The Changing Epidemiological Profile of HIV-1 Subtype B Epidemic in Ukraine.

While HIV-1 subtype B has caused a large epidemic in the Western world, its transmission in Ukraine remains poorly understood. We assessed the genetic diversity of HIV-1 subtype B viruses circulating in Ukraine, characterized the transmission group structure, and estimated key evolutionary and epidemiological parameters. We analyzed 120 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences (including 46 newly generated) sampled from patients residing in 11 regions of Ukraine between 2002 and 2017. Phylogenies were estimated using maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic methods. A Bayesian molecular clock coalescent analysis was used to estimate effective population size dynamics and date the most recent common ancestors of identified clades. A phylodynamic birth-death model was used to estimate the effective reproductive number (Re) of these clades. We identified two phylogenetically distinct predominantly Ukrainian (≥75%) clades of HIV-1 subtype B. We found no significant transmission group structure for either clade, suggesting frequent mixing among transmission groups. The estimated dates of origin of both subtype B clades were around early 1970s, similar to the introduction of HIV-1 subtype A into Ukraine. Re was estimated to be 1.42 [95% highest posterior density (HPD) 1.26-1.56] for Clade 1 and 1.69 (95% HPD 1.49-1.84) for Clade 2. Evidently, the subtype B epidemic in the country is no longer concentrated in specific geographical regions or transmission groups. The study results highlight the necessity for strengthening preventive and monitoring efforts to reduce the further spread of HIV-1 subtype B.

A Phylogenetic Analysis of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Sequences in Kiev: Findings Among Key Populations.

Background: The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic in Ukraine has been driven by a rapid rise among people who inject drugs, but recent studies have shown an increase through sexual transmission. Methods: Protease and reverse transcriptase sequences from 876 new HIV diagnoses (April 2013-March 2015) in Kiev were linked to demographic data. We constructed phylogenetic trees for 794 subtype A1 and 64 subtype B sequences and identified factors associated with transmission clustering. Clusters were defined as ≥2 sequences, ≥80% local branch support, and maximum genetic distance of all sequence pairs in the cluster ≤2.5%. Recent infection was determined through the limiting antigen avidity enzyme immunoassay. Sequences were analyzed for transmitted drug resistance mutations. Results: Thirty percent of subtype A1 and 66% of subtype B sequences clustered. Large clusters (maximum 11 sequences) contained mixed risk groups. In univariate analysis, clustering was significantly associated with subtype B compared to A1 (odds ratio [OR], 4.38 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.56-7.50]); risk group (OR, 5.65 [95% CI, 3.27-9.75]) for men who have sex with men compared to heterosexual males; recent, compared to long-standing, infection (OR, 2.72 [95% CI, 1.64-4.52]); reported sex work contact (OR, 1.93 [95% CI, 1.07-3.47]); and younger age groups compared with age ≥36 years (OR, 1.83 [95% CI, 1.10-3.05] for age ≤25 years). Females were associated with lower odds of clustering than heterosexual males (OR, 0.49 [95% CI, .31-.77]). In multivariate analysis, risk group, subtype, and age group were independently associated with clustering (P < .001, P = .007, and P = .033, respectively). Eighteen sequences (2.1%) indicated evidence of transmitted drug resistance. Conclusions: Our findings suggest high levels of transmission and bridging between risk groups.

A Direct Comparison of Two Densely Sampled HIV Epidemics: The UK and Switzerland.

Phylogenetic clustering approaches can elucidate HIV transmission dynamics. Comparisons across countries are essential for evaluating public health policies. Here, we used a standardised approach to compare the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database and the Swiss HIV Cohort Study while maintaining data-protection requirements. Clusters were identified in subtype A1, B and C pol phylogenies. We generated degree distributions for each risk group and compared distributions between countries using Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) tests, Degree Distribution Quantification and Comparison (DDQC) and bootstrapping. We used logistic regression to predict cluster membership based on country, sampling date, risk group, ethnicity and sex. We analysed >8,000 Swiss and >30,000 UK subtype B sequences. At 4.5% genetic distance, the UK was more clustered and MSM and heterosexual degree distributions differed significantly by the KS test. The KS test is sensitive to variation in network scale, and jackknifing the UK MSM dataset to the size of the Swiss dataset removed the difference. Only heterosexuals varied based on the DDQC, due to UK male heterosexuals who clustered exclusively with MSM. Their removal eliminated this difference. In conclusion, the UK and Swiss HIV epidemics have similar underlying dynamics and observed differences in clustering are mainly due to different population sizes.

