ARCTIC CHANGE AND POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON MID-LATITUDE CLIMATE AND WEATHER: A US CLIVAR White Paper.

The Arctic has warmed more than twice as fast as the global average since the mid 20th century, a phenomenon known as Arctic amplification (AA). These profound changes to the Arctic system have coincided with a period of ostensibly more frequent events of extreme weather across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes, including extreme heat and rainfall events and recent severe winters. Though winter temperatures have generally warmed since 1960 over mid-to-high latitudes, the acceleration in the rate of warming at high-latitudes, relative to the rest of the NH, started approximately in 1990. Trends since 1990 show cooling over the NH continents, especially in Northern Eurasia. The possible link between Arctic change and mid-latitude climate and weather has spurred a rush of new observational and modeling studies. A number of workshops held during 2013-2014 have helped frame the problem and have called for continuing and enhancing efforts for improving our understanding of Arctic-mid-latitude linkages and its attribution to the occurrence of extreme climate and weather events. Although these workshops have outlined some of the major challenges and provided broad recommendations, further efforts are needed to synthesize the diversified research results to identify where community consensus and gaps exist. Building upon findings and recommendations of the previous workshops, the US CLIVAR Working Group on Arctic Change and Possible Influence on Mid-latitude Climate and Weather convened an international workshop at Georgetown University in Washington, DC, on February 1-3, 2017. Experts in the fields of atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere sciences assembled to assess the rapidly evolving state of understanding, identify consensus on knowledge and gaps in research, and develop specific actions to accelerate progress within the research community. With more than 100 participants, the workshop was the largest and most comprehensive gathering of climate scientists to address the topic to date. In this white paper, we synthesize and discuss outcomes from this workshop and activities involving many of the working group members. WORKSHOP FINDINGS: Rapid Arctic change - Emergence of new forcing (external and internal) of atmospheric circulation: Rapid Arctic change is evident in the observations and is simulated and projected by global climate models. AA has been attributed to sea ice and snow decline (regionally and seasonally varying). However this cannot explain why AA is greatest in winter and weakest in summer. It was argued at the workshop that other factors can also greatly contribute to AA including: increased downwelling longwave radiation from greenhouse gases (including greater water vapor concentrations from local and remote sources); increasing ocean heat content, due to local and remote processes; regional and hemispheric atmospheric circulation changes; increased poleward heat transport in the atmosphere and ocean; and cloud radiative forcing. In particular, there is emerging observational evidence that an enhanced poleward transport of sensible and latent heat plays a very important role in the AA of the recent decades, and that this enhancement is mostly fueled by changes in the atmospheric circulation. We concluded that our understanding of AA is incomplete, especially the relative contributions from the different radiative, thermodynamic, and dynamic processes.Arctic mid-latitude linkages - Focusing on seasonal and regional linkages and addressing sources of inconsistency and uncertainty among studies: The topic of Arctic mid-latitude linkages is controversial and was vigorously debated at the workshop. However, we concluded that rapid Arctic change is contributing to changes in mid-latitude climate and weather, as well as the occurrence of extreme events. But how significant the contribution is and what mechanisms are responsible are less well understood. Based on the synthesis efforts of observational and modeling studies, we identified a list of proposed physical processes or mechanisms that may play important roles in linking Arctic change to mid-latitude climate and weather. The list, ordered from high to low confidence, includes: increasing geopotential thickness over the polar cap; weakening of the thermal wind; modulating stratosphere-troposphere coupling; exciting anomalous planetary waves or stationary Rossby wave trains in winter and modulating transient synoptic waves in summer; altering storm tracks and behavior of blockings; and increasing frequency of occurrence of summer wave resonance. The pathway considered most robust is the propagation of planetary/Rossby waves excited by the diminished Barents-Kara sea ice, contributing to a northwestward expansion and intensification of the Siberian high leading to cold Eurasian winters. OPPORTUNITIES AND RECOMMENDATIONS: An important goal of the workshop was achieved: to hasten progress towards consensus understanding and identification of knowledge gaps. Based on the workshop findings, we identify specific opportunities to utilize observations and models, particularly a combination of them, to enable and accelerate progress in determining the mechanisms of rapid Arctic change and its mid-latitude linkages.Observations: Due to the remoteness and harsh environmental conditions of the Arctic, in situ observational time series are highly limited spatially and temporally in the region.Six recommendations to expand approaches using observational datasets and analyses of Arctic change and mid-latitude linkages include: Synthesize new Arctic observations;Create physically-based sea ice-ocean surface forcing datasets;Systematically employ proven and new metrics;Analyze paleoclimate data and new longer observational datasets;Utilize new observational analysis methods that extend beyond correlative relationships; andConsider both established and new theories of atmospheric and oceanic dynamics to interpret and guide observational and modeling studies.Model experiments: We acknowledge that models provide the primary tool for gaining a mechanistic understanding of variability and change in the Arctic and at mid-latitudes. Coordinated modeling studies should include approaches using a hierarchy of models from conceptual, simple component, or coupled models to complex atmospheric climate models or fully coupled Earth system models. We further recommend to force dynamical models with consistent boundary forcings.Three recommendations to advance modeling and synthesis understanding of Arctic change and mid-latitude linkages include: Establish a Modeling Task Force to plan protocols, forcing, and output parameters for coordinated modeling experiments (Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project; PAMIP);Furnish experiment datasets to the community through open access (via Earth System Grid); andPromote analysis within the community of the coordinated modeling experiments to understand mechanisms for AA and to further understand pathways for Arctic mid-latitude linkages.

