffer at 100 °C for 1 h. After cooling and centrifugation, the supernatant was analyzed by ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (UHPLC-MS/MS). Urine (100 µL) was diluted and centrifuged before UHPLC-MS/MS analysis. Run time was 8 min through a reverse-phase column with a mobile phase gradient. MS/MS analysis was performed in a multiple-reaction monitoring mode after positive electrospray ionization. Median urinary concentration was 245 ng/mL (IQR: 116.2-501 ng/mL) for dorzolamide, 81.1 ng/mL (IQR: 35.9-125.3 ng/mL) for N-deethyl-dorzolamide, 0.77 ng/mL (IQR: 0.64 ng/mL-0.84 ng/mL) for N-acetyl-dorzolamide, 38.9 ng/mL (IQR: 20.4-79.2 ng/mL) for brinzolamide, and 72.8 ng/mL (IQR: 20.7-437.3 ng/mL) for acetazolamide. Median hair concentration was 0.48 ng/mg (IQR: 0.1-0.98 ng/mg) for dorzolamide, 0.07 ng/mg (IQR: 0.06-0.08 ng/mg) for N-deethyl-dorzolamide, 0.40 ng/mL (IQR: 0.13-1.95 ng/mL) for brinzolamide. Acetazolamide was detected in only one hair sample. Dorzolamide and brinzolamide were detected in the urine of three and one relatives, respectively. Cutoff concentrations of urinary dorzolamide and brinzolamide are necessary to preclude false positives due to contamination or passive exposure. We reported the first concentrations of brinzolamide in hair.

Occurrence of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis in Italy: Latest Evidence from Real-World Data.

The aim of the study was to evaluate the trend in the incidence of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) in a real-world setting of the Marche region, a region of Central Italy, between 2014 and 2019. This observational prospective study was based on administrative databases of hospital discharges and drug prescriptions. All adult residents in the Marche Region with a first prescription of antifibrotic drugs, or a first hospitalization with a diagnosis of IPF during the study period, were identified as incident cases of IPF. A multiple Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate the IPF incidence trend, adjusted for age, sex, and health conditions. The mean incidence rate was 9.8 cases per 100,000 person-years. A significant increasing trend of 6% per year was observed. The incidence rates were significantly higher in males than females, older subjects, and those with poorer health conditions. To our knowledge, this is the first study evaluating incidences of IPF over a 6-year period in Italy, combining hospital discharge and drug prescription databases. The study highlights that the combined use of two secondary sources is a reliable strategy to accurately identify new cases of IPF when the appropriate disease registry is lacking.

Pachychoroid spectrum disease and choriocapillary flow analysis in patients with Cushing disease: an optical coherence tomography angiography study.

PURPOSE: To investigate the presence of pachychoroid spectrum disease (PSD) in patients with Cushing disease (CD) and to evaluate subfoveal choroidal thickness (SFCT) and choriocapillary flow using spectral domain OCT (SD-OCT) with the enhanced depth imaging (EDI) and optical coherence tomography angiography (OCT-A). METHODS: Thirty-two patients with CD and 32 age- and sex-matched healthy volunteers were enrolled in this observational study. All participants had a complete ophthalmic examination including SD-OCT with EDI and OCT-A, and were subjected to the Perceived Stress Scale test (PSS). All patients with CD had hormone test including 24-h urinary-free cortisol (UFC) and plasma adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH). We compared SFCT and choriocapillary vessel density (CVD) between the two groups and evaluated the presence of PSD. We investigated the association of hormone level, SFTC, CVD with the presence of CD; the association between the hormone level, SFTC, CVD, the CD disease activity, and duration with the presence of PSD in CD patients; and the association between SFTC and CVD with the hormone level, the CD disease activity, and duration in CD patients. RESULTS: Higher values of SFCT and CVD were associated with CD (ß: 0.028, 95% CI: 0.014; 0.041; ß: 0.912, 95%CI: 0.205; 1.62, respectively). Twelve patients with CD (37.5%) reported a PSD in at least one eye, whereas no subject was found in control group (p < 0.001); in particular, 11 CD patients (34%) presented pachychoroid pigment epitheliopathy (PPE) and 1 CD patient (3%) presented polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy/aneurysmal type 1 neovascularization (PCV/AT1). In patients with CD, a significant positive association between SFCT and PSD was found (ß: 0.010, 95% CI 0.001; 0.019). CONCLUSION: A chronic state of hypercortisolism may have direct implications on the choroid. Patients with CD had higher SFCT values and a significant change in the choriocapillary flow compared to healthy controls. Moreover, PSD was observed only in CD patients.

Mapping European research networks providing health data: results from the InfAct Joint Action on health information.