Transmission of Non-B HIV Subtypes in the United Kingdom Is Increasingly Driven by Large Non-Heterosexual Transmission Clusters.

BACKGROUND: The United Kingdom human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic was historically dominated by HIV subtype B transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Now 50% of diagnoses and prevalent infections are among heterosexual individuals and mainly involve non-B subtypes. Between 2002 and 2010, the prevalence of non-B diagnoses among MSM increased from 5.4% to 17%, and this study focused on the drivers of this change. METHODS: Growth between 2007 and 2009 in transmission clusters among 14 000 subtype A1, C, D, and G sequences from the United Kingdom HIV Drug Resistance Database was analysed by risk group. RESULTS: Of 1148 clusters containing at least 2 sequences in 2007, >75% were pairs and >90% were heterosexual. Most clusters (71.4%) did not grow during the study period. Growth was significantly lower for small clusters and higher for clusters of ≥7 sequences, with the highest growth observed for clusters comprising sequences from MSM and people who inject drugs (PWID). Risk group (P< .0001), cluster size (P< .0001), and subtype (P< .01) were predictive of growth in a generalized linear model. DISCUSSION: Despite the increase in non-B subtypes associated with heterosexual transmission, MSM and PWID are at risk for non-B infections. Crossover of subtype C from heterosexuals to MSM has led to the expansion of this subtype within the United Kingdom.

A phylotype-based analysis highlights the role of drug-naive HIV-positive individuals in the transmission of antiretroviral resistance in the UK.

OBJECTIVE: Antiretroviral-naive HIV-positive individuals contribute to the transmission of drug-resistant viruses, compromising first-line therapy. Using phylogenetic inference, we quantified the proportion of transmitted drug-resistance originating from a treatment-naive source. METHODS: Using a novel phylotype-based approach, 24 550 HIV-1 subtype B partial pol gene sequences from the UK HIV Drug Resistance database were analysed. Ongoing transmission of drug resistance amongst HIV-positive individuals was identified as phylotypes of at least three sequences with at least one shared drug resistance mutation, a maximum intra-clade genetic distance of 4.0% and a basal branch support at least 90%. The time of persistence of the transmission chains was estimated using a fast least-squares molecular clock inference approach. RESULTS: Around 70% of transmitted drug-resistance had a treatment-naive source. The most commonly transmitted mutations were L90M in the protease gene and K103N, T215D and T215S in reverse transcriptase. Reversion to wild type occurred at a low frequency and drug-independent reservoirs of resistance have persisted for up to 13 years. CONCLUSION: These results illustrate the impact of viral fitness on the establishment of resistance reservoirs and support the notion that earlier diagnoses and treatment of HIV infections are warranted for counteracting the spread of antiretroviral resistance. Phylotype-based phylogenetic inference is an attractive approach for the routine surveillance of transmitted drug resistance in HIV as well as in other pathogens for which genotypic resistance data are available.