Nine-analyte detection using an array-based biosensor.

A fluorescence-based multianalyte immunosensor has been developed for simultaneous analysis of multiple samples. While the standard 6 x 6 format of the array sensor has been used to analyze six samples for six different analytes, this same format has the potential to allow a single sample to be tested for 36 different agents. The method described herein demonstrates proof of principle that the number of analytes detectable using a single array can be increased simply by using complementary mixtures of capture and tracer antibodies. Mixtures were optimized to allow detection of closely related analytes without significant cross-reactivity. Following this facile modification of patterning and assay procedures, the following nine targets could be detected in a single 3 x 3 array: Staphylococcal enterotoxin B, ricin, cholera toxin, Bacillus anthracis Sterne, Bacillus globigii, Francisella tularensis LVS, Yersiniapestis F1 antigen, MS2 coliphage, and Salmonella typhimurium. This work maximizes the efficiency and utility of the described array technology, increasing only reagent usage and cost; production and fabrication costs are not affected.

Rhythms of dialogue in infancy: coordinated timing in development.

Although theories of early social development emphasize the advantage of mother-infant rhythmic coupling and bidirectional coordination, empirical demonstrations remain sparse. We therefore test the hypothesis that vocal rhythm coordination at age 4 months predicts attachment and cognition at age 12 months. Partner and site novelty were studied by recording mother-infant, stranger-infant, and mother-stranger face-to-face interactions in both home and laboratory sites for 88 4-month-old infants, for a total of 410 recordings. An automated dialogic coding scheme, appropriate to the nonperiodic rhythms of our data, implemented a systems concept of every action as jointly produced by both partners. Adult-infant coordination at age 4 months indeed predicted both outcomes at age 12 months, but midrange degree of mother-infant and stranger-infant coordination was optimal for attachment (Strange Situation), whereas high ("tight") stranger-infant coordination in the lab was optimal for cognition (Bayley Scales). Thus, high coordination can index more or less optimal outcomes, as a function of outcome measure, partner, and site. Bidirectional coordination patterns were salient in both attachment and cognition predictions. Comparison of mother-infant and stranger-infant interactions was particularly informative, suggesting the dynamics of infants' early differentiation from mothers. Stranger and infant showed different patterns of vocal rhythm activity level, were more bidirectional, accounted for 8 times more variance in Bayley scores, predicted attachment just as well as mother and infant, and revealed more varied contingency structures and a wider range of attachment outcomes. To explain why vocal timing measures at age 4 months predict outcomes at age 12 months, our dialogue model was construed as containing procedures for regulating the pragmatics of proto-conversation. The timing patterns of the 4-month-olds were seen as procedural or performance knowledge, and as precursors of various kinesic patterns in the outcomes of 12-month-olds. Thus, our work further defines a fundamental dyadic timing matrix--a system that guides the trajectory of relatedness, informing all relational theories of development.

