An immuno-epidemiological model for transient immune protection: A case study for viral respiratory infections.

The dynamics of infectious disease in a population critically involves both within-host pathogen replication and between host pathogen transmission. While modeling efforts have recently explored how within-host dynamics contribute to shaping population transmission, fewer have explored how ongoing circulation of an epidemic infectious disease can impact within-host immunological dynamics. We present a simple, influenza-inspired model that explores the potential for re-exposure during a single, ongoing outbreak to shape individual immune response and epidemiological potential in non-trivial ways. We show how even a simplified system can exhibit complex ongoing dynamics and sensitive thresholds in behavior. We also find epidemiological stochasticity likely plays a critical role in reinfection or in the maintenance of individual immunological protection over time.

Improving pandemic mitigation policies across communities through coupled dynamics of risk perception and infection.

Capturing the coupled dynamics between individual behavioural decisions that affect disease transmission and the epidemiology of outbreaks is critical to pandemic mitigation strategy. We develop a multiplex network approach to model how adherence to health-protective behaviours that impact COVID-19 spread are shaped by perceived risks and resulting community norms. We focus on three synergistic dynamics governing individual behavioural choices: (i) social construction of concern, (ii) awareness of disease incidence, and (iii) reassurance by lack of disease. We show why policies enacted early or broadly can cause communities to become reassured and therefore unwilling to maintain or adopt actions. Public health policies for which success relies on collective action should therefore exploit the behaviourally receptive phase; the period between the generation of sufficient concern to foster adoption of novel actions and the relaxation of adherence driven by reassurance fostered by avoidance of negative outcomes over time.

Deviations in influenza seasonality: odd coincidence or obscure consequence?

In temperate regions, influenza typically arrives with the onset of colder weather. Seasonal waves travel over large spaces covering many climatic zones in a relatively short period of time. The precise mechanism for this striking seasonal pattern is still not well understood, and the interplay of factors that influence the spread of infection and the emergence of new strains is largely unknown. The study of influenza seasonality has been fraught with problems. One of these is the ever-shifting description of illness resulting from influenza and the use of both the historical definitions and new definitions based on actual isolation of the virus. The compilation of records describing influenza oscillations on a local and global scale is massive, but the value of these data is a function of the definitions used. In this review, we argue that observations of both seasonality and deviation from the expected pattern stem from the nature of this disease. Heterogeneity in seasonal patterns may arise from differences in the behaviour of specific strains, the emergence of a novel strain, or cross-protection from previously observed strains. Most likely, the seasonal patterns emerge from interactions of individual factors behaving as coupled resonators. We emphasize that both seasonality and deviations from it may merely be reflections of our inability to disentangle signal from noise, because of ambiguity in measurement and/or terminology. We conclude the review with suggestions for new promising and realistic directions with tangible consequences for the modelling of complex influenza dynamics in order to effectively control infection.

How disease models in static networks can fail to approximate disease in dynamic networks.

In the modeling of infectious disease spread within explicit social contact networks, previous studies have predominantly assumed that the effects of shifting social associations within groups are small. These models have utilized static approximations of contact networks. We examine this assumption by modeling disease spread within dynamic networks where associations shift according to individual preference based on three different measures of network centrality. The results of our investigations clearly show that this assumption may not hold in many cases. We demonstrate that these differences in association dynamics do yield significantly different disease outcomes both from each other and also from models using graph-theoretically accurate static network approximations. Further work is therefore needed to explore under which circumstances static models accurately reflect constantly shifting natural populations.

Pneumocystis carinii infection presenting as an intra-abdominal cystic mass in a child with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome.

We describe the case of a pediatric patient with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) with an unusual large, fluid-filled intra-abdominal cystic lesion in which Pneumocystis carinii trophozoites were identified. Extrapulmonary P. carinii infection should be considered in the differential diagnosis of an intra-abdominal cystic mass in a child with AIDS.

Suspected appendicitis in children: focused CT technique for evaluation.

PURPOSE: To determine the accuracy of a focused computed tomographic (CT) technique with oral and intravenous contrast materials for the diagnosis of appendicitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ninety-three abdominal-pelvic contrast material-enhanced CT scans obtained during 6 years in 54 girls and 39 boys (age range, 1-18 years) with right lower quadrant pain were retrospectively reviewed. The detected abnormal findings were recorded as being in the region above the upper pole of the right kidney, between the upper pole of the right kidney and the lower pole of the right kidney (RLP), or below the iliac crest. Sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated. chi(2) analysis was performed to determine whether there were significant differences among patient groups according to region of detected disease. RESULTS: Fifty-five scans were abnormal: 38 showed appendicitis; and 17, other diseases. No scans, except two that showed pneumonia, had key findings above the RLP. Nineteen scans showed key findings between the RLP and the iliac crest. Thirty-three scans had diagnostic findings only below the iliac crest. The sensitivity (97%), specificity (93%), positive predictive value (90%), and negative predictive value (98%) of interpretation with all images for the diagnosis of appendicitis were the same as those of interpretation with only the focused images. CONCLUSION: CT performed to diagnose appendicitis can be limited to the region below the RLP.

Short rib-polydactyly syndrome: more evidence of a continuous spectrum.

We report a fetus with radiological features of the four established types of short rib-polydactyly syndrome (SRPS). The phenotype of this fetus supports the previously suggested hypothesis that the different subtypes of the short rib and polydactyly syndrome are not single entities, but rather, part of a continuous spectrum with variable expressivity.

Monitoring of girls undergoing medical therapy for isosexual precocious puberty.

We evaluated the use of sonography in monitoring the efficacy of suppressive therapy with a gonadotropin releasing hormone analogue in girls being treated for isosexual precocious puberty. Ten girls 5 to 9 years of age underwent serial sonography and hormonal stimulation tests on the same day. Sonographic trends of decreasing ovarian volume and uterine length indicated early suppression even when absolute values were above threshold. Changes in ovarian volume were the most sensitive predictor of pituitary-gonadal suppression. Sonography is a sensitive and accurate method of monitoring medical therapy; ovarian volume and analysis of interval change are the most sensitive barometers of change.