Interspecific social dominance networks reveal mechanisms promoting coexistence in sympatric charr in Hokkaido, Japan.

Coexistence of species requires equalizing mechanisms that minimize fitness differences, which are balanced by stabilizing mechanisms that enhance negative intraspecific interactions versus interspecific ones. Here, we develop a simple theoretical framework that allows measuring the relative strength of intraspecific versus interspecific competition in dominance hierarchies. We use it to evaluate mechanisms promoting coexistence between two congeneric charr that compete for foraging positions, which strongly influence density-dependent growth and survival. Agonistic interactions (n = 761) among 71 Dolly Varden Salvelinus malma and whitespotted charr Salvelinus leucomaenis were measured by snorkelling in two pools in the sympatric zone of a Hokkaido stream during two summers. Interspecific dominance hierarchies, analysed using three methods, were closely correlated with fish length but the species treated each other equally. Ranks for the most dominant fish in each pool, determined directly by knockout experiments, were also virtually identical to ranks by length. Similarly, exponential random graph modelling of the social networks provided no evidence that either species was dominant over the other. Instead, larger fish were more likely to win contests, especially over fish of the next lower ranks. These results demonstrated that the two species were nearly ecological equivalents in accessing key resources in this sympatric zone. Nearly identical growth and stable densities over 4 years further supported this inference, although Dolly Varden were a minority (29% of the assemblage), a sign of some fitness difference. Detailed foraging observations coupled with two concurrent studies revealed an effective stabilizing mechanism. Dolly Varden shifted to feeding directly from the benthos when drifting invertebrates declined, a behaviour enhanced by morphological character displacement, thereby partitioning food resources and enhancing intraspecific competition while avoiding agonistic encounters with whitespotted charr. The plurality of evidence indicates that fitness differences between these ecologically equivalent species are small in this local assemblage, and balanced by resource partitioning, a modest stabilizing mechanism that promotes coexistence. The theoretical framework presented here is a useful tool to evaluate the strength of interspecific versus intraspecific competition, which combined with information on trade-offs in ecological performance can contribute to a mechanistic understanding of species coexistence.

Magnitude and direction of stream-forest community interactions change with timescale.

Networks of direct and indirect biotic interactions underpin the complex dynamics and stability of ecological systems, yet experimental and theoretical studies often yield conflicting evidence regarding the direction (positive or negative) or magnitude of these interactions. We revisited pioneering data sets collected at the deciduous forested Horonai Stream and conducted ecosystem-level syntheses to demonstrate that the direction of direct and indirect interactions can change depending on the timescale of observation. Prior experimental studies showed that terrestrial prey that enter the stream from the adjacent forest caused positive indirect effects on aquatic invertebrates during summer by diverting fish consumption. Seasonal and annual estimates of secondary production and organic matter flows along food web pathways demonstrate that this seasonal input of terrestrial invertebrate prey increases production of certain fish species, reversing the indirect effect on aquatic invertebrates from positive at the seasonal timescale to negative at the annual timescale. Even though terrestrial invertebrate prey contributed 54% of the annual organic matter flux to fishes, primarily during summer, fish still consumed 98% of the aquatic invertebrate annual production, leading to top-down control that is not revealed in short-term experiments and demonstrating that aquatic prey may be a limiting resource for fishes. Changes in the direction or magnitude of interactions may be a key factor creating nonlinear or stabilizing feedbacks in complex systems, and these dynamics can be revealed by merging experimental and comparative approaches at different scales.

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change.

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade-1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade-1, and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade-1. Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

Groundwater declines are linked to changes in Great Plains stream fish assemblages.