Integrase inhibitor (INI) genotypic resistance in treatment-naive and raltegravir-experienced patients infected with diverse HIV-1 clades.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to characterize the prevalence and patterns of genotypic integrase inhibitor (INI) resistance in relation to HIV-1 clade. METHODS: The cohort comprised 533 INI-naive subjects and 255 raltegravir recipients with viraemia who underwent integrase sequencing in routine care across Europe, including 134/533 (25.1%) and 46/255 (18.0%), respectively, with non-B clades (A, C, D, F, G, CRF01, CRF02, other CRFs, complex). RESULTS: No major INI resistance-associated mutations (RAMs) occurred in INI-naive subjects. Among raltegravir recipients with viraemia (median 3523 HIV-1 RNA copies/mL), 113/255 (44.3%) had one or more major INI RAMs, most commonly N155H (45/255, 17.6%), Q148H/R/K + G140S/A (35/255, 13.7%) and Y143R/C/H (12/255, 4.7%). In addition, four (1.6%) raltegravir recipients showed novel mutations at recognized resistance sites (E92A, S147I, N155D, N155Q) and novel mutations at other integrase positions that were statistically associated with raltegravir exposure (K159Q/R, I161L/M/T/V, E170A/G). Comparing subtype B with non-B clades, Q148H/R/K occurred in 42/209 (20.1%) versus 2/46 (4.3%) subjects (P = 0.009) and G140S/A occurred in 36/209 (17.2%) versus 1/46 (2.2%) subjects (P = 0.005). Intermediate- to high-level cross-resistance to twice-daily dolutegravir was predicted in 40/255 (15.7%) subjects, more commonly in subtype B versus non-B clades (39/209, 18.7% versus 1/46, 2.2%; P = 0.003). A glycine (G) to serine (S) substitution at integrase position 140 required one nucleotide change in subtype B and two nucleotide changes in all non-B clades. CONCLUSIONS: No major INI resistance mutations occurred in INI-naive subjects. Reduced occurrence of Q148H/R/K + G140S/A was seen in non-B clades versus subtype B, and was explained by the higher genetic barrier to the G140S mutation observed in all non-B clades analysed.

Evidence of Self-Sustaining Drug Resistant HIV-1 Lineages Among Untreated Patients in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: About 10% of new diagnoses of subtype B human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in the United Kingdom are with viruses showing transmitted drug resistance (TDR). However, there is discordance between the mutation patterns observed in HIV-infected patients failing therapy and those seen in TDR. METHODS: We extracted all subtype B HIV-1 pol gene sequences from treatment-naive patients within the United Kingdom HIV Drug Resistance Database sampled between 1997 and 2011 and carrying the most common protease inhibitors, nonnucleoside and nucleotide reverse transcriptase inhibitors TDR mutations, namely, L90M, K103N, and T215Y/F/rev, respectively (n = 1140). Transmission clusters (n ≥ 2 sequences) were identified by maximum-likelihood phylogeny using a genetic distance cutoff of ≤ 1.5%. The time of origin and the basic reproductive number (R0) of clusters were estimated by Bayesian methods. RESULTS: T215rev was present alone in 47% of the sequences (n = 540), K103N in 31% (n = 359), and L90M in 10% (n = 109). The remaining sequences contained T215Y or combinations of L90M, K103N, and T215rev. Fifty-five percent (n = 624) of the sequences formed highly supported transmission clusters (n = 193) containing between 2 and 15 sequences. The time of origin of 10 large clusters (≥ 8 sequences) was estimated to be between 2000 (1999-2002; 95% highest posterior density [HPD]) and 2006 (2005-2007; 95% HPD). The oldest cluster had persisted for nearly 8 years. All 10 clusters had R0s ranging from 1.3 (0.4-2.5; 95% HPD) to 2.8 (0.6-6.5; 95% HPD). CONCLUSIONS: A high proportion of the most common TDR in subtype B infections in the United Kingdom is derived by onward transmission from treatment-naive patients.

Phylogenetic analyses reveal HIV-1 infections between men misclassified as heterosexual transmissions.

