The impact of macroeconomic variables on socio-economic indicators of agricultural section based on Government development programs / O impacto das variáveis macroeconômicas nos indicadores socioeconômicos do setor agropecuário com base nos programas de desenvolvimento do Governo

In this paper, the short-term and long-term effects of macroeconomic variables on socio-economic indicators of agricultural sector, including price index, rural unemployment and gross domestic product (GDP) over the first to six government development programs were investigated. The auto-regressive distributed lag approach (ARDL) was used. The results showed that in the short run, inflation rate with a delay has a significant and negative effect on employment in the agricultural sector and increases the level of rural unemployment. The findings suggest that the effects of liquidity and inflation rate in the short run on the GDP are negative and government spending in the short run has a positive effect on the agricultural price index. In the long run, the effect of these variables on agricultural inflation is similar to the short term, but with the difference that the elasticities were larger.

Neste artigo, foram investigados os efeitos de curto e longo prazo das variáveis macroeconômicas sobre os indicadores socioeconômicos do setor agrícola, incluindo índice de preços, desemprego rural e produto interno bruto (PIB) sobre os primeiros seis programas de desenvolvimento do governo. Foi utilizada a abordagem de atraso distribuído autorregressivo (ARDL). Os resultados mostraram que no curto prazo a taxa de inflação com atraso tem um efeito significativo e negativo sobre o emprego no setor agrícola e aumenta o nível de desemprego rural. Os resultados sugerem que os efeitos da liquidez e da taxa de inflação no curto prazo sobre o PIB são negativos e os gastos do governo no curto prazo têm efeito positivo sobre o índice de preços agrícolas. No longo prazo, o efeito dessas variáveis ​​sobre a inflação agrícola é semelhante ao de curto prazo, mas com a diferença de que as elasticidades foram maiores.

A model-based evaluation of farmers' income variability under climate change (case study: autumn crops in Iran) / Uma avaliação baseada em modelo da variabilidade da renda dos agricultores sob mudança climática (estudo de caso: culturas de outono no Irã)

The study strives to analyze the potential variations of farmers' income under climate change by using Ricardian approach. The case study was Mazandaran province of Iran and three autumn crops, i.e. wheat, barley and canola were considered as the investigated crops. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model was selected to downscale the climate data. Three climate variables were downscaled for the years 2020-2080 under three climate scenarios: optimistic (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RCP8.5). The Ricardian approach was also employed to predict the economics of climate change. Accordingly, the mean monthly temperature of the province is projected to have an upward trend under all climate scenarios, however, the rainfall pattern would be varied. The results of economic impacts of climate change also approved that the net income of investigated crops would be different trends under climate change scenarios. Accordingly, the variations of air temperature and rainfall would lead that the net income increases for wheat and barley, while it decreases for canola.

O estudo se esforça para analisar as variações potenciais da renda dos agricultores sob a mudança climática usando a abordagem Ricardiana. O estudo de caso foi a província de Mazandaran do Irã e três culturas de outono, ou seja, trigo, cevada e canola foram consideradas como as culturas investigadas. O modelo Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) foi selecionado para reduzir a escala dos dados climáticos. Três variáveis ​​climáticas foram reduzidas para os anos 2020-2080 em três cenários climáticos: otimista (RCP2.6), médio (RCP4.5) e pessimista (RCP8.5). A abordagem ricardiana também foi empregada para prever a economia das mudanças climáticas. Assim, projeta-se que a temperatura média mensal da província tenha uma tendência ascendente em todos os cenários climáticos, no entanto, o padrão de chuvas seria variado. Os resultados dos impactos econômicos das mudanças climáticas também aprovaram que a renda líquida das lavouras investigadas seria de tendências diferentes em cenários de mudanças climáticas. Nesse sentido, as variações da temperatura do ar e da pluviosidade fariam com que a renda líquida aumentasse para o trigo e a cevada, enquanto diminuía para a canola.

The impact of macroeconomic variables on socio-economic indicators of agricultural section based on government development programs.

In this paper, the short-term and long-term effects of macroeconomic variables on socio-economic indicators of agricultural sector, including price index, rural unemployment and gross domestic product (GDP) over the first to six government development programs were investigated. The auto-regressive distributed lag approach (ARDL) was used. The results showed that in the short run, inflation rate with a delay has a significant and negative effect on employment in the agricultural sector and increases the level of rural unemployment. The findings suggest that the effects of liquidity and inflation rate in the short run on the GDP are negative and government spending in the short run has a positive effect on the agricultural price index. In the long run, the effect of these variables on agricultural inflation is similar to the short term, but with the difference that the elasticities were larger.

A model-based evaluation of farmers' income variability under climate change (case study: autumn crops in Iran).

The study strives to analyze the potential variations of farmers' income under climate change by using Ricardian approach. The case study was Mazandaran province of Iran and three autumn crops, i.e. wheat, barley and canola were considered as the investigated crops. The Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) model was selected to downscale the climate data. Three climate variables were downscaled for the years 2020-2080 under three climate scenarios: optimistic (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5), and pessimistic (RCP8.5). The Ricardian approach was also employed to predict the economics of climate change. Accordingly, the mean monthly temperature of the province is projected to have an upward trend under all climate scenarios, however, the rainfall pattern would be varied. The results of economic impacts of climate change also approved that the net income of investigated crops would be different trends under climate change scenarios. Accordingly, the variations of air temperature and rainfall would lead that the net income increases for wheat and barley, while it decreases for canola.