Groundwater pumping for agriculture is a major driver causing declines of global freshwater ecosystems, yet the ecological consequences for stream fish assemblages are rarely quantified. We combined retrospective (1950-2010) and prospective (2011-2060) modeling approaches within a multiscale framework to predict change in Great Plains stream fish assemblages associated with groundwater pumping from the United States High Plains Aquifer. We modeled the relationship between the length of stream receiving water from the High Plains Aquifer and the occurrence of fishes characteristic of small and large streams in the western Great Plains at a regional scale and for six subwatersheds nested within the region. Water development at the regional scale was associated with construction of 154 barriers that fragment stream habitats, increased depth to groundwater and loss of 558 km of stream, and transformation of fish assemblage structure from dominance by large-stream to small-stream fishes. Scaling down to subwatersheds revealed consistent transformations in fish assemblage structure among western subwatersheds with increasing depths to groundwater. Although transformations occurred in the absence of barriers, barriers along mainstem rivers isolate depauperate western fish assemblages from relatively intact eastern fish assemblages. Projections to 2060 indicate loss of an additional 286 km of stream across the region, as well as continued replacement of large-stream fishes by small-stream fishes where groundwater pumping has increased depth to groundwater. Our work illustrates the shrinking of streams and homogenization of Great Plains stream fish assemblages related to groundwater pumping, and we predict similar transformations worldwide where local and regional aquifer depletions occur.

Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change.

Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing models (model uncertainty), and uncertainty in future climate conditions (climate uncertainty) to produce site-specific frequency distributions of occurrence probabilities across a species' range. We illustrated the method by forecasting suitable habitat for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Interior Columbia River Basin, USA, under recent and projected 2040s and 2080s climate conditions. The 95% interval of total suitable habitat under recent conditions was estimated at 30.1-42.5 thousand km; this was predicted to decline to 0.5-7.9 thousand km by the 2080s. Projections for the 2080s showed that the great majority of stream segments would be unsuitable with high certainty, regardless of the climate data set or bull trout model employed. The largest contributor to uncertainty in total suitable habitat was climate uncertainty, followed by parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty. Our approach makes it possible to calculate a full distribution of possible outcomes for a species, and permits ready graphical display of uncertainty for individual locations and of total habitat.

Fragmentation and thermal risks from climate change interact to affect persistence of native trout in the Colorado River basin.

Impending changes in climate will interact with other stressors to threaten aquatic ecosystems and their biota. Native Colorado River cutthroat trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus) are now relegated to 309 isolated high-elevation (>1700 m) headwater stream fragments in the Upper Colorado River Basin, owing to past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss. Predicted changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and resulting changes in stochastic physical disturbances (i.e., wildfire, debris flow, and channel drying and freezing) could further threaten the remaining CRCT populations. We developed an empirical model to predict stream temperatures at the fragment scale from downscaled climate projections along with geomorphic and landscape variables. We coupled these spatially explicit predictions of stream temperature with a Bayesian Network (BN) model that integrates stochastic risks from fragmentation to project persistence of CRCT populations across the upper Colorado River basin to 2040 and 2080. Overall, none of the populations are at risk from acute mortality resulting from high temperatures during the warmest summer period. In contrast, only 37% of populations have a ≥90% chance of persistence for 70 years (similar to the typical benchmark for conservation), primarily owing to fragmentation. Populations in short stream fragments <7 km long, and those at the lowest elevations, are at the highest risk of extirpation. Therefore, interactions of stochastic disturbances with fragmentation are projected to be greater threats than warming for CRCT populations. The reason for this paradox is that past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss have restricted most CRCT populations to high-elevation stream fragments that are buffered from the potential consequences of warming, but at risk of extirpation from stochastic events. The greatest conservation need is for management to increase fragment lengths to forestall these risks.

Colonization and extinction in dynamic habitats: an occupancy approach for a Great Plains stream fish assemblage.

Despite the importance of habitat in determining species distribution and persistence, habitat dynamics are rarely modeled in studies of metapopulations. We used an integrated habitat-occupancy model to simultaneously quantify habitat change, site fidelity, and local colonization and extinction rates for larvae of a suite of Great Plains stream fishes in the Arikaree River, eastern Colorado, USA, across three years. Sites were located along a gradient of flow intermittency and groundwater connectivity. Hydrology varied across years: the first and third being relatively wet and the second dry. Despite hydrologic variation, our results indicated that site suitability was random from one year to the next. Occupancy probabilities were also independent of previous habitat and occupancy state for most species, indicating little site fidelity. Climate and groundwater connectivity were important drivers of local extinction and colonization, but the importance of groundwater differed between periods. Across species, site extinction probabilities were highest during the transition from wet to dry conditions (range: 0.52-0.98), and the effect of groundwater was apparent with higher extinction probabilities for sites not fed by groundwater. Colonization probabilities during this period were relatively low for both previously dry sites (range: 0.02-0.38) and previously wet sites (range: 0.02-0.43). In contrast, no sites dried or remained dry during the transition from dry to wet conditions, yielding lower but still substantial extinction probabilities (range: 0.16-0.63) and higher colonization probabilities (range: 0.06-0.86), with little difference among sites with and without groundwater. This approach of jointly modeling both habitat change and species occupancy will likely be useful to incorporate effects of dynamic habitat on metapopulation processes and to better inform appropriate conservation actions.

