Using Landscape Analysis to Test Hypotheses about Drivers of Tick Abundance and Infection Prevalence with Borrelia burgdorferi.

Patterns of vector-borne disease risk are changing globally in space and time and elevated disease risk of vector-borne infection can be driven by anthropogenic modification of the environment. Incidence of Lyme disease, caused by the bacterium Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, has risen in a number of locations in North America and this increase may be driven by spatially or numerically expanding populations of the primary tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. We used a model selection approach to identify habitat fragmentation and land-use/land cover variables to test the hypothesis that the amount and configuration of forest cover at spatial scales relevant to deer, the primary hosts of adult ticks, would be the predominant determinants of tick abundance. We expected that land cover heterogeneity and amount of forest edge, a habitat thought to facilitate deer foraging and survival, would be the strongest driver of tick density and that larger spatial scales (5-10 km) would be more important than smaller scales (1 km). We generated metrics of deciduous and mixed forest fragmentation using Fragstats 4.4 implemented in ArcMap 10.3 and found, after adjusting for multicollinearity, that total forest edge within a 5 km buffer had a significant negative effect on tick density and that the proportion of forested land cover within a 10 km buffer was positively associated with density of I. scapularis nymphs. None of the 1 km fragmentation metrics were found to significantly improve the fit of the model. Elevation, previously associated with increased density of I. scapularis nymphs in Virginia, while significantly predictive in univariate analysis, was not an important driver of nymph density relative to fragmentation metrics. Our results suggest that amount of forest cover (i.e., lack of fragmentation) is the most important driver of I. scapularis density in our study system.

Ticks and tick-borne pathogens of dogs along an elevational and land-use gradient in Chiriquí province, Panamá.

Systematic acarological surveys are useful tools in assessing risk to tick-borne infections, especially in areas where consistent clinical surveillance for tick-borne disease is lacking. Our goal was to identify environmental predictors of tick burdens on dogs and tick-borne infectious agents in dog-derived ticks in the Chiriquí Province of western Panama to draw inferences about spatio-temporal variation in human risk to tick-borne diseases. We used a model-selection approach to test the relative importance of elevation, human population size, vegetative cover, and change in landuse on patterns of tick parasitism on dogs. We collected 2074 ticks, representing four species (Rhipicephalus sanguineus, R. microplus, Amblyomma ovale, and Ixodes boliviensis) from 355 dogs. Tick prevalence ranged from 0 to 74% among the sites we sampled, and abundance ranged from 0 to 20.4 ticks per dog with R. sanguineus s.l. being the most commonly detected tick species (97% of all ticks sampled). Whereas elevation was the best single determinant of tick prevalence and abundance on dogs, the top models also included predictor variables describing vegetation cover and landuse change. Specifically, low-elevation areas associated with decreasing vegetative cover were associated with highest tick occurrence on dogs, potentially because of the affinity of R. sanguineus for human dwellings. Although we found low prevalence of tick-borne pathogen genera (two Rickettsia-positive ticks, no R. rickettsia or Ehrlichia spp.) in our study, all of the tick species we collected from dogs are known vectors of zoonotic pathogens. In areas where epidemiological surveillance infrastructure is limited, field-based assessments of acarological risk can be useful and cost-effective tools in efforts to identify high-risk environments for tick-transmitted pathogens.