BACKGROUND: Research networks offer multidisciplinary expertise and promote information exchange between researchers across Europe. They are essential for the European Union's (EU) health information system as providers of health information and data. The aim of this mapping exercise was to identify and analyze EU research networks in terms of health data collection methods, quality assessment, availability and accessibility procedures. METHODS: A web-based search was performed to identify EU research networks that are not part of international organizations (e.g., WHO-Europe, OECD) and are involved in collection of data for health monitoring or health system performance assessment. General characteristics of the research networks (e.g., data sources, representativeness), quality assessment procedures, availability and accessibility of health data were collected through an ad hoc extraction form. RESULTS: Fifty-seven research networks, representative at national, international or regional level, were identified. In these networks, data are mainly collected through administrative sources, health surveys and cohort studies. Over 70% of networks provide information on quality assessment of their data collection procedures. Most networks share macrodata through articles and reports, while microdata are available from ten networks. A request for data access is required by 14 networks, of which three apply a financial charge. Few networks share data with other research networks (8/49) or specify the metadata-reporting standards used for data description (9/49). CONCLUSIONS: Improving health information and availability of high quality data is a priority in Europe. Research networks could play a major role in tackling health data and information inequalities by enhancing quality, availability, and accessibility of health data and data sharing across European networks.

Coping with interoperability in the development of a federated research infrastructure: achievements, challenges and recommendations from the JA-InfAct.

BACKGROUND: Information for Action! is a Joint Action (JA-InfAct) on Health Information promoted by the EU Member States and funded by the European Commission within the Third EU Health Programme (2014-2020) to create and develop solid sustainable infrastructure on EU health information. The main objective of this the JA-InfAct is to build an EU health information system infrastructure and strengthen its core elements by a) establishing a sustainable research infrastructure to support population health and health system performance assessment, b) enhancing the European health information and knowledge bases, as well as health information research capacities to reduce health information inequalities, and c) supporting health information interoperability and innovative health information tools and data sources. METHODS: Following a federated analysis approach, JA-InfAct developed an ad hoc federated infrastructure based on distributing a well-defined process-mining analysis methodology to be deployed at each participating partners' systems to reproduce the analysis and pool the aggregated results from the analyses. To overcome the legal interoperability issues on international data sharing, data linkage and management, partners (EU regions) participating in the case studies worked coordinately to query their real-world healthcare data sources complying with a common data model, executed the process-mining analysis pipeline on their premises, and shared the results enabling international comparison and the identification of best practices on stroke care. RESULTS: The ad hoc federated infrastructure was designed and built upon open source technologies, providing partners with the capacity to exploit their data and generate dashboards exploring the stroke care pathways. These dashboards can be shared among the participating partners or to a coordination hub without legal issues, enabling the comparative evaluation of the caregiving activities for acute stroke across regions. Nonetheless, the approach is not free of a number of challenges that have been solved, and new challenges that should be addressed in the eventual case of scaling up. For that eventual case, 12 recommendations considering the different layers of interoperability have been provided. CONCLUSION: The proposed approach, when successfully deployed as a federated analysis infrastructure, such as the one developed within the JA-InfAct, can concisely tackle all levels of the interoperability requirements from organisational to technical interoperability, supported by the close collaboration of the partners participating in the study. Any proposal for extension, should require further thinking on how to deal with new challenges on interoperability.

Factors associated with quality of life in Italian children and adolescents with IBD.

Improving the quality of life (QoL) is crucial in the management of pediatric inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We aimed to (1) Validate the IMPACT-III questionnaire in Italian IBD children; (2) explore factors associated to QoL in pediatric IBD. Internal consistency, concurrent validity, discriminant validity and reproducibility of the Italian version of the IMPACT-III questionnaire was measured in IBD children/adolescents in 8 centers. Associations between patient and disease characteristics and the IMPACT-III domains were analyzed through quantile regression analysis. The IMPACT-III questionnaire, collected in 282 children with IBD (median age: 14.8 years; IQR 12.4-16.4) showed a median total score of 76 (IQR 67-83). Female gender, active disease and age were negatively associated with the total IMPACT-III score. Specifically, female gender was negatively associated with the Bowel/Systemic Symptoms, Emotional and Treatment domain scores, while disease activity was significantly associated with Bowel Symptoms and Treatment/Interventions reported QoL. The IMPACT- III showed good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficient = 0.87, 95% CI 0.85-0.89) and reproducibility (Concordance Correlation Coefficient = 0.66, 95% CI 0.57-0.74). In Italian children with IBD active disease, female gender and adolescence are associated to a worse QoL, indicating the need of more attention in this subgroup of young patients. IMPACT-III questionnaire is a reliable instrument to measure QoL in Italian children.

