Tracking and predicting hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics in China by Baidu queries.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is highly prevalent in China, and more efficient methods of epidemic detection and early warning need to be developed to augment traditional surveillance systems. In this paper, a method that uses Baidu search queries to track and predict HFMD epidemics is presented, and the outbreaks of HFMD in China during the 60-month period from January 2011 to December 2015 are predicted. The Pearson correlation coefficient (R) of the predictive model and the mean absolute percentage errors between observed HFMD case counts and the predicted number show that our predictive model gives excellent fit to the data. This implies that Baidu search queries can be used in China to track and reliably predict HFMD epidemics, and can serve as a supplement to official systems for HFMD epidemic surveillance.

Family structure and quality of life of elders in rural China: the role of the new rural social pension.

Using data from a survey in Ankang district of Shaanxi province of China in 2011, this article examines the protective effect of the New Rural Social Pension (NRSP) on quality of life of rural elders, as well the moderating effect on association between family structure and quality of life. An instrumental variable approach is used. NRSP is shown to significantly improve the quality of life of rural elders, and a robustness check shows that this effect is consistent across different sets of subgroups. Compared with the elders who have at least one son, the quality of life of those who are childless or have only one child is significantly lower. The NRSP is more likely to significantly improve the quality of life of one-child elders. In addition, the associations between the NRSP and the different facets of quality of life of the elders are significant except for the facet of sensory abilities.

The role of cultural transmission in human demographic change: an age-structured model.

Human populations vary demographically with population sizes ranging from small groups of hunter-gatherers with less than fifty individuals to vast cities containing many millions. Here we investigate how the cultural transmission of traits affecting survival, fertility, or both can influence the birth rate, age structure, and asymptotic growth rate of a population. We show that the strong spread of such a trait can lead to a demographic transition, similar to that experienced in Europe in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, without using ecological or economic optimizing models. We also show that the spread of a cultural trait that increases fertility, but not survival, can cause demographic change similar to the 'Neolithic demographic transition': a period of increased population growth that is thought to have accompanied the transition from hunter-gatherer to agricultural lifestyles. We investigate the roles of vertical, oblique, and horizontal learning of such a trait in this transition and find that compared to vertical learning alone, horizontal and oblique learning can accelerate the trait's spread, lead to faster population growth, and increase its equilibrium frequency.

The coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation.

The evolution of social traits may not only depend on but also change the social structure of the population. In particular, the evolution of pairwise cooperation, such as biparental care, depends on the pair-matching distribution of the population, and the latter often emerges as a collective outcome of individual pair-bonding traits, which are also under selection. Here, we develop an analytical model and individual-based simulations to study the coevolution of long-term pair bonds and cooperation in parental care, where partners play a Snowdrift game in each breeding season. We illustrate that long-term pair bonds may coevolve with cooperation when bonding cost is below a threshold. As long-term pair bonds lead to assortative interactions through pair-matching dynamics, they may promote the prevalence of cooperation. In addition to the pay-off matrix of a single game, the evolutionarily stable equilibrium also depends on bonding cost and accidental divorce rate, and it is determined by a form of balancing selection because the benefit from pair-bond maintenance diminishes as the frequency of cooperators increases. Our findings highlight the importance of ecological factors affecting social bonding cost and stability in understanding the coevolution of social behaviour and social structures, which may lead to the diversity of biological social systems.

Forced bachelors, migration and HIV transmission risk in the context of China's gender imbalance: a meta-analysis.

China has experienced continual increase in the sex ratio at birth (SRB) since the 1980s, which has led to a serious gender imbalance. To identify whether the future forced bachelors, especially those who migrate to cities, will increase the risk of HIV spread, a systematic review was carried out of studies published since 2000 that include the sexual risks of male migrants of China. Five studies comparing risk differences between migrants and non-migrants showed male migrants had greater risk of having multiple sexual partners and engaging in commercial sex. Ten studies concerning the relationship between sexual risks and socio-demographic characteristics showed that unmarried male migrants were more likely to engage in commercial sex and be infected with STDs than married migrants, while male migrants with higher income were more likely to have multiple sexual partners and be infected with STDs. In an analysis stratified by sample characteristics, the association between marriage and sexual risk was greater among samples with lower mean age, higher average income and education. In addition, the risk selection on education and income disappeared in the samples of migrants of whom more than half were unmarried.