OBJECTIVE: HIV-1 subtype B infections are associated with MSM in the UK. Yet, around 13% of subtype B infections are found in those reporting heterosexual contact as transmission route. Using phylogenetics, we explored possible misclassification of sexual exposure among men diagnosed with HIV in the UK. DESIGN: Viral gene sequences linked to patient-derived information were used to identify phylogenetic transmission chains. METHODS: A total of 22,481 HIV-1 subtype B pol gene sequences sampled between 1996 and 2008 were analysed. Dated phylogenies were reconstructed and transmission clusters identified as clades of at least two sequences with a maximum genetic distance of 4.5%, a branch support of at least 95% and spanning 5 years. The characteristics of clusters containing at least one heterosexually acquired infection were analysed. RESULTS: Twenty-nine percent of the linked heterosexuals clustered exclusively with MSM. These were more likely to be men than women. Estimated misclassification of homosexually acquired infections ranged between 1 and 11% of the reported male heterosexuals diagnosed with HIV. Black African heterosexual men were more often phylogenetically linked to MSM than other ethnic group, with an estimated misclassification range between 1 and 21%. CONCLUSION: Overall, a small proportion of self-reported heterosexual men diagnosed with HIV could have been infected homosexually. However, up to one in five black African heterosexual men chose not to disclose sex with men at HIV diagnosis and preferred to be identified as heterosexual. Phylogenetic analyses can enhance surveillance-based risk information and inform national programmes for monitoring and preventing HIV infections.

Intercontinental dispersal of HIV-1 subtype B associated with transmission among men who have sex with men in Japan.

UNLABELLED: Transmission clusters of HIV-1 subtype B uniquely associated with the epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in East Asia have recently been identified. Using the Los Alamos HIV sequence database and the UK HIV drug resistance database, we explored possible links between HIV MSM epidemics in East Asia and the rest of the world by using phylogenetic and molecular clock analyses. We found that JP.MSM.B-1, a subtype B MSM variant that accounts for approximately one-third of the infections among Japanese MSM, was detected worldwide, in the United Kingdom (n=13), mainland China (n=3), the United States, Germany, Canada, and Taiwan (n=1 each). Interestingly, 10 United Kingdom samples plus two from Germany and the United States formed a distinct monophyletic subgroup within JP.MSM.B-1. The estimated divergence times of JP.MSM.B-1 and the latter subgroup were ∼1989 and ∼1999, respectively. These dates suggest that JP.MSM.B-1 was circulating for many years in Japan among MSM before disseminating to other countries, most likely through global MSM networks. A significant number of other Asian MSM HIV lineages were also detected in the UK HIV drug resistance database. Our study provides insight into the regional and global dispersal of Asian MSM HIV lineages. Further study of these strains is warranted to elucidate viral migration and the interrelationship of HIV epidemics on a global scale. IMPORTANCE: We previously identified several transmission clusters of HIV-1 subtype B uniquely associated with the epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) in East Asia. Using the Los Alamos HIV sequence database and the UK HIV drug resistance database, we explored the possible interplay of HIV MSM epidemics in the different geographic regions and found previously unrecognized interrelationships among the HIV-1 epidemics in East Asia, the United Kingdom, and the rest of the world. Our study provides insight into the regional and global dispersal of Asian MSM HIV lineages and highlights the importance of strengthening HIV monitoring efforts and the need for implementing effective control measures to reduce HIV transmission on a global scale.

The contribution of viral genotype to plasma viral set-point in HIV infection.

Disease progression in HIV-infected individuals varies greatly, and while the environmental and host factors influencing this variation have been widely investigated, the viral contribution to variation in set-point viral load, a predictor of disease progression, is less clear. Previous studies, using transmission-pairs and analysis of phylogenetic signal in small numbers of individuals, have produced a wide range of viral genetic effect estimates. Here we present a novel application of a population-scale method based in quantitative genetics to estimate the viral genetic effect on set-point viral load in the UK subtype B HIV-1 epidemic, based on a very large data set. Analyzing the initial viral load and associated pol sequence, both taken before anti-retroviral therapy, of 8,483 patients, we estimate the proportion of variance in viral load explained by viral genetic effects to be 5.7% (CI 2.8-8.6%). We also estimated the change in viral load over time due to selection on the virus and environmental effects to be a decline of 0.05 log10 copies/mL/year, in contrast to recent studies which suggested a reported small increase in viral load over the last 20 years might be due to evolutionary changes in the virus. Our results suggest that in the UK epidemic, subtype B has a small but significant viral genetic effect on viral load. By allowing the analysis of large sample sizes, we expect our approach to be applicable to the estimation of the genetic contribution to traits in many organisms.