Gender and speech rate in the perception of competence and social attractiveness.

The authors' hypotheses were that (a) listeners regard speakers whose global speech rates they judge to be similar to their own as more competent and more socially attractive than speakers whose rates are different from their own and (b) gender influences those perceptions. Participants were 17 male and 28 female listeners; they judged each of 3 male and 3 female speakers in terms of 10 unipolar adjective scales. The authors used 8 of the scales to derive 2 scores describing the extent to which the listener viewed a speaker as competent and socially attractive. The 2 scores were related by trend analyses (a) to the listeners' perceptions of the speakers' speech rates as compared with their own and (b) to comparisons of the actual speech rates of the speakers and listeners. The authors examined trend components of the data by split-plot multiple regression analyses. In general, the results supported both hypotheses. The participants judged speakers with speech rates similar to their own as more competent and socially attractive than speakers with speech rates slower or faster than their own. However, the ratings of competence were significantly influenced by the gender of the listeners, and those of social attractiveness were influenced by the gender of the listeners and the speakers.

Health-related quality-of-life assessment of patients with life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias.

The purpose of this study was to determine whether treatments for life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias are associated with quality-of-life (QOL) and psychological distress. Multidimensional measures of QOL and psychological distress were used to cross-sectionally compare patients with ICDs to patients treated with antiarrhythmic drugs and patients without serious cardiac conditions. The sample consisted of 157 patients: 35 patients treated with antiarrhythmic medication only, 24 patients treated with ICD only, 25 patients treated with ICD and antiarrhythmic medication, and 73 controls. Patients completed the Medical Outcomes Study SF-36 health survey, the Brief Symptom Inventory, and background questionnaires. There were no significant differences in self-reported QOL and psychological distress between patients with or without ICD, and the occurrence of defibrillator shocks was unrelated to QOL and psychological distress. However, patients treated with antiarrhythmic drugs reported greater QOL impairment in physical functioning, vitality, emotional role limitations, and sleep, as well as greater psychological distress than patients not treated with antiarrhythmics. These limitations may be attributed to adverse effects arising from antiarrhythmic pharmacotherapy. Results of the present investigation suggest that QOL and psychological distress are maintained among ICD patients, whereas treatment with antiarrhythmic drugs are associated with a diminished QOL and greater psychological distress. These findings may assist cardiologists to select the optimal treatment for life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias that minimizes disturbances in health-related QOL and psychological distress and increases patient compliance.

A comparison of computerized and standard versions of the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test.

The manual version of the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (WCST) is the most frequently used neuropsychological instrument for differentiating normal from populations with frontal-lobe impairments. A number of computerized versions have become available, and their ability to accurately detect frontal-lobe dysfunction is based on the assumption of equivalence with the standard manual version. Accordingly, comparisons of the distribution properties of central tendency, variability, and shape between the manual version with four computerized versions of the WCST were performed (n = 22 per condition). None of the computerized versions were found to be equivalent to the manual version on all assessment measures. Given the discrepancies between the manual and computerized versions, it is concluded that the norms provided for the standard manual presentation method should not be used for the computerized versions, and for continued use of the computerized versions, new norms for computer versions need to be established. Thus, clinicians and experimenters must use caution when basing conclusions on scores from computer versions of the WCST.

Bargaining theory and cooperative fishing participation on ifaluk atoll.