How copying affects the amount, evenness and persistence of cultural knowledge: insights from the social learning strategies tournament.

Darwinian processes should favour those individuals that deploy the most effective strategies for acquiring information about their environment. We organized a computer-based tournament to investigate which learning strategies would perform well in a changing environment. The most successful strategies relied almost exclusively on social learning (here, learning a behaviour performed by another individual) rather than asocial learning, even when environments were changing rapidly; moreover, successful strategies focused learning effort on periods of environmental change. Here, we use data from tournament simulations to examine how these strategies might affect cultural evolution, as reflected in the amount of culture (i.e. number of cultural traits) in the population, the distribution of cultural traits across individuals, and their persistence through time. We found that high levels of social learning are associated with a larger amount of more persistent knowledge, but a smaller amount of less persistent expressed behaviour, as well as more uneven distributions of behaviour, as individuals concentrated on exploiting a smaller subset of behaviour patterns. Increased rates of environmental change generated increases in the amount and evenness of behaviour. These observations suggest that copying confers on cultural populations an adaptive plasticity, allowing them to respond to changing environments rapidly by drawing on a wider knowledge base.

Cumulative cultural dynamics and the coevolution of cultural innovation and transmission: an ESS model for panmictic and structured populations.

When individuals in a population can acquire traits through learning, each individual may express a certain number of distinct cultural traits. These traits may have been either invented by the individual himself or acquired from others in the population. Here, we develop a game theoretic model for the accumulation of cultural traits through individual and social learning. We explore how the rates of innovation, decay, and transmission of cultural traits affect the evolutionary stable (ES) levels of individual and social learning and the number of cultural traits expressed by an individual when cultural dynamics are at a steady-state. We explore the evolution of these phenotypes in both panmictic and structured population settings. Our results suggest that in panmictic populations, the ES level of learning and number of traits tend to be independent of the social transmission rate of cultural traits and is mainly affected by the innovation and decay rates. By contrast, in structured populations, where interactions occur between relatives, the ES level of learning and the number of traits per individual can be increased (relative to the panmictic case) and may then markedly depend on the transmission rate of cultural traits. This suggests that kin selection may be one additional solution to Rogers's paradox of nonadaptive culture.

Why copy others? Insights from the social learning strategies tournament.

Social learning (learning through observation or interaction with other individuals) is widespread in nature and is central to the remarkable success of humanity, yet it remains unclear why copying is profitable and how to copy most effectively. To address these questions, we organized a computer tournament in which entrants submitted strategies specifying how to use social learning and its asocial alternative (for example, trial-and-error learning) to acquire adaptive behavior in a complex environment. Most current theory predicts the emergence of mixed strategies that rely on some combination of the two types of learning. In the tournament, however, strategies that relied heavily on social learning were found to be remarkably successful, even when asocial information was no more costly than social information. Social learning proved advantageous because individuals frequently demonstrated the highest-payoff behavior in their repertoire, inadvertently filtering information for copiers. The winning strategy (discountmachine) relied nearly exclusively on social learning and weighted information according to the time since acquisition.

Biodiversity of 20 chicken breeds assessed by SNPs located in gene regions.

Twenty-five single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were analyzed in 20 distinct chicken breeds. The SNPs, each located in a different gene and mostly on different chromosomes, were chosen to examine the use of SNPs in or close to genes (g-SNPs), for biodiversity studies. Phylogenetic trees were constructed from these data. When bootstrap values were used as a criterion for the tree repeatability, doubling the number of SNPs from 12 to 25 improved tree repeatability more than doubling the number of individuals per population, from five to ten. Clustering results of these 20 populations, based on the software STRUCTURE, are in agreement with those previously obtained from the analysis of microsatellites. When the number of clusters was similar to the number of populations, affiliation of birds to their original populations was correct (>95%) only when at least the 22 most polymorphic SNP loci (out of 25) were included. When ten populations were clustered into five groups based on STRUCTURE, we used membership coefficient (Q) of the major cluster at each population as an indicator for clustering success level. This value was used to compare between three marker types; microsatellites, SNPs in or close to genes (g-SNPs) and SNPs in random fragments (r-SNPs). In this comparison, the same individuals were used (five to ten birds per population) and the same number of loci (14) used for each of the marker types. The average membership coefficients (Q) of the major cluster for microsatellites, g-SNPs and r-SNPs were 0.85, 0.7, and 0.64, respectively. Analysis based on microsatellites resulted in significantly higher clustering success due to their multi-allelic nature. Nevertheless, SNPs have obvious advantages, and are an efficient and cost-effective genetic tool, providing broader genome coverage and reliable estimates of genetic relatedness.

