Long-term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation.

Understanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter-spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 237%-285% across time, while two larger spring-summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (1-1.5 years) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (2-4 years) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (Tmax ) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with Tmax were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines in species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicates that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change on biodiversity must consider a broad array of ecological processes.

Influence of local and landscape factors on distributional dynamics: a species-centred, fitness-based approach.

In spatially structured populations, distributional dynamics are driven by the quantity, connectivity and quality of habitat. Because these drivers are rarely measured directly and simultaneously at relevant scales, information on their relative importance remains unclear. I assessed the influence of both direct and indirect measures of local habitat quality, and of landscape habitat amount and connectivity on long-term territory occupancy dynamics of non-migratory pygmy owls. Direct measures of local habitat quality based on territory-specific reproductive output had greater effects on distribution than landscape factors, but only when spatio-temporal fluxes in performance linked to environmental stochasticity and intraspecific competition were considered. When habitat quality was measured indirectly based on habitat structure, however, landscape factors had greater effects. Although all landscape factors were important, measures of landscape connectivity that were uncorrelated with habitat amount and based on attributes of matrix structure and habitat configuration that influence dispersal movements had greater effects than habitat effective area (amount weighted by quality). Moreover, the influence of connectivity (but not habitat effective area) depended on local habitat quality. Such results suggest the relative importance of local habitat quality in driving distribution has been underestimated and that conservation strategies should vary spatially depending on both local and landscape contexts.

Spatial, temporal, and density-dependent components of habitat quality for a desert owl.

Spatial variation in resources is a fundamental driver of habitat quality but the realized value of resources at any point in space may depend on the effects of conspecifics and stochastic factors, such as weather, which vary through time. We evaluated the relative and combined effects of habitat resources, weather, and conspecifics on habitat quality for ferruginous pygmy-owls (Glaucidium brasilianum) in the Sonoran Desert of northwest Mexico by monitoring reproductive output and conspecific abundance over 10 years in and around 107 territory patches. Variation in reproductive output was much greater across space than time, and although habitat resources explained a much greater proportion of that variation (0.70) than weather (0.17) or conspecifics (0.13), evidence for interactions among each of these components of the environment was strong. Relative to habitat that was persistently low in quality, high-quality habitat buffered the negative effects of conspecifics and amplified the benefits of favorable weather, but did not buffer the disadvantages of harsh weather. Moreover, the positive effects of favorable weather at low conspecific densities were offset by intraspecific competition at high densities. Although realized habitat quality declined with increasing conspecific density suggesting interference mechanisms associated with an Ideal Free Distribution, broad spatial heterogeneity in habitat quality persisted. Factors linked to food resources had positive effects on reproductive output but only where nest cavities were sufficiently abundant to mitigate the negative effects of heterospecific enemies. Annual precipitation and brooding-season temperature had strong multiplicative effects on reproductive output, which declined at increasing rates as drought and temperature increased, reflecting conditions predicted to become more frequent with climate change. Because the collective environment influences habitat quality in complex ways, integrated approaches that consider habitat resources, stochastic factors, and conspecifics are necessary to accurately assess habitat quality.

Importance of environmental and spatial gradients on patterns and consequences of resource selection.

Strategies to conserve rare species require identifying resources that function as important habitat elements and that promote high demographic performance. Assessing the relative importance of resources, however, can be confounded by natural variation in resource availability and by the hierarchical spatial structure in which resources are organized. Because availability and relative importance of resources often vary across environmental and spatial gradients, we used gradients together with resource selection functions and variance decomposition to assess the relative importance of resources to nest site selection and reproductive performance of Ferruginous Pygmy-Owls (Glaucidium brasilianum). We measured habitat characteristics of 106 nests and paired available sites at five spatial scales across a 220-km gradient of precipitation and vegetation in northwest Mexico, in a region adjacent to the southwestern United States where pygmy-owls have declined to near extinction. Resources explained 76-85% of variation in nest site selection and 21-31% of variation in reproductive performance across all spatial scales combined. Although we found evidence of resource selection at each scale, the magnitude of selection and influence of resources on reproductive performance were greatest where availability of selected resources were low and where temperature extremes and predation risk likely increased the relative importance of these resources. At larger scales, geographic changes in resource use corresponded with changes in availability, whereas at smaller scales, resource use varied little despite changes in availability, suggesting higher specificity and importance of resources at smaller scales. At the smallest scale, owls selected nest cavities with smaller entrances, larger volume, greater height, and orientations that produced cooler microclimates in the hottest regions of the study area; these choices promoted higher reproductive performance. Cavity resources explained more variation in selection and reproductive performance than resources at larger scales, highlighting their importance as conservation targets. High correlation of resource characteristics among spatial scales, however, indicated that selection of resources at small scales depended on characteristics of resources at larger scales. Assessing how resource selection changes in response to underlying variation in resource availability can help prioritize resources most important for conservation and management.

Potential effects of the United States-Mexico border fence on wildlife.

Security infrastructure along international boundaries threatens to degrade connectivity for wildlife. To explore potential effects of a fence under construction along the U.S.-Mexico border on wildlife, we assessed movement behavior of two species with different life histories whose regional persistence may depend on transboundary movements. We used radiotelemetry to assess how vegetation and landscape structure affect flight and natal dispersal behaviors of Ferruginous Pygmy-Owls (Glaucidium brasilianum), and satellite telemetry, gene-flow estimates, and least-cost path models to assess movement behavior and interpopulation connectivity of desert bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis mexicana). Flight height of Pygmy-Owls averaged only 1.4 m (SE 0.1) above ground, and only 23% of flights exceeded 4 m. Juvenile Pygmy-Owls dispersed at slower speeds, changed direction more, and had lower colonization success in landscapes with larger vegetation openings or higher levels of disturbance (p < or = 0.047), which suggests large vegetation gaps coupled with tall fences may limit transboundary movements. Female bighorn sheep crossed valleys up to 4.9 km wide, and microsatellite analyses indicated relatively high levels of gene flow and migration (95% CI for F(ST)=0.010-0.115, Nm = 1.9-24.8, M =10.4-15.4) between populations divided by an 11-km valley. Models of gene flow based on regional topography and movement barriers suggested that nine populations of bighorn sheep in northwestern Sonora are linked by dispersal with those in neighboring Arizona. Disruption of transboundary movement corridors by impermeable fencing would isolate some populations on the Arizona side. Connectivity for other species with similar movement abilities and spatial distributions may be affected by border development, yet mitigation strategies could address needs of wildlife and humans.