Assessing specific deterrence effects of increased speeding penalties using four measures of recidivism.

Traffic law enforcement sanctions can impact on road user behaviour through general and specific deterrence mechanisms. The manner in which specific deterrence can influence recidivist behaviour can be conceptualised in different ways. While any reduction in speeding will have road safety benefits, the ways in which a 'reduction' is determined deserves greater methodological attention and has implications for countermeasure evaluation more generally. The primary aim of this research was to assess the specific deterrent impact of penalty increases for speeding offences in Queensland, Australia, in 2003 on two cohorts of drivers detected for speeding prior to and after the penalty changes were investigated. Since the literature is relatively silent on how to assess recidivism in the speeding context, the secondary research aim was to contribute to the literature regarding ways to conceptualise and measure specific deterrence in the speeding context. We propose a novel way of operationalising four measures which reflect different ways in which a specific deterrence effect could be conceptualised: (1) the proportion of offenders who re-offended in the follow up period; (2) the overall frequency of re-offending in the follow up period; (3) the length of delay to re-offence among those who re-offended; and (4) the average number of re-offences during the follow up period among those who re-offended. Consistent with expectations, results suggested an absolute deterrent effect of penalty changes, as evidenced by significant reductions in the proportion of drivers who re-offended and the overall frequency of re-offending, although effect sizes were small. Contrary to expectations, however, there was no evidence of a marginal specific deterrent effect among those who re-offended, with a significant reduction in the length of time to re-offence and no significant change in the average number of offences committed. Additional exploratory analyses investigating potential influences of the severity of the index offence, offence history, and method of detection revealed mixed results. Access to additional data from various sources suggested that the main findings were not influenced by changes in speed enforcement activity, public awareness of penalty changes, or driving exposure during the study period. Study limitations and recommendations for future research are discussed with a view to promoting more extensive evaluations of penalty changes and better understanding of how such changes may impact on motorists' perceptions of enforcement and sanctions, as well as on recidivist behaviour.

Profiling high-range speeding offenders: investigating criminal history, personal characteristics, traffic offences, and crash history.

This paper reports profiling information for speeding offenders and is part of a larger project that assessed the deterrent effects of increased speeding penalties in Queensland, Australia, using a total of 84,456 speeding offences. The speeding offenders were classified into three groups based on the extent and severity of an index offence: once-only low-rang offenders; repeat high-range offenders; and other offenders. The three groups were then compared in terms of personal characteristics, traffic offences, crash history and criminal history. Results revealed a number of significant differences between repeat high-range offenders and those in the other two offender groups. Repeat high-range speeding offenders were more likely to be male, younger, hold a provisional and a motorcycle licence, to have committed a range of previous traffic offences, to have a significantly greater likelihood of crash involvement, and to have been involved in multiple-vehicle crashes than drivers in the other two offender types. Additionally, when a subset of offenders' criminal histories were examined, results revealed that repeat high-range speeding offenders were also more likely to have committed a previous criminal offence compared to once only low-range and other offenders and that 55.2% of the repeat high-range offenders had a criminal history. They were also significantly more likely to have committed drug offences and offences against order than the once only low-range speeding offenders, and significantly more likely to have committed regulation offences than those in the other offenders group. Overall, the results indicate that speeding offenders are not an homogeneous group and that, therefore, more tailored and innovative sanctions should be considered and evaluated for high-range recidivist speeders because they are a high-risk road user group.

Fatalism and its implications for risky road use and receptiveness to safety messages: a qualitative investigation in Pakistan.

Given the increasing vehicle numbers and expanding road construction in developing countries, the importance of safe road user behaviour is critical. Road traffic crashes (RTCs) are a significant problem in Pakistan; however, the factors that contribute to RTCs in Pakistan are not well researched. Fatalistic beliefs are a potential barrier to the enhancement of road safety, especially participation in health-promoting and injury prevention behaviours, and also contribute to risk taking. Fatalistic beliefs relating to road safety have been found in some developing countries, although research is scarce and indicates that the nature and extent of fatalism differs in each country. Qualitative research was undertaken with a range of drivers, religious orators, police and policy makers to explore associations between fatalism, risky road use and associated issues. Findings indicate that fatalistic beliefs are pervasive in Pakistan, are strongly linked with religion, present a likely barrier to road safety messages and contribute to risky road use. Fatalism appears to be a default attribution of RTC and the intensity of belief in fate surpasses the kinds of fatalism noted in the limited existing literature. These findings have importance to developing road safety countermeasures in countries where fatalistic beliefs are strong.

A randomized controlled trial comparing hydration therapy to additional hemodialysis or N-acetylcysteine for the prevention of contrast medium-induced nephropathy: the Dialysis-versus-Diuresis (DVD) Trial.

Contrast medium-induced nephropathy (CIN) is a serious complication with increasing frequency and an unfavorable prognosis. Previous analyses of surrogate parameters have suggested beneficial effects of hemodialysis that are assessed in this randomized clinical trial. We performed a prospective single-center trial in 424 consecutive patients with serum creatinine concentrations between 1.3- 3.5 mg/dl who underwent elective coronary angiography. Patients were randomized to one of three treatment strategies with all patients receiving pre- and postprocedural hydration: One group received no additional therapy, patients in the second group were hemodialyzed once, and the third group received oral N-acetylcysteine. The frequency of CIN (defined as an increase in serum creatinine>or=0.5 mg/dl) from 48 to 72 h after catheterization was 6.1% in the hydration-only group, 15.9% with hemodialysis treatment, and 5.3% in the N-ACC group (intention-to-treat analysis; P=0.008). There were no differences between the treatment groups with regard to increased (>or=0.5 mg/dl) serum creatinine concentrations after 30-60 days (4.8%, 5.1%, and 3.1%, respectively; P=0.700). Analyses of long-term follow-up (range 63 to 1316 days) by Cox regressions models of the study groups found quite similar survival rates (P=0.500). In contrast to other (retrospective) studies, long-term survival of patients with vs those without CIN within 72 h was not different, but patients who still had elevated creatinine concentrations at 30-60 days suffered from a markedly higher 2-year mortality (46% vs 17%, P=0.002). In conclusion, hemodialysis in addition to hydration therapy for the prevention of CIN provided no evidence for any outcome benefit but evidence for probable harm. Increased creatinine concentrations at 30-60 days, but not within 72 h, were associated with markedly reduced long-term survival.