Novel HIV-1 recombinants spreading across multiple risk groups in the United Kingdom: the identification and phylogeography of Circulating Recombinant Form (CRF) 50_A1D.

BACKGROUND: An increase in non-B HIV-1 infections among men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United Kingdom (UK) has created opportunities for novel recombinants to arise and become established. We used molecular mapping to characterize the importance of such recombinants to the UK HIV epidemic, in order to gain insights into transmission dynamics that can inform control strategies. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 55,556 pol (reverse transcriptase and protease) sequences in the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database were analyzed using Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary Algorithms (SCUEAL). Overall 72 patients shared the same A1/D recombination breakpoint in pol, comprising predominantly MSM but also heterosexuals and injecting drug users (IDUs). In six MSM, full-length single genome amplification of plasma HIV-1 RNA was performed in order to characterize the A1/D recombinant. Subtypes and recombination breakpoints were identified using sliding window and jumping profile hidden markov model approaches. Global maximum likelihood trees of gag, pol and env genes were drawn using FastTree version 2.1. Five of the six strains showed the same novel A1/D recombinant (8 breakpoints), which has been classified as CRF50_A1D. The sixth strain showed a complex CRF50_A1D/B/U structure. Divergence dates and phylogeographic inferences were determined using Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis using Sampling Trees (BEAST). This estimated that CRF50_A1D emerged in the UK around 1992 in MSM, with subsequent transmissions to heterosexuals and IDUs. Analysis of CRF50_A1D/B/U demonstrated that around the year 2000 CRF50_A1D underwent recombination with a subtype B strain. CONCLUSIONS: We report the identification of CRF50_A1D, a novel circulating recombinant that emerged in UK MSM around 1992, with subsequent onward transmission to heterosexuals and IDUs, and more recent recombination with subtype B. These findings highlight the changing dynamics of HIV transmission in the UK and the converging of the two previously distinct MSM and heterosexual epidemics.

Automated analysis of phylogenetic clusters.

BACKGROUND: As sequence data sets used for the investigation of pathogen transmission patterns increase in size, automated tools and standardized methods for cluster analysis have become necessary. We have developed an automated Cluster Picker which identifies monophyletic clades meeting user-input criteria for bootstrap support and maximum genetic distance within large phylogenetic trees. A second tool, the Cluster Matcher, automates the process of linking genetic data to epidemiological or clinical data, and matches clusters between runs of the Cluster Picker. RESULTS: We explore the effect of different bootstrap and genetic distance thresholds on clusters identified in a data set of publicly available HIV sequences, and compare these results to those of a previously published tool for cluster identification. To demonstrate their utility, we then use the Cluster Picker and Cluster Matcher together to investigate how clusters in the data set changed over time. We find that clusters containing sequences from more than one UK location at the first time point (multiple origin) were significantly more likely to grow than those representing only a single location. CONCLUSIONS: The Cluster Picker and Cluster Matcher can rapidly process phylogenetic trees containing tens of thousands of sequences. Together these tools will facilitate comparisons of pathogen transmission dynamics between studies and countries.

The impact of HIV-1 reverse transcriptase polymorphisms on responses to first-line nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based therapy in HIV-1-infected adults.