In this paper we examine the merit of bargaining theory, in its economic and ecological forms, as a model for understanding variation in the frequency of participation in cooperative fishing among men of Ifaluk atoll in Micronesia. Two determinants of bargaining power are considered: resource control and a bargainer's utility gain for his expected share of the negotiated resource. Several hypotheses which relte cultural and life-course parameters to bargaining power are tested against data on the frequency of cooperative sail-fishing participation. Consistent with predictions generated from bargaining theory, we show that (1) age is negatively correlated with cooperative fishing participation, (2) men of highranking clans and men with high levels of education fish less than men of low-ranking clans and less-educated men, (3) men with high expected utility gains from fishing returns fish more than men with low expected utility gains, (4) number of dependents is positively correlated with cooperative fishing participation, and (5) the number of young genetic offspring residing with a man is positively correlated with cooperative fishing participation, whereas the number of genetic offspring more than 13 years old who are residing with a man is negatively correlated with cooperative fishing participation.

Mathematical models for coordinated interpersonal timing in mother-infant interactions in the first year of life.

Two mathematical models of social contingency are examined in terms of their development over the first year of life. The interactions of 53 mothers and their infants were recorded at 6 weeks, 4 months, and 12 months. The infants' gazes at 6 weeks, the mothers' vocal behavior at 6 weeks, and the vocal behavior of the mother and infant at 4 and 12 months were automatically coded in terms of four states. The conditional dependence model and the response effects model were computed for each interaction at each age, and the coefficients of the models were examined as a function of age. The relative success of the models as estimates of moment-to-moment contingency as well as their variations with age are discussed.

Down's syndrome and infant gaze. Gaze behavior of Down's syndrome and nondelayed infants in interactions with their mothers.

The study reported here compared the gaze behavior of infants with Down syndrome (DS) and nondelayed infants during interactions with their mothers. The subjects were 10 DS infants and 11 nondelayed infants. Five of the DS infants and 6 of the nondelayed infants were 4 months old; the rest were 9 months old. The results support the expectation that infants with DS gazed at their mothers longer than did nondelayed infants during face-to-face play, and also indicate that all the infants visually attended to their mothers less at 9 months than at 4 months of age. It is conjectured that the increased gaze of the infants with DS may well facilitate attachment in the 1st year of life.

Vocal congruence in mother-infant play.

Turn-taking is the fundamental temporal structure of adult dialogue. This structure defines two types of joint silence: intrapersonal pause (silence bounded by the vocalizations of a single speaker) and switching pause (silence bounded by the vocalizations of different speakers). Switching pauses mark the boundaries of the turn exchange. In adult conversation the mean durations of both types of pause are characteristically matched between partners. This matching, termed "vocal congruence," occurs developmentally earlier in the case of switching pauses. We hypothesized and confirmed that mothers and infants match switching pauses but not intrapersonal pauses at 4 months, even though the infants' vocalizations are prelinguistic. Second, since there are known affective correlates of vocal congruence in adult conversation, we hypothesized a similar affective correlate for mother-infant vocal congruence. We found, for the intrapersonal pause only, that the degree of matching within a dyad correlates with infant affective engagement. We conclude, from switching pause congruence, that a turn-taking dialogic structure is being regulated in the mother-infant pair at 4 months in the same way as seen in adult conversation. Thus, both the temporal structure of adult dialogue and its affective correlate are prelinguistic.

Expressive vocal behavior and the severity of coronary artery disease.

This study sought to ascertain the relationship of expressive vocal behavior in a structured interview and the severity of coronary artery disease in a group of 79 patients referred for coronary angiography. One half of the structured interview was administered in a nonchallenging manner, the other half in a moderately challenging manner. In patients age 60 and younger, two speech measures derived from the nonchallenging interview, a computer-scored index of the frequency of simultaneous speech and judged loudness level, accounted for 38% of the variance in the patients' severity of stenosis scores, when the latter was indexed by the Gensini method. The same speech indices derived from the challenging interview segment accounted for only 18% of the variance on the patients' Gensini scores. In the older patient group, only one speech variable, speech rate in the nonchallenging interview segment, contributed to the patients' Gensini scores. The findings suggest a) that in younger patients objective, computer-scorable, speech variables correlate significantly with severity of coronary occlusion, and b) that is not essential that these speech indices be derived from a structured interview that is administered in a challenging and provocative manner. In the present study, there were no significant correlations between the participants' global TABP scores and their occlusion scores.