Evidence for a major gene affecting the transition from normoglycaemia to hyperglycaemia in Psammomys obesus.

We investigated the mode of inheritance of nutritionally induced diabetes in the desert gerbil Psammomys obesus (sand rat), following transfer from low-energy (LE) to high-energy (HE) diet which induces hyperglycaemia. Psammomys selected for high or low blood glucose level were used as two parental lines. A first backcross generation (BC(1)) was formed by crossing F(1) males with females of the diabetes-prone line. The resulting 232 BC(1) progeny were assessed for blood glucose. All progeny were weaned at 3 weeks of age (week 0), and their weekly assessment of blood glucose levels proceeded until week 9 after weaning, with all progeny maintained on HE diet. At weeks 1 to 9 post weaning, a clear bimodal distribution statistically different from unimodal distribution of blood glucose was observed, normoglycaemic and hyperglycaemic at a 1:1 ratio. This ratio is expected at the first backcross generation for traits controlled by a single dominant gene. From week 0 (prior to the transfer to HE diet) till week 8, the hyperglycaemic individuals were significantly heavier (4--17%) than the normoglycaemic ones. The bimodal blood glucose distribution in BC(1) generation, with about equal frequencies in each mode, strongly suggests that a single major gene affects the transition from normo- to hyperglycaemia. The wide range of blood glucose values among the hyperglycaemic individuals (180 to 500 mg/dl) indicates that several genes and environmental factors influence the extent of hyperglycaemia. The diabetes-resistant allele appears to be dominant; the estimate for dominance ratio is 0.97.

Evolutionary traction: the cost of adaptation and the evolution of sex.

The advantage of sexual reproduction remains a puzzle for evolutionary biologists. Everything else being equal, asexual populations are expected to have twice the number of offspring produced by similar sexual populations. Yet, asexual species are uncommon among higher eukaryotes. In models assuming small populations, high mutation rates, or frequent environmental changes, sexual reproduction seems to have at least a two-fold advantage over asexuality. But the advantage of sex for large populations, low mutation rates, and rare or mild environmental changes remains a conundrum. Here we show that without recombination, rare advantageous mutations can result in increased accumulation of deleterious mutations ('evolutionary traction'), which explains the long-term advantage of sex under a wide parameter range.

Evolution of cultural communication systems: the coevolution of cultural signals and genes encoding learning preferences.

In several communication systems that rely on social learning, such as bird song, and possibly human language, the range of signals that can be learned is limited by perceptual biases--predispositions--that are presumably based on genes. In this paper, we examine the coevolution of such genes with the culturally transmitted communication traits themselves, using deterministic population genetic models. We argue that examining how restrictive genetic predispositions are is a useful way of examining the evolutionary origin and maintenance of learning. Under neutral cultural evolution, where no cultural trait has any inherent advantage over another, there is selection in favour of less restrictive genes (genes that allow a wider range of signals to recognized). In contrast, cultural conformity (where the most common cultural trait is favoured) leads to selection in favour of more restrictive genes.

Genetic sampling error of distance (delta(mu))2 and variation in mutation rate among microsatellite loci.

An expression is obtained for the time-dependent variance of the microsatellite genetic distance (delta(mu))2 when the mutation rate is allowed to vary randomly among loci. An estimator is presented for the coefficient of variation, C(w), in the mutation rate. Estimated values of C(w) from genetic distances between African and non-African populations were less than 100%. Caveats to this conclusion are discussed.