OBJECTIVE: HIV-1 genetic variability may influence antiretroviral therapy (ART) outcomes. The study aim was to determine the impact of polymorphisms in regions known to harbor major nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) resistance mutations (codons 90-108, 135-138, 179-190, 225-348) on virologic responses to first-line NNRTI-based ART. METHODS: Reverse transcriptase sequences from ART-naive individuals who commenced efavirenz (EFV) or nevirapine (NVP) with at least two nucleos(t)ide reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTIs) without major drug resistance mutations were analyzed. The impact of polymorphisms on week 4 viral load decrease and time to virologic failure was measured over a median 97 weeks. RESULTS: Among 4528 patients, most were infected with HIV-1 subtype B (67%) and commenced EFV-based ART (84%). Overall, 2598 (57%) had at least one polymorphism, most frequently at codons 90, 98, 101, 103, 106, 135, 138, 179, and 238. Virologic failure rates were increased in patients with two (n = 597) or more than two (n = 72) polymorphisms [adjusted hazard ratio 1.43; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07-1.92; P = 0.016]. Polymorphisms associated with virologic failure occurred at codons 90 (mostly V90I), 98 (mostly A98S), and 103 (mostly K103R), with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.78 (1.15-2.73; P = 0.009), 1.55 (1.16-2.08; P = 0.003), and 1.75 (1.00-3.05: P = 0.049), respectively. Polymorphisms at codon 179, especially V179D/E/T, predicted reduced week 4 responses (P = 0.001) but not virologic failure. CONCLUSION: The occurrence of multiple polymorphisms, though uncommon, was associated with a small increase in the risk of NNRTI treatment failure; significant effects were seen with polymorphisms at codon 90, 98, and 103. The mechanisms underlying the slower suppression seen with V179D/E/T deserve further investigation.

Second-line protease inhibitor-based antiretroviral therapy after non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor failure: the effect of a nucleoside backbone.

BACKGROUND: Virological failures on combined antiretroviral therapy still occur. Boosted protease inhibitor ( Pl/r)- based therapy is a commonly used option after non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor ( NNRTI) failure, but whether two fully active nucleoside reverse transciptase inhibitors (NRTIs) are required is unknown. We investigated the effect of an NRTI backbone in individuals receiving Pl/r after failing NNRTI-based combined antiretroviral therapy. METHODS: A longitudinal analysis of the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database to identify individuals who failed first-line NNRTI and two NRTIs, and switched to Pl/r-based therapy between January 1999 and December 2008 was conducted. We investigated the effect of NRTI on suppression. RESULTS: In total, 470 individuals met study criteria: 19.6%, 34.5% and 46.0% started 0, 1 or ≥ 2 NRTIs, respectively. Median CD4+ T-cell count was 223 cells/mm3 and HIV-RNA was 4.3 log10 copies/ml; 246 (52.3%) underwent genotyping before switch. virological failure occurred in 10.9% and 13% after 48 and 96 weeks, respectively. In multivariable analysis, heterosexual risk group and HIV RNA were independently associated with virological failure; higher CD4+ T-cell count was protective (HR= 0.92). Number of new NRTIs or genotypic sensitivity score of backbone had no effect on treatment success rates when modelled as categorical or continuous variables. CONCLUSIONS: Successful treatment with a second-line Pl/r may not require two active NRTIs. If replicated in clinincal trials, these findings could guide future recommendations.

Transmission network parameters estimated from HIV sequences for a nationwide epidemic.

BACKGROUND: Many studies of sexual behavior have shown that individuals vary greatly in their number of sexual partners over time, but it has proved difficult to obtain parameter estimates relating to the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission except in small-scale contact tracing studies. Recent developments in molecular phylodynamics have provided new routes to obtain these parameter estimates, and current clinical practice provides suitable data for entire infected populations. METHODS: A phylodynamic analysis was performed on partial pol gene sequences obtained for routine clinical care from 14,560 individuals, representing approximately 60% of the HIV-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) under care in the United Kingdom. RESULTS: Among individuals linked to others in the data set, 29% are linked to only 1 individual, 41% are linked to 2-10 individuals, and 29% are linked to ≥10 individuals. The right-skewed degree distribution can be approximated by a power law, but the data are best fitted by a Waring distribution for all time depths. For time depths of 5-7 years, the distribution parameter ρ lies within the range that indicates infinite variance. CONCLUSIONS: The transmission network among UK MSM is characterized by preferential association such that a randomly distributed intervention would not be expected to stop the epidemic.

Impact of transmitted drug-resistance on treatment selection and outcome of first-line Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART).