Flow regime, temperature, and biotic interactions drive differential declines of trout species under climate change.

Broad-scale studies of climate change effects on freshwater species have focused mainly on temperature, ignoring critical drivers such as flow regime and biotic interactions. We use downscaled outputs from general circulation models coupled with a hydrologic model to forecast the effects of altered flows and increased temperatures on four interacting species of trout across the interior western United States (1.01 million km(2)), based on empirical statistical models built from fish surveys at 9,890 sites. Projections under the 2080s A1B emissions scenario forecast a mean 47% decline in total suitable habitat for all trout, a group of fishes of major socioeconomic and ecological significance. We project that native cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii, already excluded from much of its potential range by nonnative species, will lose a further 58% of habitat due to an increase in temperatures beyond the species' physiological optima and continued negative biotic interactions. Habitat for nonnative brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis and brown trout Salmo trutta is predicted to decline by 77% and 48%, respectively, driven by increases in temperature and winter flood frequency caused by warmer, rainier winters. Habitat for rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss, is projected to decline the least (35%) because negative temperature effects are partly offset by flow regime shifts that benefit the species. These results illustrate how drivers other than temperature influence species response to climate change. Despite some uncertainty, large declines in trout habitat are likely, but our findings point to opportunities for strategic targeting of mitigation efforts to appropriate stressors and locations.

Species replacement by a nonnative salmonid alters ecosystem function by reducing prey subsidies that support riparian spiders.

Replacement of a native species by a nonnative can have strong effects on ecosystem function, such as altering nutrient cycling or disturbance frequency. Replacements may cause shifts in ecosystem function because nonnatives establish at different biomass, or because they differ from native species in traits like foraging behavior. However, no studies have compared effects of wholesale replacement of a native by a nonnative species on subsidies that support consumers in adjacent habitats, nor quantified the magnitude of these effects. We examined whether streams invaded by nonnative brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) in two regions of the Rocky Mountains, USA, produced fewer emerging adult aquatic insects compared to paired streams with native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii), and whether riparian spiders that depend on these prey were less abundant along streams with lower total insect emergence. As predicted, emergence density was 36% lower from streams with the nonnative fish. Biomass of brook trout was higher than the cutthroat trout they replaced, but even after accounting for this difference, emergence was 24% lower from brook trout streams. More riparian spiders were counted along streams with greater total emergence across the water surface. Based on these results, we predicted that brook trout replacement would result in 6-20% fewer spiders in the two regions. When brook trout replace cutthroat trout, they reduce cross-habitat resource subsidies and alter ecosystem function in stream-riparian food webs, not only owing to increased biomass but also because traits apparently differ from native cutthroat trout.

Invasion versus isolation: trade-offs in managing native salmonids with barriers to upstream movement.

Conservation biologists often face the trade-off that increasing connectivity in fragmented landscapes to reduce extinction risk of native species can foster invasion by non-native species that enter via the corridors created, which can then increase extinction risk. This dilemma is acute for stream fishes, especially native salmonids, because their populations are frequently relegated to fragments of headwater habitat threatened by invasion from downstream by 3 cosmopolitan non-native salmonids. Managers often block these upstream invasions with movement barriers, but isolation of native salmonids in small headwater streams can increase the threat of local extinction. We propose a conceptual framework to address this worldwide problem that focuses on 4 main questions. First, are populations of conservation value present (considering evolutionary legacies, ecological functions, and socioeconomic benefits as distinct values)? Second, are populations vulnerable to invasion and displacement by non-native salmonids? Third, would these populations be threatened with local extinction if isolated with barriers? And, fourth, how should management be prioritized among multiple populations? We also developed a conceptual model of the joint trade-off of invasion and isolation threats that considers the opportunities for managers to make strategic decisions. We illustrated use of this framework in an analysis of the invasion-isolation trade-off for native cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii) in 2 contrasting basins in western North America where invasion and isolation are either present and strong or farther away and apparently weak. These cases demonstrate that decisions to install or remove barriers to conserve native salmonids are often complex and depend on conservation values, environmental context (which influences the threat of invasion and isolation), and additional socioeconomic factors. Explicit analysis with tools such as those we propose can help managers make sound decisions in such complex circumstances.

