Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Genetic analysis provides insights into species distribution and population structure in East Atlantic horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus and T. capensis).

Two sister species of horse mackerel (Trachurus trachurus and T. capensis) are described that are intensively harvested in East Atlantic waters. To address long-standing uncertainties as to their respective geographical ranges, overlap and intraspecific population structure this study combined genetic (mitochondrial DNA and microsatellite) analysis and targeted sampling of the hitherto understudied West African coast. mtDNA revealed two reciprocally monophyletic clades corresponding to each species with interspecies nuclear differentiation supported by FST values. The T. trachurus clade was found across the north-east Atlantic down to Ghana but was absent from Angolan and South African samples. The T. capensis clade was found only in South Africa, Angola and a single Ghanaian individual. This pattern suggests that both species may overlap in the waters around Ghana. The potential for cryptic hybridization and/or indiscriminate harvesting of both species in the region is discussed. For T. capensis mtDNA supports high gene flow across the Benguela upwelling system, which fits with the species' ecology. The data add to evidence of a lack of significant genetic structure throughout the range of T. trachurus though the assumption of demographic panmixia is cautioned against. For both species, resolution of stock recruitment heterogeneity relevant to fishery management, as well as potential hybridization, will require more powerful genomic analyses.

Mathematical description of the uptake of hydrocarbons in jet fuel into the stratum corneum of human volunteers.

The objective of this research was to develop a mathematical description of uptake of aromatic and aliphatic hydrocarbons into the stratum corneum of human skin in vivo. A simple description based on Fick's laws of diffusion was used to predict the spatiotemporal variation of naphthalene, 1- and 2-methylnaphthalene, undecane, and dodecane in the stratum corneum of human volunteers. The estimated values of the diffusion coefficients for each chemical were comparable to values predicted using in vitro skin systems and biomonitoring studies. These results demonstrate the value of measuring dermal exposure using the tape-strip technique and the importance of quantifying of dermal uptake.