OBJECTIVE: The study aim was to determine how resistance testing influences outcome of first-line highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in routine practice in the United Kingdom. METHODS: The prevalence of transmitted drug resistance and the genotypic sensitivity score (GSS) of first-line HAART regimens were determined using data from the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort(CHIC) Study. Factors associated with starting a regimen with a reduced GSS and subsequent virological responses were analyzed by logistic and Cox regression. RESULTS: Amongst patients tested in 1999­2006, 116 of 1175 (10%) had $1 resistance mutation; 64 patients (5.4%) had $1 mutation associated with resistance to drugs in the initial HAART regimen and 54 (4.6%) showed a GSS, 3. Factors independently associated with a GSS, 3 were starting HAART in 1999­2001 vs. 2004­2006 (odds ratio = 2.63; 95% confidence interval: 1.19 to 5.83) and use of ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor (PI/r)­based vs. nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor­based regimens (1.97; 1.06 to 3.64). AGSS .3 was independently associated with virological suppression(hazard ratio for GSS, 3 = 0.60; 95% confidence interval 0.41 to 0.87). CONCLUSIONS: Most patients starting HAART after undergoing resistance testing received regimens with a GSS $3. PI/r-based therapy was often selected in patients with resistance to the nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor backbone. Low GSS predicted poor virological suppression and the association persisted after adjusting for PI/r use.

HIV type-1 drug resistance in antiretroviral treatment-naive adults infected with non-B subtype virus in the United Kingdom.

BACKGROUND: There is an increasing prevalence of non-B subtype HIV type-1 (HIV-1) infections in Europe, reflecting patterns of migration. We examined the characteristics of HIV-1 drug resistance in antiretroviral treatment (ART)-naive individuals migrating to the UK. METHODS: Resistance tests reported to the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database between 2001 and 2006 were included. Demographic data were obtained via linkage to national databases. Resistance was defined as ≥ 1 drug resistance mutation. Non-B HIV-1 subtype was used as a surrogate marker of infection acquired outside the UK. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between demographics and the prevalence of resistance. RESULTS: Overall, 196/4,291 (4.6%) samples with non-B subtype showed resistance compared with 745/6,435 (11.6%) samples for subtype B. Among non-B subtypes, the prevalence of resistance decreased over time (6.0% in 2001-2003 to 3.2% in 2006) and was independently associated with later calendar year of sampling (P=0.001). Resistance was confined mainly to one ART class (85%); non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor resistance was more common in subtype C (47%) compared with non-B non-C subtypes (29%; P=0.02). M184V was more common in non-B subtypes (non-B 30% versus B 5%; P<0.001) and T215 variants were more common in subtype B (non-B 10% versus B 49%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In ART-naive individuals living in the UK, but who are likely to have acquired HIV-1 abroad, we observed a downward trend in resistance over time, which is surprising in light of ART roll-out in resource-limited settings. Reassuringly, resistance was mainly confined to one drug class; however, patterns of resistance differed by subtype, with some evidence of possible undisclosed prior therapy in non-B subtypes.

Positive and negative drug selection pressures on the N348I connection domain mutation: new insights from in vivo data.

BACKGROUND: There is conflicting evidence on specific reverse transcriptase inhibitors to which the N348I mutation in the connection domain of HIV type-1 reverse transcriptase confers resistance. Here, we examined associations between the emergence of N348I and antiretroviral history in a large clinical database. METHODS: We analysed 5,353 resistance tests (that were sequenced beyond codon 348) among 2,266 antiretroviral-experienced patients. Associations between N348I and individual antiretroviral drug exposure were estimated using a matched case-control approach. Cases were defined as the first resistance test where N348I was detected; for each case, the 10 closest (in calendar time) N348N tests were selected as controls. Odds ratios (ORs) adjusted for effects of all other drugs were estimated by conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: N348I was detected in 198 (8.7%) cases. Drugs that were statistically significantly positively associated with N348I were efavirenz (OR 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-2.23; P=0.017) and nevirapine (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.49-2.85; P<0.001). Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate (TDF) was significantly negatively associated (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.15-0.48; P<0.001) with N348I. Similar findings were observed when the analysis was repeated to include only those tests within 2 years of the resistance test. Effects for zidovudine and stavudine were evident only in an additional analysis, which considered exposure to both drugs jointly within 2 years prior to the resistance test: exposure to zidovudine alone (OR 4.61, 95% CI 1.83-11.61; P<0.001) and exposure to stavudine alone (OR 3.39, 95% CI 1.32-8.71; P=0.011). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first clinical evidence to suggest that efavirenz might select for N348I in addition to nevirapine, that stavudine might select for N348I in addition to zidovudine and that TDF might protect against the mutation.