Invading rainbow trout usurp a terrestrial prey subsidy from native charr and reduce their growth and abundance.

Movements of prey organisms across ecosystem boundaries often subsidize consumer populations in adjacent habitats. Human disturbances such as habitat degradation or non-native species invasions may alter the characteristics or fate of these prey subsidies, but few studies have measured the direct effects of this disruption on the growth and local abundance of predators in recipient habitats. Here we present evidence, obtained from a combined experimental and comparative study in northern Japan, that an invading stream fish usurped the flux of allochthonous prey to a native fish, consequently altering the diet and reducing the growth and abundance of the native species. A large-scale field experiment showed that excluding terrestrial invertebrates that fell into the stream with a mesh greenhouse reduced terrestrial prey in diets of native Dolly Varden charr (Salvelinus malma) by 46-70%, and reduced their growth by 25% over six weeks. However, when nonnative rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were introduced, they monopolized these prey and caused an even greater reduction of terrestrial prey in charr diets of 82-93%, and reduced charr growth by 31% over the same period. Adding both greenhouse and rainbow trout treatments together produced similar results to adding either alone. Results from a comparative field study of six other stream sites in the region corroborated the experimental findings, showing that at invaded sites rainbow trout usurped the terrestrial prey subsidy, causing a more than 75% decrease in the biomass of terrestrial invertebrates in Dolly Varden diets and forcing them to shift their foraging to insects on the stream bottom. Moreover, at sites with even low densities of rainbow trout, biomass of Dolly Varden was more than 75% lower than at sites without rainbow trout. Disruption of resource fluxes between habitats may be a common, but unidentified, consequence of invasions, and an additional mechanism contributing to the loss of native species.

Ecological and evolutionary consequences of biotic homogenization.

Biotic homogenization, the gradual replacement of native biotas by locally expanding non-natives, is a global process that diminishes floral and faunal distinctions among regions. Although patterns of homogenization have been well studied, their specific ecological and evolutionary consequences remain unexplored. We argue that our current perspective on biotic homogenization should be expanded beyond a simple recognition of species diversity loss, towards a synthesis of higher order effects. Here, we explore three distinct forms of homogenization (genetic, taxonomic and functional), and discuss their immediate and future impacts on ecological and evolutionary processes. Our goal is to initiate future research that investigates the broader conservation implications of homogenization and to promote a proactive style of adaptive management that engages the human component of the anthropogenic blender that is currently mixing the biota on Earth.

Distribution of two congeneric charrs in streams of Hokkaido Island, Japan: considering multiple factors across scales.

Salvelinus leucomaenis (white-spotted charr) and S. malma (Dolly Varden) are distributed throughout Hokkaido Island, Japan, but sites where they occur in sympatry are rare. In general, S. malma inhabit upstream reaches and S. leucomaenis extend downstream to the ocean. Factors influencing their distribution were analyzed at four spatial scales ranging from the whole island to individual stream pools. At the island scale, S. leucomaenis were found in the warmer south-west region and at lower altitudes elsewhere, whereas S. malma were found in the colder north-east and at higher altitudes. At a regional scale, the downstream limit of S. malma and upstream limit of S. leucomaenis shifted to lower altitude from south-west to north-east across the island, coincident with the decrease in temperature. Further analysis showed that transition points from S. leucomaenis or sympatry to S. malma in individual watersheds were closely related to an index of cumulative mean monthly temperatures exceeding 5°C. However, at the scale of a single watershed, the transition occurred at different altitudes, gradients, and temperatures in two tributaries, apparently because stream discharge, habitat, and disturbances from floods interacted with these abiotic factors to limit distribution. The two charr species developed interspecific dominance hierarchies in individual pools, and there was strong complementary density compensation among stream pools that could be explained by interspecific competition but not by differences in habitat. However, patterns at watershed and regional scales suggested that interspecific competition interacts with temperature in complex ways. We conclude that the importance of various abiotic and biotic factors in shaping Hokkaido charr distributions depends on the scale at which they are viewed.