Variation of plasma citrulline as a predictive factor for weaning off long-term parenteral nutrition in children with neonatal short bowel syndrome.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Long-term parenteral nutrition (PN) is the mainstay of the therapeutic strategy in intestinal failure (IF) due to neonatal short bowel syndrome (SBS). Our aim was to identify prognostic factors for PN weaning and to assess if measuring plasma citrulline concentrations over time could account for the intestinal adaptation in progress. METHODS: This retrospective study included children with neonatal SBS with surgical measurement of the residual bowel length and repeated plasma citrulline assessments during a 4-year follow-up. The degree of IF was assessed by the PN dependency index (PN caloric intake/Resting energy expenditure). The analysis was carried out according to SBS anatomical groups: end-jejunostomy (type 1), jejuno-colic (type 2) and jejuno-ileal anastomosis (type 3). RESULTS: Fifty-five patients (8 type 1, 27 type 2, 20 type 3) were included. None of the patients with SBS type 1, 11 (41%) with type 2 and 11 (55%) with type 3 were weaned off during the follow-up period. Plasma citrulline levels significantly increased with time in patients who were finally weaned off PN; conversely, the levels did not consistently increase in patients who were still on PN at the end of the study period. There was an inverse relationship between plasma citrulline levels and the PN dependency index. The increasing citrulline levels had a positive effect on the probability of weaning, 2.7 times higher for each point increase in citrulline. No significant effect of age and residual bowel length at baseline was found. CONCLUSION: The increased plasma citrulline level over time in addition to the SBS anatomical type is a reliable marker for subsequent PN weaning. The prediction of PN weaning assessed solely by the residual bowel length or a single measurement of citrulline is insufficient and should also take into account the anatomical type of SBS and repeated measurements of plasma citrulline levels.

Quality of life in long term survivors of pediatric intestinal transplantation compared with liver transplantation and home parenteral nutrition: A prospective single-center pilot study.

Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) after intestinal transplantation (IT) is important, as many psychological troubles have been reported in these patients on the long term. Our aim was to assess and compare HRQOL of patients after IT to patients after liver transplantation (LT) or on home parenteral nutrition (HPN) for intestinal failure. A cross-sectional study included patients and their parents between 10 and 18 years of age, on HPN for more than 2 years, or who underwent IT or LT, with a graft survival longer than 2 years. Quality of life was explored by Child Health Questionnaire. Thirteen children-parents dyads after IT, 10 after LT, and eight children on HPN completed the survey. Patients were a median age of 14 years old, a median of 10 years post-transplantation or on HPN. Patients after IT scored lower than patients after LT or on HPN in "social limitations due to behavioral difficulties" and in "behavior." They scored higher than those on HPN in "global health." Parents of children after IT scored lower than those after LT in many domains. No relevant correlation with clinical data was found. Our study showed the multi-level impact of IT on quality of life of patients and their parents. It highlights the importance of a regular psychological follow-up for patients, but also of a psychological support for families. Helping the patients to overcome the difficulties at adolescence may improve their mental health in adulthood.

Biomarkers of Browning in Cold Exposed Siberian Adults.

Cold-exposure promotes energy expenditure by inducing brown adipose tissue (BAT) thermogenesis, which over time, is also sustained by browning, the appearance, or increase, of brown-like cells into white fat depots. Identification of circulating markers reflecting BAT activity and browning is crucial to study this phenomenon and its triggers, also holding possible implications for the therapy of obesity and metabolic diseases. Using RT-qPCR, we evaluated the peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) expression profile of regulators of BAT activity (CIDEA, PRDM16), white adipocytes browning (HOXC9 and SLC27A1), and fatty acid ß-oxidation (CPT1A) in 150 Siberian healthy miners living at extremely cold temperatures compared to 29 healthy subjects living in thermoneutral conditions. Anthropometric parameters, glucose, and lipid profiles were also assessed. The cold-exposed group showed significantly lower weight, BMI, hip circumference, and PBMC expression of CIDEA, but higher expression of HOXC9 and higher circulating glucose compared to controls. Within the cold-exposed group, BMI, total cholesterol, and the atherogenic coefficient were lower in individuals exposed to low temperatures for a longer time. In conclusion, human PBMC expresses the brown adipocytes marker CIDEA and the browning marker HOXC9, which, varying according to cold-exposure, possibly reflect changes in BAT activation and white fat browning.

Segmented Bayesian calibration approach for estimating age in forensic science.

Forensic age estimation is receiving growing attention from researchers in the last few years. Accurate estimates of age are needed both for identifying real age in individuals without any identity document and assessing it for human remains. The methods applied in such context are mostly based on radiological analysis of some anatomical districts and entail the use of a regression model. However, estimating chronological age by regression models leads to overestimated ages in younger subjects and underestimated ages in older ones. We introduced a full Bayesian calibration method combined with a segmented function for age estimation that relied on a Normal distribution as a density model to mitigate this bias. In this way, we were also able to model the decreasing growth rate in juveniles. We compared our new Bayesian-segmented model with other existing approaches. The proposed method helped producing more robust and precise forecasts of age than compared models while exhibited comparable accuracy in terms of forecasting measures. Our method seemed to overcome the estimation bias also when applied to a real data set of South-African juvenile subjects.