An evolutionary model-based algorithm for accurate phylogenetic breakpoint mapping and subtype prediction in HIV-1.

Genetically diverse pathogens (such as Human Immunodeficiency virus type 1, HIV-1) are frequently stratified into phylogenetically or immunologically defined subtypes for classification purposes. Computational identification of such subtypes is helpful in surveillance, epidemiological analysis and detection of novel variants, e.g., circulating recombinant forms in HIV-1. A number of conceptually and technically different techniques have been proposed for determining the subtype of a query sequence, but there is not a universally optimal approach. We present a model-based phylogenetic method for automatically subtyping an HIV-1 (or other viral or bacterial) sequence, mapping the location of breakpoints and assigning parental sequences in recombinant strains as well as computing confidence levels for the inferred quantities. Our Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary ALgorithms (SCUEAL) procedure is shown to perform very well in a variety of simulation scenarios, runs in parallel when multiple sequences are being screened, and matches or exceeds the performance of existing approaches on typical empirical cases. We applied SCUEAL to all available polymerase (pol) sequences from two large databases, the Stanford Drug Resistance database and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Comparing with subtypes which had previously been assigned revealed that a minor but substantial (approximately 5%) fraction of pure subtype sequences may in fact be within- or inter-subtype recombinants. A free implementation of SCUEAL is provided as a module for the HyPhy package and the Datamonkey web server. Our method is especially useful when an accurate automatic classification of an unknown strain is desired, and is positioned to complement and extend faster but less accurate methods. Given the increasingly frequent use of HIV subtype information in studies focusing on the effect of subtype on treatment, clinical outcome, pathogenicity and vaccine design, the importance of accurate, robust and extensible subtyping procedures is clear.

Molecular phylodynamics of the heterosexual HIV epidemic in the United Kingdom.

The heterosexual risk group has become the largest HIV infected group in the United Kingdom during the last 10 years, but little is known of the network structure and dynamics of viral transmission in this group. The overwhelming majority of UK heterosexual infections are of non-B HIV subtypes, indicating viruses originating among immigrants from sub-Saharan Africa. The high rate of HIV evolution, combined with the availability of a very high density sample of viral sequences from routine clinical care has allowed the phylodynamics of the epidemic to be investigated for the first time. Sequences of the viral protease and partial reverse transcriptase coding regions from 11,071 patients infected with HIV of non-B subtypes were studied. Of these, 2774 were closely linked to at least one other sequence by nucleotide distance. Including the closest sequences from the global HIV database identified 296 individuals that were in UK-based groups of 3 or more individuals. There were a total of 8 UK-based clusters of 10 or more, comprising 143/2774 (5%) individuals, much lower than the figure of 25% obtained earlier for men who have sex with men (MSM). Sample dates were incorporated into relaxed clock phylogenetic analyses to estimate the dates of internal nodes. From the resulting time-resolved phylogenies, the internode lengths, used as estimates of maximum transmission intervals, had a median of 27 months overall, over twice as long as obtained for MSM (14 months), with only 2% of transmissions occurring in the first 6 months after infection. This phylodynamic analysis of non-B subtype HIV sequences representing over 40% of the estimated UK HIV-infected heterosexual population has revealed heterosexual HIV transmission in the UK is clustered, but on average in smaller groups and is transmitted with slower dynamics than among MSM. More effective intervention to restrict the epidemic may therefore be feasible, given effective diagnosis programmes.