Empirical evaluation of genetic clustering methods using multilocus genotypes from 20 chicken breeds.

We tested the utility of genetic cluster analysis in ascertaining population structure of a large data set for which population structure was previously known. Each of 600 individuals representing 20 distinct chicken breeds was genotyped for 27 microsatellite loci, and individual multilocus genotypes were used to infer genetic clusters. Individuals from each breed were inferred to belong mostly to the same cluster. The clustering success rate, measuring the fraction of individuals that were properly inferred to belong to their correct breeds, was consistently approximately 98%. When markers of highest expected heterozygosity were used, genotypes that included at least 8-10 highly variable markers from among the 27 markers genotyped also achieved >95% clustering success. When 12-15 highly variable markers and only 15-20 of the 30 individuals per breed were used, clustering success was at least 90%. We suggest that in species for which population structure is of interest, databases of multilocus genotypes at highly variable markers should be compiled. These genotypes could then be used as training samples for genetic cluster analysis and to facilitate assignments of individuals of unknown origin to populations. The clustering algorithm has potential applications in defining the within-species genetic units that are useful in problems of conservation.

Models of sexual selection on a quantitative genetic trait when preference is acquired by sexual imprinting.

The evolution of a quantitative genetic trait under stabilizing viability selection and sexual selection is modeled for a polygynous species in which female mating preferences are acquired by sexual imprinting on the parents and by exposure to the surviving population at large. Stabilizing viability selection acts equally on both sexes in the case of a sexually monomorphic trait and on males only in the case of a dimorphic trait. A genetically fixed sensory or perceptual bias defines the origin of the scale on which the trait is measured, and the possibility is incorporated that female preferences may deviate asymmetrically from the familiar-either toward or away from this origin. When viability selection is strong relative to sexual selection, the models predict that the mean trait value will evolve to the viability optimum. With intermediate ratios of the strength of viability to sexual selection, a stable equilibrium can occur on either side of this viability optimum, depending on the direction of asymmetry in female preferences. When viability selection is relatively weak and certain other conditions are also satisfied, runaway selection is predicted.

Distinctive genetic signatures in the Libyan Jews.

Unlinked autosomal microsatellites in six Jewish and two non-Jewish populations were genotyped, and the relationships among these populations were explored. Based on considerations of clustering, pairwise population differentiation, and genetic distance, we found that the Libyan Jewish group retains genetic signatures distinguishable from those of the other populations, in agreement with some historical records on the relative isolation of this community. Our methods also identified evidence of some similarity between Ethiopian and Yemenite Jews, reflecting possible migration in the Red Sea region. We suggest that high-resolution statistical methods that use individual multilocus genotypes may make it practical to distinguish related populations of extremely recent common ancestry.

A comparative study of determinants of uxorilocal marriage in two counties of China.

A strictly maintained patrilineal family system makes virilocal marriage almost universal and uxorilocal marriage rare in the history of rural China. Uxorilocal marriage can be divided into two types that may be termed, respectively, contingent and institutional. The former preserves family lineages in families without a son and occurs when uxorilocal marriage is uncommon. The latter serves practical economic purposes in families with sons and occurs when uxorilocal marriage is relatively prevalent. Using data from a survey in two counties of Shaanxi--Lueyang, where both kinds of uxorilocal marriage are prevalent, and Sanyuan, where uxorilocal marriage is rare and usually contingent--this paper employs logistic regression models in a quantitative comparative study of determinants of uxorilocal marriage in rural China. We show that the purposes and prevalence of the two types of uxorilocal marriage differ and that their determinants are also different in the two counties. In Sanyuan, the determinants are only a couple's sibling composition, membership in a large family clan, and educational level. In Lueyang, in addition to those determinants in Sanyuan, important contributions to the type of uxorilocal marriage include a couple's parental marriage type, age at marriage, adoption status, marriage arrangement, and their attitudes toward uxorilocal marriage. The results indicate the potential importance of encouraging uxorilocal marriage in rural areas as a means of mitigating demographic and social problems related to son preference, such as high sex ratio at birth and lack of old-age security, which are projected for China's future.