A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global changes on the six functional groups, in terms of their epidemiology and of the crop losses they cause. Scenario analysis enables qualitative analysis of complex systems, such as plant pathosystems that are evolving in response to global changes, including climate change and technology shifts. It also provides a useful framework for quantitative simulation modeling analysis for plant disease epidemiology.

The epidemiology of powdery mildew on concord grapes.

ABSTRACT Vitis labruscana 'Concord' is a grape cultivar widely grown in the United States for processing into juice and other grape products. Concord grapes are sporadically but sometimes severely damaged by the grape powdery mildew pathogen, Uncinula necator. Although the foliage is often reported to be moderately resistant to powdery mildew, severe fruit infection occurs in some years. We observed the seasonal development of powdery mildew on leaves, rachises, and berries of unsprayed Concord grapevines. Inoculations of flower and fruit clusters revealed a brief period of berry susceptibility and a protracted period of rachis susceptibility. The rachis remained highly susceptible to infection, and the severity of rachis infection increased throughout the growing season until the rachis formed a periderm shortly before harvest. In contrast, berries were nearly immune to infection within 2 weeks after fruit set. Rachis and berry infections were detected before the disease was observed on foliage, and the incidence of rachis and berry infection often exceeded disease incidence observed on foliage until after fruit acquired substantial ontogenic resistance. Excellent control of fruit infection, and adequate control of leaf infection, was achieved by two fungicide applications targeted at the peak period of fruit susceptibility. Although Concord is thought to be moderately resistant to powdery mildew, the rachis is highly susceptible, and may be the avenue by which prebloom infections make their way onto the developing fruit. Late-season infection of the rachis neither spread to the fruit, nor did it cause fruit to drop prematurely, and may be of little economic consequence on fruit destined for processing. Although fruit of V. vinifera cultivars have been reported to remain susceptible to infection until berry sugar levels reach 8 to 15%, Concord fruit become nearly immune to infection nearly 6 weeks before this stage of development. Because powdery mildew does not become conspicuous on foliage until late summer, it is generally regarded as a late-season problem on Concord grapes, and previous management programs have reflected this belief. However, the greatest contribution to control of fruit infection is due to fungicides applied during the peak period of fruit susceptibility, from bloom until shortly after fruit set, long before the disease is observed on foliage.