Adult-like temporal characteristics of mother-infant vocal interactions.

29 mothers and their 9-month-old-infants participated in a semistructured play episode. The temporal patterning of their vocal behavior was analyzed by means of a computerized analogue-to-digital conversion system (AVTA). Time-series regression analysis was employed to determine interpersonal influence over the course of the exchange for a variety of temporal parameters. The analysis revealed that the dyads engaged in alternating vocalization to a greater degree than simultaneous vocalization, and that there is a pattern of mutual influence (interpersonal accommodation) for switching pauses. The results suggest that some of the formal attributes observed in conversational exchanges between adult speakers are observable prior to the emergence of linguistic competence.

Vocal cues to deception: a comparative channel approach.

The study investigated the leakage potential of different voice and speech cues using a cue isolation and masking design. Speech samples taken from an earlier experiment were used in which 15 female students of nursing dissimulated negative affect produced by an unpleasant movie or told the truth about positive affect following a pleasant movie. Several groups of judges rated these speech samples in five conditions: (1) forward or clear, (2) electronic filtering, (3) random splicing, (4) backwards, (5) pitch inversion, (6) tone-silence sequences. The results show that vocal cues do indeed carry leakage information and that, as reflected in the differences among the conditions masking different types of cues respectively, voice quality cues may be centrally implicated. In addition, gender differences in decoding ability are discussed.

Acoustical correlates of the perception of speech rate: an experimental investigation.

The purpose of the study was to investigate the influence of vocal frequency and vocal intensity upon the perception of speech rate at three levels of actual speech rate. A single sample of spontaneous speech was electronically varied to produce nine stimulus segments that factorially combined three levels each of vocal frequency and intensity. The nine stimuli were recorded such that preceding each was the original segment that served as the standard with which each of the nine stimuli was to be compared. The speech rate of the set of nine stimulus pairs was then electronically altered to obtain a slow set, a moderate set, and a fast set, although the duration of every segment in the three sets was 20 seconds. The sets were rated by different groups of judges in terms of four 7-point scales that measured perceived speech rate, pitch, loudness, and perceived duration. The results indicate that the perception of speech rate is positively related to vocal frequency and intensity at each of the three actual speech rates, and suggest that these relationships are a function of the repeated experience of almost always hearing such covariation in spontaneously occurring speech.

The chronography of interactions with autistic speakers: an initial report.

The aims of this study were to (a) describe the conversational time patterns of autistic persons capable of talking, and (b) examine the degree to which the autistic speakers synchronize the time patterns of their speech with those of the persons with whom they interact. Each of twelve autistic youths participated in two interactions, one with an experimenter and one with his or her parent. In addition, each parent engaged in a conversation with the experimenter. The results indicate that: (a) compared with those interactions involving the parents and experimenter, those involving the youths and parents exhibited longer switching pauses whereas those involving the youths and experimenter exhibited longer switching pauses and pauses; and (b) although the parents and experimenter achieved temporal synchrony in their interactions, there was no evidence that the youths achieved it with either the experimenter or their parents.

Chronographic speech patterns of acutely psychotic patients. A preliminary note.

This study was a preliminary attempt to explore the likelihood that, for psychiatric patients, amount of vocal activity (relative to silence) reflects degree of psychopathology and change with treatment. Five acute schizophrenic patients (two men and three women) were each seen in three interviews by one of two interviewers. After each interview, the interviewer evaluated the extent of his patient's pathology in terms of the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, and he and the patient separately completed a questionnaire designed to elicit their perceptions of the interview. The results reveal that the relative amounts of the patients' vocal activity were negatively related to the interviewers' ratings of their general level of psychopathology and were also related to several aspects of their perceptions and the interviewers' perceptions of the interview. However, the number of interviews per patient was too few to permit an evaluation of treatment effects.