RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Emergency department crowding continues to threaten patient safety and cause poor patient outcomes. Prior models designed to predict hospital admission have had biases. Predictive models that successfully estimate the probability of patient hospital admission would be useful in reducing or preventing emergency department "boarding" and hospital "exit block" and would reduce emergency department crowding by initiating earlier hospital admission and avoiding protracted bed procurement processes. OBJECTIVE: To develop a model to predict imminent adult patient hospital admission from the emergency department early in the patient visit by utilizing existing clinical descriptors (ie, patient biomarkers) that are routinely collected at triage and captured in the hospital's electronic medical records. Biomarkers are advantageous for modeling due to their early and routine collection at triage; instantaneous availability; standardized definition, measurement, and interpretation; and their freedom from the confines of patient histories (ie, they are not affected by inaccurate patient reports on medical history, unavailable reports, or delayed report retrieval). METHODS: This retrospective cohort study evaluated 1 year of consecutive data events among adult patients admitted to the emergency department and developed an algorithm that predicted which patients would require imminent hospital admission. Eight predictor variables were evaluated for their roles in the outcome of the patient emergency department visit. Logistic regression was used to model the study data. RESULTS: The 8-predictor model included the following biomarkers: age, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, respiration rate, temperature, gender, and acuity level. The model used these biomarkers to identify emergency department patients who required hospital admission. Our model performed well, with good agreement between observed and predicted admissions, indicating a well-fitting and well-calibrated model that showed good ability to discriminate between patients who would and would not be admitted. CONCLUSIONS: This prediction model based on primary data identified emergency department patients with an increased risk of hospital admission. This actionable information can be used to improve patient care and hospital operations, especially by reducing emergency department crowding by looking ahead to predict which patients are likely to be admitted following triage, thereby providing needed information to initiate the complex admission and bed assignment processes much earlier in the care continuum.
